2024 Bold Predictions: 10 Things I Think will happen in college football this fall
With Week 0 in the books, we’re officially done with ‘Talkin’ SZN’. Now, we get games galore for the next four months, setting the stage for the longest college football season of all time with the introduction of the 12-team playoff.
So it’s time for some final prognostications. Earlier this month, I released my preseason playoff picks and I’ve made one slight edit — although not the one you probably think! — but the rest of the bracket remains the same.
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In Part II of the series, I’m doling out a random collection of 10 bold predictions for the 2024 season. Last season, I had a solid hit-rate in this very exercise, including picking Michigan to be the No. 1 seed in the CFP and for Jim Harbaugh to coach his final season with the Wolverines.
Can I replicate such prognostications again this fall? We’ll see. Some takes are spicier than others, but the following 10 Things I Think have varying ranges of heat.
So save the receipts. I’ll circle back to see how I did on these picks in five months.
1. This will be Lane Kiffin’s final season at Ole Miss
I’m calling my shot again this year. I don’t know if it’s a premonition. A gut feeling. Maybe even a blind shot in the dark, but Kiffin has flirted with moving on from Oxford for several years now. He nearly took the Auburn job in 2023, and while he received a big contract extension from the Rebels this offseason, his buyout is reportedly still only $4 million.
Ole Miss is going all-in on the 2024 season, with the team’s roster due for a significant reset in 2025. If the Rebels have a special, storied season then maybe Kiffin parlays his career renaissance back into the NFL. Maybe he becomes the frontrunner for the Florida job should the Gators move on from Billy Napier. If Ole Miss’ season doesn’t go according to script, Kiffin could be eyeing a fresh start elsewhere anyway. Kiffin has played chicken with Ole Miss’ administration several times already, and this is the year the “Portal King” makes a move himself.
2. Jalen Milroe leads all Power 4 quarterbacks in total touchdowns
My On3 colleague Andy Staples selected Alabama’s quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick in our 2024 QB Fantasy Draft earlier this month — and will good reason. Milroe is that electric, and although there’s plenty of volatility to his game, he has the potential to put up bananas numbers in Kalen DeBoer’s offense.
In his first season as a starter (one in which he was benched for the USF game), Milroe had 35 total touchdowns. I think that number is closer to 50 this year — and is tops among all power conference QBs. Milroe averaged 6.3 yards per carry on actual rushing attempts, with 12 touchdowns. DeBoer will lean even harder on Milroe’s wheels.
3. Penn State misses the inaugural 12-team playoff
I had the Nittany Lions ranked No. 11 in my 2024 Preseason Top 25 — meaning James Franklin’s program would be one spot short of making the inaugural 12-team field with Utah (my Big 12 champ) and Boise State (my Group of 5 rep) slotted further down the rankings. If this happens, Happy Valley may be home to riots — especially after PSU fans have been told for two years that the expanded playoff exists precisely for their tier of team.
We know the defense is going to be legit, even with a change at coordinator, but what if Andy Kotelnicki is 2023 Garrett Riley? It’s the perfect hire on paper, but what happens if Franklin’s fingerprints remain all over the offense? There’s enough uncertainty for me to see the Nittany Lions just on the outside looking in.
4. Zero teams in the Top 10 finish the season unranked
Considering Florida State already lost in Week 0, this is a pretty spicy take. In 20 of the last 21 seasons, a preseason Top 10 team has finished unranked. In recent years, the usual suspects have been Texas A&M (twice in a row) and USC.
It won’t happen this fall, though. With expanded conferences and upcoming 12-team playoff, teams will not be as penalized for losing games — particularly premier blueblood programs. We’re going to see a lot of 9-3, 8-4 teams at bottom-half of the rankings come December, which is why FSU (and maybe schools like Michigan, Notre Dame or Penn State) should safely remain in the Top 25.
5. Billy Napier and Dave Aranda survive to coach in 2025
Two of college football’s hot seat du jour candidates are Florida’s Billy Napier and Baylor’s Dave Aranda. Their tenuous job security isn’t unwarranted, either. Napier is just 11-14 with two losing seasons in Gainesville, while Aranda is still clinging to a Big 12 title in 2022 sandwiched between three losing campaigns.
