2024 Conference Realignment: Could the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 all feature first-year programs winning their new league?

Monday kickstarted a month of conference realignment moves becoming official, as Oklahoma and Texas became rubber-stamped members of the SEC. 

The ACC also welcomed SMU this week, while Cal and Stanford will join the league next month. 

On August 1, USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington will officially move to the Big Ten, while the Big 12 will welcome Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. In the Group of 5, Army is now a member of the AAC, while Kennesaw State joined Conference USA. 

Got all that?

The dizzying amount of movement has dramatically shifted the makeup of the sport, as the latest round of realignment has further consolidated the power in the SEC and Big Ten. 

So what does that mean for these teams this fall?

Typically, programs changing conference affiliations — be it G5 programs jumping to a Power Conference, Independents joining a league or an FCS programs becoming members of the FBS — struggle with the transition in Year 1. 

Jamey Chadwell’s Liberty Flames won the C-USA in its first year in the league last season, joining a small set of historical outliers to compete for conference titles in Year 1 post-realignment. Miami famously won the 1991 national title in its first season in the Big East, while Florida State won the ACC nine seasons in a row after it joined the league. 

But in the modern era of college football, teams typically experience early growing pains switching leagues.  

Only maybe not in 2024?

This year’s conference realignment musical chairs is unique because it features several power conference schools that are among the favorites to win their new leagues. 

Two teams (Texas and Oregon) stand to be among the top programs in the sport — contending not only for conference titles but the national championship — while two others (Utah and Arizona) could absolutely win their conference and claim a spot in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. 

While unlikely, it’s absolutely possible that the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 could all have Year 1 title usurpers this fall. 

Oklahoma has championship hopes in the future, but the Sooners project to be — at best — CFP spoilers this fall. However, their rival Texas is a legitimate threat to win the SEC in its first season in the league. 

The Longhorns boast one of the most talented rosters in the country, and Steve Sarkisian & Co., have spared no expense to make sure the transfer portal has plugged any holes on the depth chart. 

Texas is already puffing its chest before joining the league, too, with quarterback Quinn Ewers claiming the Longhorns will be the bullseye team for every school on their schedule. Texas has a very navigable path to get to Atlanta in Year 1. 

Similarly, Oregon is set up to go toe-to-toe with Ohio State for the Big Ten crown in 2024. The Ducks host the Buckeyes and they avoid Penn State, Iowa and Nebraska. Dan Lanning has assembled an SEC-esque squad in Eugene, stacking a couple of Top 5 recruiting classes on top of a transfer portal haul that includes quarterback Dillon Gabriel, wideout Evan Stewart and corner Jabbar Muhammad. 

Aside from the Buckeyes, Oregon is already separating itself from the rest of the league in terms of accumulating talent, so winning the conference in Year 1 wouldn’t be a huge surprise. 

Lastly, Kyle Whittingham’s team is the favorite to win the Big 12. The wide-open league saw five schools earn first-place votes in a recent media poll, with Utah edging out Kansas State. 

The Utes won the Pac-12 title in 2021 and 2022, but a rash of injuries to quarterback Cam Rising, tight end Brant Kuthie, tailback Micah Bernard and others thwarted any hopes of a three-peat last season. 

Rising, Kuthie and Bernard are all back this fall, though, and Whittingham added several perimeter playmakers from the portal. The team’s schedule is much lighter compared to recent seasons, too, as the Utes avoid K-State and Kansas. 

Unlike the SEC or Big Ten though, Utah isn’t the lone new member capable of winning the conference this fall. Arizona received five first-place votes and has the quarterback capable of leading the Wildcats to a title. 

Noah Fifita could be the best quarterback in the Big 12 this fall, and ‘Cats wideout Tetairoa McMillan is absolutely the top receiver in the league. The duo led Arizona to 10 wins in 2023, and while the schedule isn’t very forgiving (road games at Kansas State, Utah, UCF and TCU), the conference could cannibalize itself so much that Arizona could make its way to the title game even with multiple losses.