2024 SEC win totals: Analyzing schedule projections from Georgia, Texas to South Carolina and Vanderbilt
We’ve officially hit the dog days of the college football offseason, as recruiting takes center stage over the next month while teams eagerly (or wearily!) await media days and training camp.
The transfer portal has mostly been emptied of impact players and most all 2024 signees are on campus by now, too. Overall, we have as good of a read on these teams that we’ll get until August.
Not too long ago, On3 partner Fan Duel updated its 2024 regular-season win totals.
The SEC has two of the highest over/unders this fall, with both Georgia and Texas sitting at 10.5. The league, which now features 16 teams, has another eight teams with totals set between 7.5-9.5, so a competitive conference projects to be even more difficult tin 2024.
With the latest information post-portal, post-spring, here’s a little Too High? Too Low? Just Right? with the 2024 SEC win totals projections.
Alabama: 9.5 — Just Right
The Crimson Tide must replace the sport’s greatest coach of all-time and a slew of its best defensive players (Caleb Downs, Dallas Turner, Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry, among others) off a Top 20 unit in 2023, which is why, despite the optimism surrounding the Kalen DeBoer regime, they are projected to win fewer than 10 games for the first time since 2007.
Quarterback Jalen Milroe will need to make a seismic leap in consistency if Alabama hopes to win double-digit games in the regular season against a slate that includes Georgia and away games at Wisconsin, LSU, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
Arkansas: 4.5 — Too High
The Razorbacks’ win-total has slightly dropped since Fan Duel first released its odds back in late January, as the bookmakers weren’t overly impressed with the Hogs’ offseason (this despite transfer quarterback Taylen Green looking good in Arkansas’ spring game).
For a coach on the hot seat, the schedule doesn’t do Sam Pittman many favors — and that’s despite missing the likes of Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma in 2024. The Hogs might not be favored in a single SEC game this fall, and they have a road game at Oklahoma State in Week 2. Is it disrespectful to say 3-9 looks more likely than 5-7?
Auburn: 7.5 — Just Right
Hugh Freeze may be the last believer in quarterback Payton Thorne, but the Tigers’ head coach has upgraded all the pieces around the former Michigan State transfer (receiver, offensive line, coaching staff) to give Auburn a better chance at success in Year 2.
The defensive line still has some concerns, but the schedule sets up for Auburn to win eight or nine games. They have a bakery non-conference slate, and their most difficult opponents (Georgia, Alabama, Missouri) are all on the road anyway.
Florida: 4.5 — Too Low
The Gators’ win-total opened at 5.5 and dropped a full game despite a spring where both the coaching staff and roster actually improved. Billy Napier is swimming in it right now, but he doesn’t sound (or look) like a head coach who is in real danger of losing his job.
Florida’s nightmarish schedule has been written about ad nauseam this offseason, but what if it isn’t quite as difficult as so many predict? It’s too early to know if UF is a bowl team in 2024, but the Gators have enough talent to win at least five games.
Georgia: 10.5 — Just Right
At first glance, the Bulldogs’ win-total might look low considering Georgia hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2020. UGA will also be favored in at least 11 games this season (at Texas the lone outlier).
While Kirby Smart returns a loaded roster headlined by quarterback Carson Beck, a host of versatile playmakers and a defensive two-deep better than any team in the country, the schedule features enough land mines where they could get tripped up once or twice during the regular season. Not many programs face a more difficult road slate that includes at Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss (all preseason Top 10 teams) and a non-conference game versus Clemson.
Kentucky: 6.5 — Too Low
Mark Stoops looked to overhaul Kentucky’s offense again this offseason, bringing in UGA transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff, hiring Boise State OC Bush Hamdan and adding a slew of other potential starters (offensive line, tailback back, receiver) from the portal.
Will it be enough to win more than just six regular season games for the third straight season? The Wildcats should have one of the best defensive lines in the SEC, and Kroger Field will feature some of the tastiest cupcakes this autumn (Southern Miss, Ohio, Murray State, Vandy, South Carolina). UK’s floor-ceiling is very narrow, but seven wins looks very reasonable, with a legitimate chance to go 8-4, too.
LSU: 9.5 — Just Right
The Tigers are capable of winning every game on their schedule in 2024 — one that starts with a neutral site game against USC in Las Vegas — but Brian Kelly’s team also has enough uncertainties (Has Blake Baker fixed the defense? What sort of offensive regression will occur with no Jayden Daniels or two 1st Round receivers?) to lose three or four times this coming season, too.
The schedule sets up for LSU to sort out some kinks defensively, but after the first month, the Tigers face four preseason Top 25 teams plus have tricky road trips at Arkansas and Florida.
Mississippi State: 4.5 — Just Right
This is another preseason total that dropped following Fan Duel’s initial release. The Bulldogs’ 2024 roster has seen a major overhaul, as the offensive and defensive lines look totally different from last season. The program has the added challenge of transitioning back to an Air Raid-esque offense under first-time head coach Jeff Lebby. Transfer quarterback Blake Shapen did look sharp during the spring, and Mississippi State brought in several helpful playmakers including UTEP wideout Kelly Akharaiyi, but the Bulldogs might be favored in one SEC game all year.
