2024 Pressure Check Rankings: Dave Aranda, Deion Sanders headline Big 12 head coaches under the most pressure

The calendar just flipped to July, which means the college football season is that much closer and the heat on teams and coaches is about to get cranked up. 

Last year, I released my pressure ratings for every coach in the Power 5, and we’re running back the series this summer. 

One of the most popular slogans among football coaches is “pressure is a privilege,” and while all these guys are paid handsomely, they all face varying degrees of demand depending on their lot in the sport. 

Some coaches, like Kirby Smart, Steve Sarkisian and Ryan Day, are under pressure to win championships, while others, like Billy Napier or Dave Aranda, are under pressure to simply show program improvement or else risk being fired come season’s end. 

Notably, this is not a hot seat list. It’s a pressure gauge — Low, Medium, High and Extreme. 

The series opened with a look at the 16 coaches from the SEC, and then a breakdown of the leaders of the Big Ten. Today, it’s a look at the coaches from the Big 12. 

Here’s a 2024 Pressure Check Rating for Big 12 coaches: 

Brent Brennan, Arizona — Medium

Brennan is among the rare first-year head coaches who need to show results immediately — and it mostly has to do with the situation he inherited from Jedd Fisch. The Wildcats were a 10-win team in 2023, and while a slew of players transferred to Washington, star quarterback Noah Fifita, wideout Tetairoa McMillan and corner Tacario Davis all opted to remain in Tuscan to try and win a championship in a new conference. 

Brennan did well turning around a bad San Jose State program, but he’s still never won more than seven games in a single season — and with Fifita & Co., back this fall that would be seen as a disappointment for the Wildcats in 2024.

Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State — Medium

The early returns of the Kenny Dillingham era at ASU haven’t been as advertised. The Sun Devils have lacked juice on the recruiting trail and there’s been staff turnover after just one rough 3-9 season. Meanwhile, the roster roulette has continued, too. 

Still, Dillingham is just 33 and has a long leash to get it right at his alma mater. He took over a dump and it’s going to take a bulldozer to clean up all the leftover messiness from the Herm Edwards era. Recruiting has show signs of improving (ASU is flirting with a Top 25 class in 2025). It’s unclear if the same can be said about the team’s on-field product this fall, though.

Dave Aranda, Baylor — Extreme

Outside of maybe Sam Pittman or Billy Napier, no coach in the country faces more pressure than Dave Aranda in 2024. Other than an aberrational 12-2 season in 2021, the former Wisconsin and LSU defensive coordinator is just 11-23 with the Bears.

Aranda is fortunate just to see a Year 5 in Waco, and he used the lifeline to shake up his coaching staff (he’s taking over defensive play-calling, swiping Jake Spavital away from Cal) and bring in a host of transfers including Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn. After a 3-9 season that included a home loss to Texas State, Aranda likely needs to take Baylor bowling if he hopes to retain his job again next season. 

Kalani Sitake, BYU — High

BYU’s move to a power conference came with the expected growing pains, as the Cougars went 5-7 and suffered multiple blowout losses. Not too long ago, Sitake once sat on a bubbling hot seat at his alma mater, and after losing five straight games to end last season, he needs a strong bounce-back year this fall. 

Sitake is entering his ninth season at BYU and he’s taken the program to six bowl games. The Cougars are recruiting better than many anticipated (7th-best class in the conference in 2024), but they’re projected to win just four games in 2024 so more turbulent times could be ahead.

Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati — High

Following in Luke Fickell’s footsteps was never going to be easy for Scott Satterfield, but a 3-9 showing in Year 1 was certainly not what a program use to competing for conference championships was expecting. Satterfield now has just two winning seasons in six years as a power conference head coach. 

The Bearcats do project to be more competitive in his second season, though, as he brought in 45 newcomers (portal + high school recruiting) to reshape the roster. By Big 12 standards, Cincy’s schedule is quite favorable, so if Satterfield doesn’t have the program in contention for a bowl game, then his relocation tour may not last all that long. 

Deion Sanders, Colorado — High

Coach Prime has spent the offseason insisting he plans on being at Colorado long-term, but that future could be determined by what happens on (and off) the field this fall. The Buffs’ roster remake 2.0 should deliver better results, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty with so many moving parts. 

Was all the staff shuffling for better or worse? Will the OL additions allow quarterback Shedeur Sanders to flourish? Can the defense improve from at least terrible to simply bad? Sanders (and many of his media allies) have suggested that Colorado is a real Big 12 title contender, but simply making a bowl game should be viewed as a more realistic goal.

Willie Fritz, Houston — Low 

The Cougars are coming off a 4-8 season with all sorts of roster turnover, but the program did at least upgrade at head coach. Out goes Dana Holgerson and in steps Willie Fritz, who finally gets his shot as a power conference head coach. 

Houston has visions of competing for conference titles — but not in 2024. Fritz faces a challenging rebuild, while he brought in 26 transfers, changing the identity of the program is going to take time. 

