2024 Pressure Check Rankings: Mario Cristobal and Dabo Swinney headline ACC head coaches are under the most pressure

The calendar just flipped to July, which means the college football season is that much closer and the heat on teams and coaches is about to get cranked up. 

Last year, I released my pressure ratings for every coach in the Power 5, and we’re running back the series this summer. 

One of the most popular slogans among football coaches is “pressure is a privilege,” and while all these guys are paid handsomely, they all face varying degrees of demand depending on their lot in the sport. 

Some coaches, like Kirby Smart, Steve Sarkisian and Ryan Day, are under pressure to win championships, while others, like Billy Napier or Dave Aranda, are under pressure to simply show program improvement or else risk being fired come season’s end. 

Notably, this is not a hot seat list. It’s a pressure gauge — Low, Medium, High and Extreme. 

The series opened with a look at the 16 coaches from the SEC, and then a breakdown of the leaders of the Big Ten and the Big 12. 

We conclude the series with a look at the 17 head coaches from the ACC.

Here’s a 2024 Pressure Check Rating for ACC coaches:

Bill O’Brien, Boston College — Low

O’Brien took over the Eagles’ program a month before spring practice, and while he was able to keep most of the roster intact and add impact transfers like Kansas State tailback Treshaun Ward, Vandy wideout Jayden McGowan and Texas Tech receiver Jerand Bradley, he’s under little pressure to win immediately in 2024. 

Jeff Hafley walked away from a 7-6 team because BC’s schedule is much stiffer this fall, so the main hope for O’Brien is to develop Thomas Castellanos into a more complete and consistent quarterback and improve a recruiting apparatus that’s been lacking in recent years.

Justin Wilcox, Cal — Medium

It took several years for Justin Wilcox’s program to find its footing after the 2020 COVID season, but after making a bowl game last fall, the expectation is to get back to the postseason again in 2024. The Bears will have the best tailback in the ACC in Jaydn Ott and they quietly brought in a sneaky-good transfer portal class. 

Wilcox is someone who’s been on and off various hot-seat lists in recent years, and despite Cal moving to a new league this fall, anything short of a bowl appearance would ramp up the pressure again on the veteran head coach in 2025.

Dabo Swinney, Clemson — High

Dabo Swinney‘s continued refusal to use the transfer portal has only heightened the pressure to prove his antiquated roster management strategy can still deliver championship results in 2024. 

The Tigers haven’t made the College Football Playoff in four seasons, and are coming off a season where they went .500 in ACC play. Still, they have an overall strong roster, so anything short of a league title will be seen as a disappointment in a watered-down ACC.

Manny Diaz, Duke — Medium

Three years ago, Mike Elko inherited a program that was 1-17 in ACC play, and promptly went 17-9 and parlayed his success into the Texas A&M head coaching job. So while Manny Diaz is walking into a much more stable situation, it’s on the former Penn State DC to make the most of his second opportunity as a head coach and maintain Duke’s resurgence within the conference. 

Diaz has better alignment than he did at Miami, but he was just 21-15 with the Hurricanes and now has a worse roster and a very difficult 2024 schedule. Unlike most first-year head coaches, Diaz needs to prove quickly he’s the right man for the job.

Mike Norvell, Florida State — Medium

Mike Norvell has seen his Q-rating skyrocket in the last 12 months, becoming the king of the transfer portal and returning the Seminoles back into national title contenders. 

Of course, FSU didn’t get to actually play for the championship in 2023 after going 13-0, but the ‘Noles are the favorites to win the ACC this fall. Norvell is a Top 10 coach now and has enough clout at FSU where he can rebuff any advances from Alabama.

Brent Key, Georgia Tech — Medium

Key went 7-6 in his first full season as the head coach of his alma mater, taking the Yellow Jackets from the laughing stock of the ACC into a competitive team again. 

The pressure Key faces now is not wasting the program’s current upward trajectory. The Bees have a brutal schedule this fall, but they bring back one of the more intriguing quarterbacks in the ACC in Haynes King. If the defense improves this should be a bowl team again this fall. Key also has the program flirting with a Top 25 recruiting class — something unheard of at Georgia Tech. 

Jeff Brohm, Louisville — Medium

Brohm didn’t waste a cake schedule in 2023, reaching the ACC Championship in his first season back at his alma mater.  He patched the roster with a bunch of portal pieces last season, and he doubled down on that approach for this fall — bringing in a strong crop including quarterback Tyler Shough and receivers Caullin Lacy and Ja’Corey Brooks. 

The schedule is much more difficult, so another 10-win season might not be in the cards, but Brohm has upgraded the roster where the program should be competitive in most games this year.

Mario Cristobal, Miami — Extreme

No head coach in the ACC faces more pressure than Mario Cristobal in 2024. The Canes made some significant investments in the transfer portal (quarterback Cam Ward, tailback Damien Martinez, Michigan State defensive tackle Simeon Barrow, Marshall corner D’Yoni Hill and Houston receiver Sam Brown, among others) and have hopes of winning the ACC for the first time in school history. 

Cristobal is a proven ace at accumulating talent, but he needs to start stacking wins (just 12-13 in two seasons). He’s already facing some early ‘If not now, when?’ questions, so anything short of a 9-10 win season would seriously crank up the heat to some truly uncomfortable levels for a coach armed with a carte blanche 10-year contract.

Mack Brown, North Carolina — High

For the second straight year, Mack Brown stands as one of the more unique head coaches in the sport — he has a national title on his resume but his UNC teams have underachieved the last several seasons. The Tar Heels have squandered the talents of NFL quarterbacks Sam Howell and Drake Maye due to continued defensive shortcomings, leading Brown to move on from Gene Chizik for former Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins. 

