2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch shifts after upsets change outlook

The NCAA Tournament bubble continues to take shape after a big week full of upsets across college basketball shifted the landscape. With the Selection Committee watching each result unfold, it is never too early to take stock of where teams stand.

Every team’s position at this point is extremely fluid, with some teams safely in the field just one bad week away from a bubble conversation. Likewise, many bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2025 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

Creighton (40)

After dipping low in all the analytic rankings toward the end of non-conference play, Creighton was one of the surprise teams on the outside looking in on the bubble. However, picking up some big wins in the Big East has changed the outlook.

The Blue Jays now watch their numbers start to rise, with more opportunities to build a resume ahead against top opponents in the conference.

St. Mary’s (28)

Everything is breaking the way of St. Mary’s in the WCC, and in the bubble conversation so far. As teams take losses across the country, the Gaels ride a six-game win streak which has them at the top of conference standings after a tough week for rival Gonzaga.

Piling up more conference wins should put St. Mary’s firmly in the NCAA Tournament conversation and a couple big wins against the top conference foes could even enter them into the mix for a high seed.

Wake Forest (74)

After starting January off the bubble watch radar, Wake Forest has slowly climbed into the mix, announcing their arrival in the mix with an upset win over North Carolina. While the ACC is not at full power, a six-game win streak is worthy of a few turned heads.

The path into the NCAA Tournament for Wake Forest includes a commitment to improvement computer numbers. Of course, that goal is easier said than done. But mowing down the rest of the conference will certainly serve as a starting point.

Stock Down

Arkansas (57)

Despite being listed on the Stock Down side of things in the first edition of bubble watch, Arkansas manages to remain on the list here. Still winless in SEC play, things have only gotten worse for the Razorbacks as injuries make the task ahead close to impossible.

Facing the gauntlet of SEC play for the rest of the season, John Calipari’s debut is not going to plan. A slim path just got more difficult to navigate as other contenders for this category just got off their skids with marquee wins.

Iowa (62)

After showing some signs of life early in January, things have started to tilt the wrong way again for Iowa. The three-loss streak they now find themselves hurts a bit more than most, with two coming against Big Ten opponents far off the bubble in Minnesota and USC.

With multiple matchups against fellow bubble teams left in the month of January, the Hawkeyes have a major test on the horizon which could prove whether they can land on the right side of the bubble in March.

Nebraska (51)

After surging into the NCAA Tournament conversation with a strong start to Big Ten conference play, Nebraska has dropped four straight losses which feature three fellow bubble team looking to build the resume.

The Cornhuskers have a change to regain footing quickly with two upcoming ranked opponents before the end of January, but the clock is ticking for a group determined to make noise in the postseason.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Duke (2), Louisville (22)
On the bubble: Clemson (31), North Carolina (38), Pittsburgh (32), SMU (44)
More to do: Florida State (66), Wake Forest (74)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (15), Baylor (29), Houston (3), Iowa State (6), Kansas (9), Texas Tech (10), West Virginia (36)
On the bubble: Arizona State (56), BYU (43), Cincinnati (41), UCF (76)
More to do: N/A

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (8), Maryland (24), Michigan (12), Michigan State (16), Oregon (23), Purdue (13), Wisconsin (21)
On the bubble: Indiana (63), Ohio State (30), UCLA (35)
More to do: Iowa (62), Nebraska (51), Northwestern (52), Penn State (48)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (7), Auburn (1), Florida (5), Georgia (27), Kentucky (11), Mississippi State (20), Missouri (26), Ole Miss (14), Tennessee (4), Texas A&M (18)
On the bubble: Arkansas (57), Oklahoma (49), Texas (33), Vanderbilt (37)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Marquette (17), St. John’s (25), UConn (34)
On the bubble: Creighton (40)
More to do: Georgetown (79), Villanova (58), Xavier (54)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (19), Memphis (42), St. Mary’s (28)
On the bubble: SDSU (46), UC Irvine (45), Utah State (39)
More to do: Boise State (50), New Mexico (55), North Texas (53), Oregon State (59), VCU (47)