2024 Big 12 win totals: Analyzing schedule projections in college football's greatest grab-bag conference this fall

We’ve officially hit the dog days of the college football offseason, as recruiting takes center stage over the next month while teams eagerly (or wearily!) await media days and training camp. 

The transfer portal has mostly been emptied of impact players and most all 2024 signees are on campus by now, too. Overall, we have as good of a read on these teams that we’ll get until August. 

Not too long ago, Fan Duel updated its 2024 regular-season win totals.

We kickstarted the series looking at the latest SEC projections. Then I analyzed the Big Ten and ACC win totals.

We conclude the series with the heartland conference, which is the grab-bag league that is the Big 12 in 2024. With Texas and Oklahoma now in the SEC, there’s a power vacuum at the top and that’s illustrated quite clearly with the league’s win totals this fall. 

The Big Ten has nine teams with over/unders set between 9.5 and 7.5 (including six of the latter). And that doesn’t even include West Virginia, which considers itself a possible conference contender, too. The conference should be super wacky and super wide-open. 

With the latest information post-portal, post-spring, here’s a little Too High? Too Low? Just Right? with the 2024 Big 12 win total projections. 

Arizona: 7-5 — Just Right

The Wildcats are changing conferences with a new head coach and a roster that looks a lot differently than the one that won 10 games for the first time in a decade in 2023. Former San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan did well to convince quarterback Noah Fifita, wideout Tetairoa McMillan and corner Tacario Davis to stick around, but there’s a reason why the potential Big 12 preseason favorites saw their over/under drop after losing head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington and a host depth pieces to transfers. 

Arizona has a rocky road slate this fall, with games at Kansas State, Utah, UCF, TCU and BYU (four teams with some of the highest win-totals in the league). 

Arizona State: 4.5 — Too High

Kenny Dillingham has played roster roulette in his first two offseason with the Sun Devils, with a constant churn of outgoing and incoming players. The result is a team that has some solid upside pieces (tailback Cam Skattebo and Michigan State transfer quarterback Sam Leavitt) but lacks star power and depth. 

The Sun Devils are coming off a 3-9 season with a similar roster and a more difficult schedule, so I’m not exactly sure why their win-total sits where it does. They host Mississippi State and play all the top projected teams in the Big 12 this season (Utah, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Arizona and Texas Tech). 

Baylor: 5.5 — Just Right

After back-to-back 3-9 seasons, Dave Aranda is getting the 2023 Neal Brown treatment — i.e., you better win now to save your job. Aranda fired both his coordinators this offseason, taking over the defense himself and swiping Jake Spavital away from Cal. After averaging just 23.1 points per game last season, the Bears brought in Toledo transfer quarterback Dequan Finn to infuse the offense with some juice. 

Will the moves add up to make a bowl game, though? Maybe? The schedule is littered with toss-up games, and the final month of the year (TCU, West Virginia, Houston and Kansas) will likely decide Aranda’s fate — and Baylor’s hopes of returning to the postseason. 

BYU: 4.5 — Just Right

The Cougars went 5-7 in their debut season in the Big 12, and now bookmakers believe they’re in for an even tougher Year 2. Why? Well, they return largely the same offense that struggled badly last season, with continued uncertainty at quarterback (either ex-Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon or Jake Retzlaff) and a schedule that features back-to-back road games in the non-conference (SMU, Wyoming). 

Utah’s membership into the Big 12 means the return of the Holy War, and the Cougars also draw top contenders Kansas State, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas and UCF — all games they will be underdogs in.

Cincinnati: 5.5 — Just Right

The Bearcats project to be much more competitive in their second season in a power conference, as Scott Satterfield addressed a host of roster holes this offseason. He upgraded Cincy’s quarterback spot (Brendan Sorsby from Indiana) and added a bunch of defensive pieces. The Bearcats also return all five starting offensive linemen and top tailback Corey Kiner. 

Cincy has among the most favorable Big 12 schedules this fall, too, providing the program a real opportunity to return to the postseason. The non-conference slate consists of three very winnable games, and there’s no Utah, Arizona, Kansas or Oklahoma State on the slate.

