2024 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Tennessee jumps to 1-seed, kicks off March Madness

The first weekend of March brought big results which are sure to shift the way bracketology looks with just weeks left until Selection Sunday. The 1-seed line gets a new member as the overall resumes of Arizona and Tennessee draw near to each other.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

Multiple Top 25 matchups shifted the top of bracketology, while the bubble continued to shift and clarify which teams have a chance to make a postseason appearance.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament:

Bracketology

All records and projections reflect game results through Mar. 2.
Projected 1-line: Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee
Last four byes: Colorado State, FAU, Northwestern, Villanova
Last four in: New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia
First four out: St. John’s, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Utah
(View more teams on the bubble in the latest On3 Conference Breakdown)

First Four (Dayton)

16 Little Rock (OVC) vs. 16 Merrimack (NEC)
16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 Grambling State (SWAC)
11 Nevada vs. 11 Colorado
11 New Mexico vs. 11 Virginia

Midwest (Detroit)

Indianapolis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 Norfolk State/Grambling State
8 Boise State vs. 9 Oklahoma
Pittsburgh
5 BYU vs. 12 McNeese State (Southland)
4 Auburn vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Salt Lake City
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 New Mexico/Virginia
3 Creighton vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)
Omaha
7 Washington State vs. 10 Northwestern
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Sam Houston (CUSA)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue is still the top team in college basketball for another week. The Boilermakers have continued to prove why they are the No. 1 overall seed by marching through the Big Ten schedule. All that is left for them to do is put together a strong showing in the conference tournament.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State moves up to the 2-seed line following a weekend win and another loss by Kansas. The second-ranked Big 12 team has earned respect by continuing the good analytic numbers through a tough portion of the schedule.

West (Los Angeles)

Charlotte
1 Tennessee (SEC) vs. 16 Little Rock/Merrimack
8 TCU vs. 9 Nebraska
Spokane
5 South Carolina vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 SDSU vs. 13 UC-Irvine (Big West)
Omaha
6 Dayton vs. 11 Villanova
3 Baylor vs. 14 High Point (Big South)
Salt Lake City
7 Wisconsin vs. 10 Indiana State (MVC)
2 Arizona vs. 15 Eastern Washington (Big Sky)

1-seed Tennessee

Tennessee makes the jump to the 1-seed line in this updated bracketology and surpasses Arizona with the overall resume. The past week brought a big boost with two wins over top-four seeds Auburn and Alabama.

2-seed Arizona

Arizona falls back onto the 2-line in this updated bracketology. The Wildcats have returned to the top of the Pac-12 but a big road win by Tennessee changed the overall resume just enough to bypass them for now.

East (Boston)

Brooklyn
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Texas Tech
Spokane
5 Kentucky vs. 12 South Florida (AAC)
4 Illinois vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Memphis
6 Florida vs. 11 Nevada/Colorado
3 Kansas vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
Charlotte
7 Gonzaga vs. 10 Colorado State
2 North Carolina (ACC) vs. 15 Colgate (Patriot)

1-seed UConn

UConn remains No. 2 on the overall seed line ahead of Houston as they wait to play on Sunday afternoon. The Huskies have an edge over the rest of the field besides Purdue and can cement their place with another win.

2-seed North Carolina

North Carolina remains the No. 5 overall seed and the top 2-seed waiting on a chance to climb up the board thanks to a string of wins in the ACC since the NCAA Tournament selection committee gave a glimpse at their seed list.

South (Dallas)

Memphis
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Eastern Kentucky (ASUN)
8 Michigan State vs. 9 Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
5 Clemson vs. 12 Richmond (A-10)
4 Alabama vs. 13 Appalachian State (SBC)
Brooklyn
6 Utah State vs. 11 Princeton (Ivy)
3 Duke vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
Indianapolis
7 Texas vs. 10 FAU
2 Marquette vs. 15 South Dakota State (Summit)

1-seed Houston

Houston holds steady on the 1-line as the No. 3 overall seed behind Purdue and UConn once again. The Cougars will have plenty more resume building opportunities in the final weeks thanks to the strong computer numbers of the Big 12.

2-seed Marquette

Marquette remains on the 2-line thanks to a pair of convincing wins over bubble teams from the Big East over the past week. The Golden Eagles remain in contention for a top seed thanks to big games left on the schedule.