Sorting through the top 2024 quarterback prospects

On3 released its updated football prospect rankings for the 2024 cycle on Monday. Much of this rankings release is driven by in-person evaluations at national and regional events over the course of the off-season. We were able to see 20 of the nation’s top quarterback prospects in person at the Elite 11 Finals in June. As a result, we came away with some movement within the quarterback rankings.

Seeing the group at the Elite 11 allowed for a direct side-by-side comparison of many of the cycle’s top passers. We were able to get a sense for some of the physical tools, passing ability and level of development of the participants. With that said, the Elite 11 is a highly structured setting, absent of a pass rush or a true open environment akin to a live, 11-on-11 football game. Understanding this reality helps us to properly contextualize that in-person evaluation which can supplement what we see from these quarterbacks on Friday nights.

These quarterback prospects are at different points in their development with varying degrees of experience and room for continued growth. After seeing much of the group in person and going back to study the junior seasons with that added context, we’ve worked to set the table heading into the fall. Ultimately the skills and performance these quarterbacks show as seniors will go a long way in determining where they finish in the final rankings. Our goal is to project these quarterbacks as long-term prospects as manifested by the NFL Draft. How they perform as seniors is typically one of the strongest indicators we have for predicting future success.

With that said, lets look at some of the storylines within this quarterback group as we enter the fall.

Sayin, Raiola enter the fall as 5-star signal callers

There are currently two five-star quarterbacks in the On300 with Alabama commit Julian Sayin joining
Georgia pledge Dylan Raiola on the heels of a very strong showing at the Elite 11 Finals and OT7 Finals in June. Sayin moves into the No. 1 quarterback spot and checks in at No. 7 overall after taking On3 MVP honors at both events. The Carlsbad (Calif.) High product shows up to seemingly every event and consistently performs at a high level. He has a quick release and is highly accurate.

Sayin throws with advanced timing and feel, doing a fantastic job of layering his throws and putting his receivers in position to make plays. His performance at the OT7 Finals was among the best we’ve seen in a 7-on-7 setting from a quarterback prospect in a few years. Sayin is a pass-first quarterback at around 6-foot-1.5, 195 pounds. He thrives off of efficiency and decision on Friday nights. He could take his game to the next level by improving his overall play, but particularly showing more individual playmaking on second-reaction and off-script plays.

Raiola first debuted as the No. 1 overall prospect and top quarterback — in any ranking — in the initial 2024 On300 back in the spring of 2022. He flashed advanced arm strength and pure passing ability along with budding playmaking skills as a sophomore at Burleson High in Texas. Raiola transferred to Chandler High in Arizona for his junior season and simply did not have a season typical of a No. 1 overall prospect.

After watching all of their games, it was clear he just was not overly comfortable as the offense tended to sputter in the biggest games. Raiola is now on his fourth high school, transferring to Georgia powerhouse Buford High after spending a few months at Pinnacle High in Arizona. The 6-foot-2.5, 220-pounder showed some encouraging signs at the Elite 11 Finals, pushing Sayin for the On3 MVP. He was comfortable in that setting and showed easy downfield arm strength. As a senior, we’re looking for Raiola to return to the form he showed as a sophomore and show more mobility than he did last fall.

Top five-star contenders

Three more quarterbacks join Sayin and Raiola as top 50 prospects in the On300: Florida State commit Luke Kromenhoek (No. 27), Ohio State commit Air Noland (No. 43) and Florida commit DJ Lagway (No. 46). This group should be considered the primary contenders to push for five-star status heading into the season.

Kromenhoek continues to be a stock up prospect for On3 coming out of the Elite 11 Finals. At 6-foot-3.5, 190 pounds, he touts a big arm and well above average movement skills. Kromenhoek easily drives the ball downfield with palpable velocity. We came away from the Elite 11 Finals feeling he could have the highest upside among the group. Kromenhoek was a first year starter in 2022 after spending time behind former four-star and Auburn signee Holden Geriner as an underclassman. While he had a nice year as a junior, it’s safe to expect Kromenhoek to make a jump as a senior given his relative lack of in-game experience in comparison to the rest of the group. The translatable physical tools are clearly there. He could make a serious push with further progression as a player on Friday nights.

Noland is the most established high school player of this group, and it may not be close. While he’s not as physically imposing as others, the southpaw absolutely carved up defenses as a junior, passing for 4,095 yards and 55 touchdowns against just four picks. Even coming close to replicating that play would be a feather in his cap while adding more true playmaking elements to his game.

Lagway has one of the stronger combinations of arm talent and athleticism of the group. At 6-foot-2.5, 230-pounds, he’s a sturdy, big-armed passer who can rip off chunk runs. To this point the Florida pledge has shown some tantalizing flashes both on Friday nights and in the camp settings. He’s also shown some inconsistencies with his accuracy and overall performance in both settings. A strong senior season from start to finish would put Lagway in the mix.