And yet, imminent doom is not guaranteed for either embattled head coach.
Napier has not carried himself like a head coach who’s about to be canned, and despite an all-time gnarly schedule, he may have received a lifeline with the university’s current regime change at president. If Florida can find its way to six wins, Napier likely returns to the sidelines in 2025. Aranda did the Neal Brown 2.0 dance this offseason, firing his defensive coordinator and putting himself in charge. He hired Cal’s Jake Spavital to jumpstart a listless offense and brought in All-MAC quarterback Dequan Finn. The Bears are not expected to be a bowl team in 2024, but Arnada has been given the chance to map out his new vision for the program (including the way Baylor now recruits). He’ll do enough this fall to see another year.
6. Iowa State makes the Big 12 title game
The Cyclones were picked to finish sixth in the Big 12 according to the preseason media poll, and Matt Campbell’s program is being badly shortchanged. The league is wide-open this year, with carnage coming considering some 10ish teams nominally believe they can compete for a conference title.
Utah is my pick to win the league, but Iowa State — with Rocco Becht back at quarterback, nine starters returning on defense and no gambling scandal to worry about — shoot up the standings and make it to Dallas over the likes of Oklahoma State, Kansas or Kansas State. The biggest hurdle for the Cyclones? One of the tougher schedules among all the grab-bag Big 12 contenders.
7. Tennessee will finish as a Top 5 team in the SEC
The majority of attention on SEC teams this offseason has centered around the changes at Alabama and Texas A&M, the new kids on the block in Texas and Oklahoma and the ‘This is our year’ squads in Ole Miss and Missouri. But the eye of Mordor should be more focused on Knoxville. If Nico Iamaleava is a game-changer from Day 1, then this stands to be Josh Heupel’s most complete team at Tennessee. The Vols finished seventh in the preseason SEC Media Poll, but they have the makings of a fringe CFP team — which means they’ll wined up somewhere in the Top 5 of the league.
8. Arch Manning, Julian Sayin and Dante Moore all start a game this fall
Hello, former prized 5-star recruits turned ballyhooed backup quarterbacks! I don’t make this prediction in earnest, but we’re about to embark on the longest season in college football history, so there are bound to be more quarterback injuries.
All three of these former top prospects play for teams expected to compete for a national title (so a 16-17 game season is very possible) and all three play behind starting quarterbacks with injury history.
Quinn Ewers missed two starts last season. Dillon Gabriel missed almost the entire 2021 season and was knocked out of the game in 2022. Will Howard is the healthiest of the trio, but he’s also been dinged up previously and is going to be featured heavily in Ohio State’s run game — further exposing him to injury.
Would it truly be a shock if all three blue-chip backups are counted on to start a game in 2024?
9. Colorado will lose at Nebraska but beat one of Kansas State, Utah or Oklahoma State
Contrary to Deion Sanders’ own beliefs, the Buffs are not a CFP team in 2024. They’re probably not another 4-8 team, either. Sanders has upgraded the roster (especially along the front-seven and offensive line) to flirt with at least bowl eligibility.
To get to six wins though likely means Colorado must pick off one of the favorites in the Big 12 — especially if it loses at Nebraska in Week 2. The Cornhuskers stand to be a much more competent team in Matt Rhule’s second season. They’re not going to turn the ball over four times and go 4-of-13 on third downs against Colorado again.
So the Buffs lose in Lincoln, but they upset on the Big 12’s top contenders — all three of which come to Boulder this season.
10. Georgia breaks its own NFL Draft record with 16 picks
We’ll have to wait a while on this one (the 2025 NFL Draft isn’t until the end of April in Green Bay), but Kirby Smart’s team is loaded for bare this fall and will topple his 2022 team’s record of 15 picks. The Bulldogs won’t have five first-rounders this time, but the roster is flush with guys slated to get selected in rounds 2-5.
Mykell Williams, Malaki Starks and Carson Beck are all very viable Day 1 picks, while Tate Ratledge, Dylan Fairchild, Earnest Greene, Trevor Etienne, Oscar Delp and Dillion Bell could all come off the board sometime on Day 2. Then the Bulldogs have another 10+ draft-eligible players who could work their way into coveted pro prospects.