2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch begins to take shape

The NCAA Tournament picture continues to take shape, as non-conference resumes become official and conference matchups take place across college basketball. For some, that means the pressure of the bubble is heating up.

Every team’s position at this point is extremely fluid, with some teams safely in the field just one bad week away from a bubble conversation. Likewise, many bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2025 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

Arizona (14)

After starting the season inside the Top 25, Arizona make a quick slide down the board, bringing their NCAA Tournament resume into question for much of the non-conference slate. However, after shaking off a slow start, the Wildcats have things back on track entering conference play.

The path to March Madness for Arizona is quite simple, keep on track. The Big 12 will provide plenty more opportunities to move up further, without many singular games capable of dragging them down. Therefor, slow and steady is the way to make the postseason.

Wisconsin (24)

Wisconsin suffered a three-game skid to start December, including two conference games. Since then, the Badgers have rattled off four wins to bring themselves back above the bubble and into the Big Ten mix.

The wins over teams also fighting to get in the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation this month serve two purposes, as will many of the upcoming games on the schedule throughout the next two months. A strong run in conference play could take Wisconsin safely above the line for good.

West Virginia (33)

In Year One under Darian DeVries, not many would have predicted a late December surge onto the bubble for West Virginia – especially with injuries to several key players. However, that is exactly what has happened as the Mountaineers look to make an NCAA Tournament push.

Conference play will prove huge for West Virginia, which already boasts a road win against Kansas, in proving themselves as a team worthy of a March Madness big. The Big 12 provides them no shortage of opportunities to do so, even after a loss to fellow riser Arizona.

Stock Down

Arkansas (43)

Early ups and downs for John Calipari reflect Kentucky over the past few seasons, and now see Arkansas firmly on the bubble entering the full force of the SEC schedule. The Razorbacks must find consistency in their identity to avoid sliding onto the wrong side of things.

While the SEC is full of Quad 1 chances, Arkansas must capitalize on enough of them to keep their heads above water until things click into place. With no easy games on the schedule, the clock is ticking to find a winning formula against talented opponents.

BYU (50)

BYU started the season hot, working with a new coach and a talented group of newcomers. However, injuries and a dip in form have plagued the Cougars over the past month. Entering the Big 12 schedule, something must change fast.

While the results do not suggest a crisis, time is critical in the Big 12. This concept is nothing new for Kevin Young, who arrived at BYU from an NBA background with the Phoenix Suns.

Cincinnati (35)

A difficult start to Big 12 conference play hurt Cincinnati in the analytic rankings and the conference standings. A quick bounce-back is critical to maintaining their standing for the NCAA Tournament, which looked strong for most of the season thus far.

The Bearcats have plenty more Quad 1 and Quad 2 chances on the horizon, but capitalizing quickly will be important in shaping their perception as March Madness grows closer each week.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Duke (2), Pittsburgh (20)
On the bubble: Clemson (41), Louisville (40), North Carolina (39)
More to do: SMU (48)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (14), Baylor (18), Houston (4), Iowa State (6), Kansas (10), Texas Tech (16), West Virginia (33)
On the bubble: Arizona State (51), BYU (50), Cincinnati (35), UCF (84)
More to do: N/A

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (8), Maryland (23), Michigan (11), Michigan State (19), Oregon (21), Purdue (26), UCLA (25), Wisconsin (24)
On the bubble: Iowa (54), Nebraska (36), Northwestern (53), Ohio State (30), Penn State (47)
More to do: Indiana (58)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (9), Auburn (1), Florida (5), Georgia (29), Kentucky (15), Mississippi State (12), Oklahoma (44), Ole Miss (28), Tennessee (3), Texas A&M (17)
On the bubble: Arkansas (43), Missouri (37), Texas (42), Vanderbilt (38)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Marquette (13), UConn (22)
On the bubble: St. John’s (31)
More to do: Creighton (60), Georgetown (71), Villanova (49)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (7), Memphis (32), Utah State (27)
On the bubble: Dayton(55), SDSU (34), St. Bonaventure (52), St. Mary’s (45), UC San Diego (46), Washington State (65)
More to do: Drake (77), UC Irvine (57), San Francisco (61), VCU (59)