Brown will turn 73 this summer, and while he won’t be fired from a program he’s spent 16 seasons at, he could be pushed into retirement if a make-or-break year goes poorly.

Dave Doeren, NC State — Medium

Doeren is the Steady Eddie of the ACC — good for a 9 or 8-win season. But typically nothing more or nothing less. Perhaps that changes in 2024, though? A year after becoming the Wolfpack’s all-time winningest head coach, Doeren is eying a potential run to the ACC Championship this fall. 

He aimed to fix a broken offense with a slew of portal additions (quarterback Grayson McCall, tailbacks Jordan Waters and Hollywood Smothers and receivers Noah Rogers and Wesley Grimes) and the team returns its top defensive playmakers in All-ACC corner Aydan White and pass rusher Davin Vann. This fall could mark Doeren’s best chance at his first 10-win season. 

Pat Narduzzi, Pitt — High

Narduzzi led the Panthers to the ACC title two years ago, but the team fell off a cliff last season, going 3-9 and just 2-6 in ACC play. The openly outspoken head coach questioned the talent of his team after a 58-7 splattering against Notre Dame, leading to a swift apology to a broken locker room. 

The program then saw all sorts of attrition via the transfer portal, with edge rusher Dayon Hayes, now at Colorado, openly saying he left Pitt because he didn’t believe the team could win in 2024. Narduzzi isn’t on the hot seat — yet — but another poor showing this fall could really up the ante on 2025, particularly with an administration that didn’t hire him or hand him an extension in the first place. 

Rhett Lashlee, SMU — Low

Lashlee is a young, up-and-coming head coach who just went 11-3 with an AAC Championship. The Mustangs play a fun, frenetic brand of football — and were among the most balanced teams in the country last season (Top 10 in scoring offense, 38.7, and scoring defense, 17.8). 

The move to the ACC won’t be easy, but Lashlee has SMU setup for success. The Mustangs, which was a Top 25 team by the end of last season, have the capability to competitively recruit at a power conference level and they’re an attractive transfer portal destination for a bunch of former blue-chip Texas recruits looking to play closer to home. 

Troy Taylor, Stanford — Low

Taylor took over a dire situation — and then the famed scholastic school was forced to make the unideal move to the ACC after the dissolution of the Pac-12. Taylor has the Cardinal recruiting at a near Top 25 clip — and landing 4-star freshman quarterback signee Elijah Brown at least gives the program something to be optimistic about in the future. 

The “now” looks tough, though. Coming off a 3-9 season, Stanford saw many of its best players hit the portal, and the school’s admission process makes it nearly impossible for Taylor to plug such holes with transfers. 

Fran Brown, Syracuse — Medium

This is a classic case of taking advantage of your circumstances. Brown was an out-of-left-field hire by Syracuse, but he’s quickly proven he can get the job done off the field — instantly infusing Syracuse’s program with energy and confidence by hiring an intriguing staff and landing some big-time prospects out of the portal and recruiting trail. 

Can Brown, who has never been a coordinator or head coach at any level, get it done on Saturdays now? That’s the question.

The Orange have one of the easiest schedules among all power conference teams (cupcake non-conference slate + no Clemson, Florida State, Miami), so like Jeff Brohm in 2023, there’s some pressure on Brown to win right away in Year 1.

Tony Elliott, Virginia — High

Elliott enters a pivotal Year 3, as the Hoos’ program continues to spin its wheels. Virginia has won just six games the last two seasons, and while Elliott was crucial in uniting the school after the tragic on-campus shooting, he’s under real heat to start delivering better results on the field. 

Time is still on Elliott’s side, but progress is needed in 2024, especially for an offense that showed some signs of life last fall.

Brent Pry, Virginia Tech — Medium

The Hokies are among the offseason darlings, as Pry is looking to capitalize on his team’s strong finish in 2023. Led by quarterback Kyron Drones and star pass rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland, they return the 5th-most production in the nation. 

While Va. Tech went 3-8 in Pry’s first season in Blacksburg, he proved his process had merit by landing some key transfers and inking the program’s best recruiting class in years. The Hokies then won seven games and were able to selectively add several impact players to this season’s roster. Va. Tech is a real sleeper contender for the ACC this fall, and a potential 10-win season (something that hasn’t happened since 2016) is possible.

Dave Clawson, Wake Forest — Low

Dave Clawson is entering his 11th season at Wake Forest, and while last year’s 4-8 backslide was frustrating, the veteran head coach should be given ample time to turn around a program notoriously hard to win at.  

Prior to last year’s bottoming out (where the Demon Deacons had all sorts of offensive issues without quarterback Sam Hartman), Clawson had taken Wake Forest bowling in seven straight seasons. No one questions Clawson’s coaching acumen, but in the new era of college football, roster management has become a real challenge for Wake Forest, which is the smallest private school among the entire power conferences. 

Still, he’s the program’s best head coach in close to 75 years.

2024 Pressure Rankings: ACC head coaches

1. Mario Cristobal
2. Dabo Swinney 
3. Pat Narduzzi
4. Mack Brown
5. Tony Elliott
6. Justin Wilcox
7. Dave Doeren
8. Brent Pry
9. Jeff Brohm
10. Fran Brown
11. Manny Diaz
12. Brent Key
13. Mike Norvell
14. Rhett Lashlee
15. Dave Clawson
16. Bill O’Brien
17. Troy Taylor