Non-Elite 11 darkhorses

Merely being invited to the Elite 11 Finals is not a prerequisite for becoming a top college quarterback and early round draft pick. The majority of current NFL starting quarterbacks were not Elite 11 finalists. Not all quarterbacks attend the regionals that are the basis for invites to the finals.

Two non-Elite 11 Finalists who we’re high on at On3 are Texas A&M commit Miles O’Neill (No. 58) and Duke pledge Tyler Cherry (No. 135). Both have shown the prototypical physical tools and ability to be among the best at the position in the 2024 cycle.

O’Neill was a relative late-riser. He hails from Marblehead, Massachusetts outside of Boston. At 6-foot-4.5, 220 pounds, he touts arguably the strongest arm in the cycle based off what we’ve seen. The Aggie pledge has some of the biggest hands among 2024 quarterbacks and the ball jumps out both on film and in workout footage. He has the ability to make high level throws without strain. We also liked his accuracy and decision-making in going through games from his junior season. O’Neill is also a solid athlete and has a basketball background. He transferred to The Hun School in Princeton, N.J. for his senior season and will see an uptick in competition.

Similar to Luke Kromenhoek, Tyler Cherry was a first-year starter as a junior at a power program: Center Grove in Indiana. He also took over for a former four-star — former Tennessee and current Indiana quarterback, Tayven Jackson. Cherry is a verified 6-foot-4, 220 pounds with a 10-inch hand. He’s a quick-armed passer who makes high-level throws while working from under center on Friday nights. His willingness to stand in the pocket and deliver strikes over the middle of the field stands out. We also like his functional movement skills. We’d like to see Cherry take on more responsibility within his offense as a senior as he was at the helm of a run-heavy offense.

Two other potential risers who were not at the Elite 11 Finals to keep an eye on are Washington commit Dermaricus Davis (No. 282) and Missouri commit Aidan Glover. Both have shown translatable physical tools and encouraging skill sets to this point.

Sifting through the four-star On300 quarterbacks

Georgia commit Ryan Puglisi sits tight at No. 119. The Massachusetts native has a quick arm and was competitive over the course of the week at the Elite 11 Finals. We want to see him continue to progress with overall consistency and decision making this fall.

There’s a glut of quarterbacks in the On300 with ratings of 91 – Penn State commit Ethan Grunkemeyer (No. 176), TCU commit Hauss Hejny (No. 181), Auburn commit Walker White (No. 183), Michigan commit Jadyn Davis (No. 188), Notre Dame commit CJ Carr (No. 193) and Tennessee commit Jake Merklinger (No. 198). Many of these represent some of the higher-profile quarterback commits in the cycle.

Ethan Grunkemeyer flashed some of the best pure mechanics at the Elite 11 Finals. His passing ability is as good as most in the On300. He will need to show more progression as a player on Friday nights, but the arm more than checks out in person.

Hauss Hejny is the best athlete among the group, if not all quarterbacks in the cycle. The TCU pledge is a twitched up runner who pulls away from defensive backs in the open field. He was a first year starter as a junior, leading his team to a state title. Hejny was a pleasant surprise as a passer at the Elite 11 Finals. We feel like he’s one of the safer bets of the group to be a very good college player, but seeing him as a senior will help assess his long-term upside.

Walker White was not at the Elite 11 Finals after not attending a regional. The Auburn pledge is a big passer with good arm strength and athleticism. He has not been overly productive or efficient as a high school player to this point, so we’re looking for growth as a senior.

Jadyn Davis has long been considered a top quarterback in the cycle. At 6-foot-0.5, 190 pounds he’s a polished, developed quarterback who did a nice job distributing the ball to a talented group of skill players on his team at Charlotte (N.C.) Providence Christian. Davis didn’t appear to have overwhelming physical attributes at the Elite 11 Finals, but we’ll be watching his senior season.

CJ Carr is arguably the most polished 2024 quarterback. He excels in defined, set situations. The accuracy and technical ability are evident when everything is clean. We want to see how he progresses as a reactive player on Friday nights as a senior.

Jake Merklinger was not invited to the Elite 11 Finals. The Tennessee pledge is a heady, accurate quarterback with good functional movement skills. He may not be as strong of a pure passer as others in the group based on camp showings. With that said, Merklinger could also stand to help himself with a great senior season.

Kentucky commit Cutter Boley (No. 94) and LSU commit Colin Hurley both reclassified from the 2025 to 2024 cycle. While the jury is very much out on reclassification’s affect on overall development at the position, we’re treating this season as the senior year for both. Boley is a tall, big-armed pocket passer. Hurley is another with plus arm talent who will need to show improved in-game accuracy and mobility in the fall to constitute a move into the On300.