Matt Campbell, Iowa State — Low

Barring something unforeseen, Matt Campbell is going to coach at Iowa State for as long as he wants. He rebounded nicely from a disastrous 4-8 season by navigating a gambling scandal that cost the Cyclones their starting quarterback and still going 7-6 with a freshman under center. 

Rocco Becht is back and Iowa State ranks No. 1 nationally in returning production, so Iowa State could be primed for more success this fall. Campbell has proven previously he can win with veteran squads, so the Cyclones should be a surefire bowl team in 2024.

Lance Leipold, Kansas — Low

Lance Leipold has it made right now at Kansas — a sentence no one could have taken seriously just two years ago. But the former Buffalo head coach has taken a moribund program and turned the Jayhawks into a legitimate Big 12 contender. He rebuffed overtures from other schools this offseason and was rewarded with a phat contract extension. 

He returns a team that features star QB-RB tandem Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal and has aims at its first nine-win regular season in 16 years this fall.

Chris Klieman, Kansas State — Medium 

There’s little question about Chris Klieman’s job security in Manhattan, but the Wildcats’ head coach is under some pressure to take hold of the power vacuum atop the Big 12 now that Texas and Oklahoma have bolted for the SEC. 

Klieman opted to move on from veteran quarterback Will Howard in favor of promising sophomore Avery Johnson, and Kansas State must replace four starters off a strong OL, too. Still, the team is among the favorites to win the league this fall, and anything short of a 9-10 win season would be considered a disappointment.

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State — Medium

Once again, just when it seems like the Mike Gundy era is trending in the wrong direction, the Pokes’ former standout quarterback delivers a comeback season. After starting the year 2-2, Oklahoma State went a surprising 10-4 in 2023, losing to Texas in the league title game. The Cowboys return one of the oldest teams in the country, including 20 of 22 starters. 

Gundy successfully changed the vibes in Stillwater (again), but can he win his first Big 12 title in 13 years with OU and Texas no longer in his way?

Sonny Dykes, TCU — Medium

TCU stumbled to 5-7 last season, as Dykes squandered much of the goodwill he established after taking the Horned Frogs to the national title game in 2022. He fired defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie — even though the returns weren’t all that different than the previous season. TCU’s recruiting regressed as well, so Dykes went portal-heavy to shore up the roster. 

Dykes doesn’t need to win the Big 12 this fall, but it would behoove the 2022 National Coach of the Year to at least finish in the top half of the league standings to curb any one-hit wonder discussions.

Joey McGuire, Texas Tech— Low

The Red Raiders had Big 12 title ambitions in 2023, so a 7-6 finish was a bit of a letdown after a promising 8-5 season in Year 1. But the program’s upward trajectory remains promising with McGuire’s ability to accumulate talent at a place where it is historically difficult to do so. 

He signed a Top 25 class after his first season and just inked the best class in the Big 12 in 2024. He’s also landed impact players from the transfer portal. Perhaps the predictions for Texas Tech to be a darkhorse conference championship contender might’ve been just a year too early?

Gus Malzahn, UCF — Medium 

Gus Malzahn suffered his first losing season as a head coach in 2023, as UCF’s move to a power league netted the expected struggles. The team’s transition should be smoother in Year 2, though, as Malzahn has significantly improved the roster’s talent and depth. 

The Knights brought in quarterback KJ Jefferson, All-MAC tailback Peny Boone and a host of projected defensive starters. Their schedule sets up nicely for a surge up league standings, too. If Malzahn can win a couple of 50/50 games, this is a team that could flirt with nine wins this fall. 

Kyle Whittingham, Utah — Medium

The recent news to make defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley Utah’s official head coach changes the pressure meter for Whittingham in 2024. Considering his past accomplishments, the 64-year-old head coach would be under little pressure in 2024, but what if this is maybe his last or second-to-last season as a head coach? 

The Utes have the team to win the Big 12 in their first year in the league — giving Whittingham a chance to win a conference title in three separate leagues. Could this be a swan song season for the future Hall of Fame head coach?

Neal Brown, West Virginia — Medium

Brown staved off all hot seat talk last fall by going 9-4 with a win over North Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. It was only his second winning season at West Virginia, but it netted him a reworked contract and a short extension. 

Now he must avoid a regression year. The Mountaineers have a tough schedule this fall (11 power conference games) but they do return one of the better quarterbacks in the league (Garrett Greene) and brought in close to a dozen transfers to fill some voids defensively. 

2024 Pressure Rankings: Big 12 Coaches

1. Dave Aranda
2. Deion Sanders
3. Kalani Sitake 
4. Scott Satterfield
5. Sonny Dykes
6. Neal Brown
7. Brent Brennan
8. Gus Malzahn
9. Kenny Dillingham
10. Mike Gundy
11. Chris Klieman
12. Kyle Whittingham
13. Joey McGuire
14. Matt Campbell
15. Willie Fritz
16. Lance Leipold