Week 1 Stock Report: 5-stars shining, Penn State's offensive renaissance, Michigan red flags
Week 1 officially wraps up tonight with Boston College at Florida State, but most of the hay is in the barn on the first major weekend of the 2024 season, so let’s dial up the weekly Stock Report which drops every Monday.
We’re talking 5-stars, Penn State’s offensive renaissance, concerns at Michigan and more.
The 2024 Week 1 Stock Report:
📈STOCK UP — 5-stars (past and present) balling out
Charles Power, Cody Bellaire & Co., should be flashing big ‘ole grins somewhere today, as Week 1 was a showcase for recent recruiting evaluations.
Guys like Travis Hunter, Malachi Starks, Luther Burden and Will Johnson (all of whom had big 2024 debuts) are known commodities at this point, while 2023 5-stars like Francis Mauigoa, Peter Woods and Caleb Downs already delivered strong freshman seasons.
But Saturday provided the first in-depth glimpses of Nico Iamaleava, Jackson Arnold, Arch Manning, Raylen Wilson and James Smith.
Hit. Hit. Hit. Hit. Hit.
Iamaleava and Arnold dazzled, while Manning was really good in relief of Quinn Ewers. Wilson flew around like a wild banshee on Georgia’s defensive, and Smith looks like the next great Alabama defensive linemen.
Then there’s the Class of 2024, which damn.
Talk about loaded.
Dylan Raiola was impressive in his first-career start at Nebraska. Cam Coleman hauled in a 40-yard touchdown on his first-career catch at Auburn. KJ Bolden started at safety for Georgia and led the Bulldogs’ defense in snaps, while Dylan Stewart saved South Carolina’s bacon with a forced fumble late in the fourth quarter. Even Jordan Seaton was decent in his debut as Colorado’s left tackle.
And then there’s Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams, who instantly look like the best playmakers on their respective teams as teenage freshmen. Smith dropped his first catch, only to respond with six grabs for 92 yards and two touchdowns. Williams caught just two balls Saturday — but both went for long scores totaling 139 yards.
This is a special, special crop of playmakers.
📉STOCK DOWN — The ACC’s chances to be a two-bid league
Before the season, there was some thought that the ACC — with Florida State inside in the preseason Top 10 and Clemson, Miami and NC State all ranked as well — would be a two-bid league in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.
Ha!
Thankfully for Jim Phillips, at least Miami realized the games actually counted this weekend, as FSU, Clemson, NC State and Va. Tech all no-showed to start the season.
The Wolfpack survived a legitimate scare from Western Carolina, needing a couple late scores to put away an FCS program at home. Meanwhile, it took one week for the Hokies’ balloonish offseason hype to pop, losing as two-touchdown favorites at Vanderbilt. Brent Pry did not have his team prepared for an 11 a.m. kick in Nashville, and even after the Hokies rallied from a sleep start, their defense couldn’t get a stop late or in overtime.
As for Clemson, Dabo Swinney spent months decrying all the changes around the program, only for the Tigers to fail to score a single touchdown against Georgia in embarrassing 34-3 loss.
The Noles have a chance to makeup for last week’s gak against Georgia Tech, but DJ Uiagalelei looked exactly like DJU has for four years, which was the greatest concern around FSU’s ceiling this fall. It’s super early, but any hopes of the ACC securing an at-large bid seem outlandish after just one week.
STOCK HOLDING — Oregon as a championship contender
Don’t rush to the window to sell your stock on the Ducks’ championship hopes this fall despite an uninspiring performance against FCS Idaho on Saturday when they were 40-point favorites but squeaked out a 24-14 win.
Dan Lanning’s team needed an offsides penalty late in the fourth-quarter to avoid a turnover on downs that would’ve given the Vandals the ball back down just three points. Oregon’s offensive line (down a pair of starters) was bad, allowing three sacks, multiple other QB hits, and generating little push in the run game (3.8 yards per carry). They had false starts and missed assignments, too.
Dillon Gabriel threw for a bunch of yards, but almost every throw was within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
So maybe the Ducks do have real problems and their holes were exposed, or maybe it was a clunky Week 1 opener, and Oregon will look like the Oregon everyone expected next weekend against Boise State.
📈STOCK UP — Penn State’s offensive renaissance
There’s some buyer beware here as Penn State and Drew Allar torched West Virginia in the 2023 season-opener, too, but this looked different. This looked real.
All offseason, I expressed my doubts that Andy Kotelnicki would be able to put his fingerprints on PSU’s offense in Year 1. It had nothing to do with Kotelnicki, and everything to do with how James Franklin handles his coordinators.
Well, after one week I was dead wrong.
Kotelnicki’s “Dairy Queen Blizzard offense” had the Mountaineers in a blender, as all the eye-candy (funky formations, two QBs on the field sometimes, motion, option, Wildcat) created all sorts of mismatches and explosive plays.
Allar was the sharpest he’s ever looked, pushing the ball vertically and moving well (did he lose some wait or add some mobility?) laterally. Nick Singleton, who had a bit of a sophomore slump, is going to takeoff like a rocket in Kotelnicki’s offense, and for the first time in several seasons, the Nittany Lions look like they have a stud receiver again (Harrison Wallace had a big breakout performance). PSU had four plays over 40 yards — half of their entire 2023 season output.
One of the biggest reasons why I don’t believe Saturday’s performance was fool’s gold was Franklin’s obvious confidence in Kotelnicki and the offense in a situation where he previously had been quite conservative. With an apocalyptical storm about to hit Morgantown, Penn State had the ball up 13-6 with .32 seconds remaining in the first half. The Nittany Lions were on their own 27-yard line and called a run to Singleton on first down that went for no gain. Instead of running out the clock, Kotelnicki dialed up a shot-play that went for 55 yards. On the very next throw, Allar found Wallace for an 18-yard touchdown and suddenly Penn State was up two scores entering halftime — with the ball to start the third quarter — and in total control of the game.
This team looks legit.
📉STOCK DOWN — Michigan’s offense
Conversely, the three-time Big Ten champs have some real problems. I’ve defended the Wolverines Top-10 ranking for weeks, and I still believe this defense is so loaded they can cover their eyes and win eight games.
But *this* Michigan offense ain’t beating Texas, Ohio State or Oregon or probably even USC.
It wasn’t surprising that Michigan played two quarterbacks against Fresno State, but Davis Warren beating out Alex Orji looks like an ominous sign for Orji’s future — and the upside of the Maize & Blue attack in 2024.
Warren reportedly had a strong fall camp and has a nice arm, but Michigan’s offense line is way worse than it was a year ago and pass protection is not the unit’s strength. Warren finished just 15 of 25 for 115 yards and a pick, and other than tight end Colston Loveland, the Wolverines are bereft of playmaking talent on the perimeter.
As was the case last season, Orji is a nice change-of-pace runner, but Sherrone Moore clearly doesn’t trust his arm.
The scary thing for Michigan is its usual meat-and-potatoes ground game looked average as hell. Fresno State’s defensive line is solid, but if the Bulldogs can hold Donovan Edwards to 2.5 yards per carry, what’s he going to do against Texas or Ohio Sate? Kalel Mullings (92 yards on 15 carries) was a bright-spot, but Moore better have some answers immediately, or else next week is going to get ugly against the Longhorns — no matter how good Wink Martindale‘s unit is.