Colorado: 5.5 — Just Right

Deion Sanders flipped the roster against this offseason, adding 28 newcomers to the Buffs’ depth chart — focusing mainly on offensive and defensive linemen. If Colorado can protect quarterback Shedeur Sanders better, it could have the best QB1 in the Big 12. That ‘if’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting, though. The defense should be better, especially against the run, but there are still major depth concerns across the two-deep. Overall, the talent looks improved but this is still an extremely unpredictable team. 

Along with Arizona State, the Buffs drew the short-stick among the Big 12 newbies with a very difficult schedule. They play open against FCS powerhouse North Dakota State and play at Nebraska a week later. They play almost every formidable team in the Big 12 and don’t draw the likes of Houston, BYU or Arizona State. I could easily see Colorado going 4-8 or 8-4. The variance is that wide.

Houston: 4.5 — Too High

Dana Holgorsen didn’t leave Willie Fritz a whole lot to work with, which is why the Cougars have the lowest preseason win-total in the Big 12. Even 26 transfers can’t mask some of the foundational problems within the program, and uncertainty at quarterback ( Donovan Smith missed all of spring practice following offseason shoulder surgery) doesn’t help the situation. 

The Cougars went 4-8 a season ago, and it’ll be a tall task for them to even replicate that record against a schedule that features a road trip to Oklahoma, and a crazy difficult home slate that sees Iowa State, Utah and Kansas State all coming to Houston. 

Iowa State: 7.5 — Just Right

The Cyclones rank No. 1 nationally in returning production, bringing back promising quarterback Rocco Becht as well as nine defensive starters off a unit that led the Big 12 in yards per play allowed (5.2). If the chips fall right, Matt Campbell team could be a dark horse contender for the conference. Iowa State should still be among the best in the league defensively, and Becht could see a sophomore surge playing behind the same five offensive linemen and his top three targets all back. 

If the Cyclones can win their share of coin-flip games, this could be a 9-3 team. But there are enough potholes on the schedule (at Iowa, at WVU, at Kansas, at Utah, vs. Kansas State) that they could also finish 7-5 or 6-6.

Kansas: 8.5 — Just Right

Lance Leipold has vastly exceeded expectations in his first three years in Lawrence, taking over a moribund program and turning the Jayhawks into a legitimate Big 12 contender. The 2024 team stands to be his most talented yet, and while he lost his longtime lieutenant Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State this offseason, Kansas does bring back quarterback Jalon Daniels and star tailback Devin Neal (1,280 yards, 16 touchdowns) and the team’s top three wideouts.

It feels like the Jayhawks’ preseason could be higher if they were playing true home game this fall, but with Memorial Stadium being renovated, they’ll split time between Arrowhead Stadium and the soccer stadium for Sporting KC. Kansas hasn’t won nine regular season games in 16 seasons. Is this the year?

Kansas State: 9.5 — Too Low

The Wildcats, along with Utah, have the highest preseason over/under in the muddled Big 12, looking to win double-digit games for the second time in three years.  Chris Klieman‘s teams are known for their blue-collar, lunch-pale toughness, but 2024 K-State stand to be regarded for their offensive firepower. Electric sophomore Avery Johnson is now the team’s starting quarterback, and the Wildcats have one of the best two-headed tailback tandems in the league with DJ Giddens, who had over 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023, and ex-Colorado speedster Dylan Edwards.

Klieman reloaded the defensive depth chart with some spring signees, and despite some likely growing pains replacing four starting offensive linemen, the Wildcats stand to be favored in at least 10 games this fall. Even in a ultra-competitive Big 12, a 10-2 season looks more than reasonable. 

Oklahoma State: 7.5 — Too Low

Led by potential Heisman Trophy candidate Ollie Gordon II at tailback, Mike Gundy has a veteran squad looking to get back to the Big 12 Championship this fall. The Pokes return 20 of 22 starters and rank No. 4 in ESPN’s returning production metrics. The Cowboys’ linebacker unit ranks among the best nationally, and they have one of the better receiver rooms in the conference, too, with Brennan Presley, Rashod Owens and Oklahoma transfer Gavin Freeman. 

If the Cowboys can avoid a major regression in one-score games (5-1 in 2023), then this is a team more than capable of winning 8-9 games in the Big 12. The schedule is a bit funky with six true road games, but with no Oklahoma or Texas on the slate, most of their away games are very manageable (Tulsa, BYU, Baylor, TCU, Colorado) outside of a hard trip to Kansas State. 

