2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks for first weekend: Contenders, upsets, and more

Filling out brackets is a time-honored tradition in college basketball. After the selection committee set the 2025 NCAA Tournament field, fans across the country started picking apart the matchups for the early contenders, best upset candidates and more.

While no bracket is ever perfect, maximizing the chances to predict all the results of the first weekend takes more time than anyone has to spend. Meanwhile, the co-worker or family member who picks based on the mascots or colors will likely win anyway.

After watching all 68 teams in the field throughout the season, there is a datapoint for every matchup to pull from in analysis. Here are my best projections for the chaos of the First Four, Round of 64, and Round of 32 as March Madness sweeps the nation.

First Four (Dayton)

16 Alabama State vs. 16 St. Francis PA
16 American vs. 16 Mount St. Mary’s
11 SDSU vs. 11 North Carolina
11 Texas vs. 11 Xavier

The 16-seed picks go to the higher-ranked teams plain and simple. Meanwhile, North Carolina and Texas both enter the bracket with a second life. Both of those teams just get the edge off late-season improvements which also landed them on the right side of the bubble.

Round of 64

South (Atlanta)

1 Auburn vs. 16 Alabama State/St. Francis PA
8 Louisville vs. 9 Creighton
5 Michigan vs. 12 UC San Diego
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 Yale
6 Ole Miss vs. 11 SDSU/North Carolina
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Lipscomb
7 Marquette vs. 10 New Mexico
2 Michigan State vs. 15 Bryant

Plenty potential upsets to pick here, with the winner of the play-in game getting a good shot to keep playing. New Mexico should also be lively against Marquette at the bottom of the bracket. UC San Diego is a great 12-over-5 candidate, but unfortunately gets an under-seeded Michigan team off a Big Ten title.

West (San Francisco)

1 Florida vs. 16 Norfolk State
8 UConn vs. 9 Oklahoma
5 Memphis vs. 12 Colorado State
4 Maryland vs. 13 Grand Canyon
6 Missouri vs. 11 Drake
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 UNC Wilmington
7 Kansas vs. 10 Arkansas
2 St. John’s vs. 15 Omaha

A lot of chalk early in the West Region, but there are two excellent opportunities, including the first famous 5-over-12 pick of the year. Colorado State is among the hottest teams in the country, and Memphis has injury questions at the wrong time. Drake, meanwhile, is an auto-upset-pick with their dominant season and great story to follow.

East (Newark)

1 Duke vs. 16 American/Mount St. Mary’s
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Baylor
5 Oregon vs. 12 Liberty
4 Arizona vs. 13 Akron
6 BYU vs. 11 VCU
3 Wisconsin vs. 14 Montana
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Vanderbilt
2 Alabama vs. 15 Robert Morris

Nearly full chalk in the South region, where the top teams all look to have the upper-hand on their opponent. However, keep a close eye on VCU’s chance to disrupt things as a lively 11-seed which got a tough draw. Vanderbilt and St. Mary’s are also evenly matched, where things could go either way.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

1 Houston vs. 16 SIUE
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Georgia
5 Clemson vs. 12 McNeese
4 Purdue vs. 13 High Point
6 Illinois vs. 11 Texas/Xavier
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Troy
7 UCLA vs. 10 Utah State
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Wofford

The Midwest sees two big upset candidates in the first round, following the same philosophy of other bracket picks to this point. McNeese is one of the strongest mid-major programs in the country, coached by a leading candidate for big jobs and a tie to Clemson. The winner of the play-in game catches an inconsistent Illinois but both face their own issues.

Round of 32

South (Atlanta)

1 Auburn vs. 9 Louisville
5 Michigan vs. 4 Texas A&M
11 SDSU/North Carolina vs. 3 Iowa State
10 New Mexico vs. 2 Michigan State

Most of the higher seeds project to advance in the South Region, although Louisville looks like a solid challenger to an Auburn team trying to shake off a recent run of losses. The 4-vs.-5 matchup is also fascinating as Michigan and Texas A&M appear very close together in the hierarchy.

West (San Francisco)

1 Florida vs. 9 UConn
12 Colorado State vs. 4 Maryland
11 Drake vs. 3 Texas Tech
10 Kansas vs. 2 St. John’s

Another bracket where the top teams project to reach the Sweet 16 this season, but plenty to break down. Upset candidates Colorado State and Drake are both capable of reaching the second weekend, but face difficult matchups in the way.

East (Newark)

1 Duke vs. 8 Mississippi State
5 Oregon vs. 4 Arizona
6 BYU vs. 3 Wisconsin
10 Vanderbilt vs. 2 Alabama

The top seeds continue to project as the favorites in the East Region, but again provide plenty discussion. The margin between Arizona and Oregon is slim, just like it is between Wisconsin and BYU. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt already has plenty upset wins over SEC opponents this season.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

1 Houston vs. 8 Gonzaga
12 McNeese vs. 4 Purdue
6 Illinois vs. 3 Kentucky
7 UCLA vs. 2 Tennessee

While it might be too simplistic to continue picking the top teams, there is also a reason they clinched high seeds. Houston might be the 1-seed at most risk early, with Gonzaga in the way. Meanwhile McNeese and the play-in winner remain viable picks.