Just flirting with bowl eligibility should be considered a success for Lebby in Year 1.
Missouri: 9.5 — Just Right
The Tigers are looking to follow up last season’s 11-1 year with an all-in, let’s-make-a-playoff-push in 2024. Quarterback Brady Cook is back and has some of the best weapons in the SEC (Luther Burden III, Theo Wease, Marcus Carroll). The Tigers have been aggressive in the portal, too, landing a host of defensive starters and top offensive line transfer Cayden Green.
Is it enough for Eli Drinkwitz’s team to meet some lofty expectations and win double-digit games in back-to-back seasons for the first time a decade?
Oklahoma: 7.5 — Just Right
The Sooners have the makeup of a potential College Football Playoff spoiler — especially if former 5-star sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold and a totally revamped offensive line meshes quickly in 2024. The problem is Oklahoma got dealt a brutal hand in Year 1 in the SEC — especially when compared to Texas’ schedule.
OU could start out 5-0 before its Red River Rivalry showdown with the Longhorns — or it could be 3-2 with games remaining against Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama and LSU. So while a preseason total under eight looks short, it’s probably just right.
Ole Miss: 9.5 — Too Low
No team with realistic CFP expectations has been more aggressive in the transfer portal than Lane Kiffin and the Rebels. After convincing the likes of Jaxson Dart, Tre Harris and others to return to school, Kiffin essentially flipped the rest of the roster by bringing in at least 24 transfers — basically recruiting a mercenary defense.
And why not? This season is set up for Ole Miss to capitalize on last year’s success with perhaps its most talented roster ever against a schedule that doesn’t include Alabama, Texas or Missouri. The Rebels could lose to Georgia and at LSU and still cruise to 10 wins.
South Carolina: 5.5 — Too High
The Gamecocks had the year from hell in 2023 — and still won five regular season games. Even with a lesser talented roster, Shane Beamer has shown the ‘Cocks can claw their way to some ugly wins, and he’s going to have to do that again this fall. The offensive personnel is better this season, but there are questions with how quarterback LaNorris Sellers will fare in his first fall as the starter.
South Carolina always plays a brutal schedule, and although it misses Georgia and Texas this season, the slate still features six preseason Top 25 teams (including at Alabama, Oklahoma and Clemson). The Gamecocks must win a couple of coin-flip games to reach bowl eligibility.
Tennessee: 9.5 — Just Right
The Vols should have one of the better defenses in the SEC, and Josh Heupel has surrounded electric quarterback Nico Iamaleava with a strong group of receivers and running backs. If Iamaleava can avoid the usual hiccups of a first-year starting quarterback, then Tennessee looks like a CFP contender.
The schedule isn’t overly daunting, but a Week 2 game in Charlotte against NC State is tricky. Ten wins is realistic so long as the Vols take care of business at home and are able to win a game away from Neyland Stadium against either the Wolfpack or Oklahoma Sooners.
Texas: 10.5 — Just Right
The Longhorns are tied with Georgia for the highest preseason win-total in the SEC (and nation) — this despite losing its two-headed tandem at defensive tackle and every notable pass-catcher off last year’s CFP team. Steve Sarkisian has reloaded the receiver room, and Texas should have one of the most formidable pass rushing fronts in the country with the addition of UTSA edge Trey Moore (who led the nation in sacks in 2023).
If not for a monster Week 2 road tilt at Michigan, Texas couldn’t had a total listed at 11.5 and many folks probably wouldn’t have blinked.
Texas A&M: 8.5 — Just Right
It’s been a quiet offseason in College Station, but the hype is starting to bubble around Mike Elko’s program as we draw closer to the 2024 opener. The roster has stabilized. The coaching staff is improved, and the vibes are just better.
If quarterback Conner Weigman can stay healthy and fulfill his former 5-star potential, Texas A&M is a team capable of putting a scare into anyone on its schedule this season. An opener against Notre Dame is tough, but it is at home. Hanging a bigger preseason number might be overdoing it, but why can’t the Aggies go 9-3 in 2024?
Vanderbilt: 2.5 — Too Low
Clark Lea’s program was gutted by portal losses this offseason, but unlike the previous few years, the Commodores pounded the portal to try to fill many of the roster’s holes. Lea showed promise in his first two seasons in Nashville, but the former Vandy fullback is under some pressure to win more games after a 3-9 season in 2023.
The hope is New Mexico State quarterback Diego Pavia and Aggies’ OC Tim Beck will inject an offense with some much-needed juice, and Lea, the former Notre Dame DC, is taking a more hands-on approach to the defense. Vandy might not win a single SEC game this season, but with a non-con slate that has Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State on it, three wins is absolutely the floor.