TCU: 7.5 — Just Right

The Horned Frogs are a tough team to read in 2024, as they should have one of the more talented rosters in the conference but there are enough question marks to give bookmakers pause to post a number that might look low. TCU’s went portal-heavy (especially on defense) with 20+ transfers including Notre Dame wideout Braylon James and edge Nana Osafo-Mensah. But Sonny Dykes also saw several of his top players leave the program this offseason, headlined by All-Big 12 defensive tackle Damonic Williams. 

The schedule is one of the more navigable in the Big 12, but with a Week 4 date with crosstown rival SMU and questions around quarterback Josh Hoover’s heath and former Boise State head coach Andy Avalos‘ ability to get the most out of a defense with totally different personnel in 2024, their preseason number is probably just right. 

Texas Tech: 7.5 — Too Low

The Red Raiders were considered a sleeper Big 12 contender last season, but Joey McGuire‘s team didn’t find its groove until November — which was far too late for a potential storybook season. Perhaps those prognostications were just a year too early, though? Sophomore Behren Morton and star tailback Tahj Brooks (1,538 yards, 10 touchdowns) are both back, and the offense also added 5-star wideout Micah Hudson, Arizona State tight end Jalin Conyers and Washington State’s No. 1 wideout Josh Kelly. The offensive line has been restocked with four transfers as well. 

The schedule sets up nicely, with Texas Tech realistically eying a 5-0 start before a road trip to Arizona. This number originally opened at 8.5, and while that might seem high for a Red Raiders’ team that hasn’t won that many regular-season games since 2009 when Mike Leach was the head coach, I think that was the correct total. The floor for this team looks like 8-4 this fall.

UCF: 7.5 — Just Right

The Knights were the best of the Big 12 newcomers last year, and yet Gus Malzahn had his first losing season as a head coach. So UCF went portal hunting this offseason — adding impact playmakers like quarterback KJ Jefferson, tailback Peny Boone, corner Tre’quon Fegons, edge Nyjalik Kelly and safety Deshawn Pace. With Jefferson, plus super-senior tailback RJ Harvey (1,400 yards, 16 touchdowns), Boone and Cincy transfer tailback Myles Montgomery, the Knights might have the best rushing attack in the nation in 2024. Can a new-look defense make a big leap thanks to all the portal additions?

UCF’s schedule is among the better of all the Big 12 teams (the Knights get five of the six teams with the lowest preseason win-totals in the conference), but this number opened at 8.5 and dropped to 7.5 because it might be too much to ask for a team that plays a lot of 50/50 games with all of its toughest tests away from the Bounce House (at Florida, at TCU, at WVU, at Iowa State).  

Utah: 9.5 — Just Right

In its final season in the Pac-12, the Utes slipped to 8-5 in the 2023, playing the entire season without quarterback Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe. Both are back in 2024, as is tailback Micah Bernard, who missed most of last year, too. Utah isn’t known for its transfer portal prowess, but Kyle Whittingham beefed up the offensive roster with a trio of playmakers (Dorian Singer, Traeshaun Lyons and Damien Alford). 

Utah received the friendliest schedule for its first season in a new conference, playing all three former Pac-12 schools while avoiding Kansas State, Kansas and Texas Tech. The non-con slate is a joke, with two patsies and a previously scheduled game against Baylor, which won’t count in the Big 12 standings. A 10 or 11-win season appears to be on the docket. 

West Virginia: 6.5 — Too Low

After being picked to finish last in the Big 12 last season, Neal Brown saved his job with a 9-4 season. His reward? One of the harder schedules in the Big 12, which despite a roster that features one of the top quarterbacks in the Big 12 (Garrett Greene), and a great complimentary duo in the backfield (Jaheim White and CJ Donaldson), the Mountaineers are considered a fringe bowl team this fall. WVU lost a lot defensively, but Brown did ink 10 transfers (going super heavy on defensive backs) in hopes of addressing the slew of vacancies. 

West Virginia could be much better than a mid-tier Big 12 team in 2024, but this is a team that play 11 Power Conference games — with an opener against Penn State, the Backyard Brawl with Pitt and Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kanas State, Iowa State, UCF and Texas Tech all on the schedule. The good news is many of their hardest games are in Morgantown but it’s still a rough slate to navigate.