2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks for second weekend: Final Four favorites, plus more

The NCAA Tournament kicked off in full-force last weekend, but ended with rather chalky results outside of the typical 11-over-6 and 12-over-5 matchups which have become a staple of March Madness. The Cinderella run did not come this time around, setting up some big-time matchups between college basketball’s best teams throughout the season.

Headlined by all 1-seeds advancing, and all but one of the 2-seeds through to the Sweet 16 as well, the odds to win a national championship have not shifted far from the beginning. Now, as the difficultly of each matchup increases, the best teams will separate themselves on the biggest stage.

After correctly picking 42/52 winners (81%) in the first weekend, here are my best projections for the chalky Sweet 16 and Elite Eight as March Madness resumes this weekend.

Sweet 16

South (Atlanta)

1 Auburn vs. 5 Michigan
2 Michigan State vs. 6 Ole Miss

The South Region did not go full chalk in the first weekend, sending 5-seed Michigan past 4-seed Texas A&M and 6-seed Ole Miss past 3-seed Iowa State. However, neither projects to spoil the fun for the top seeds in Atlanta. Auburn is back to its winning ways with multiple ways to attack the Wolverines. Meanwhile, Michigan State has closed games strong but could leave the door open for an interesting matchup depending on how they shoot.

West (San Francisco)

1 Florida vs. 4 Maryland
10 Arkansas vs. 3 Texas Tech

Florida got a scare from UConn in the Round of 32, and Maryland advanced on the only March Madness buzzer-beater to this point. Both feature top starting lineups in college basketball, but the Gators hold a depth advantage. On the bottom of the bracket, Arkansas is the closest thing to an underdog story after knocking off 2-seed St. John’s. The Razorbacks are riding a hot streak at the perfect time facing a Texas Tech team which has not been at full health lately.

East (Newark)

1 Duke vs. 4 Arizona
2 Alabama vs. 6 BYU

Duke looked further ahead of its opponents than any team last weekend, taking care of both contests quickly while putting any Cooper Flagg injury concerns to bed. They now face off against old foe Caleb Love and an Arizona team with a long list of talented and willing role players around him. Alabama advanced to face a BYU team which has already survived two tough matchups against 11-seed VCU and 3-seed Wisconsin, but the advantage goes to the Crimson Tide just slightly.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

1 Houston vs. 4 Purdue
2 Tennessee vs. 3 Kentucky

As chalky as things get in the first and second round for the West Region, with seeds 1-4 all making their way to the Sweet 16 for marquee matchups. Houston looks to have an overall advantage on Purdue, but experienced veterans with NCAA Tournament experience could even things out. Tennessee, on the other hand, sees Kentucky often and had troubles at times. The Wildcats could be set up perfectly for a deep run under Mark Pope early in his tenure.

Elite Eight

South (Atlanta)

1 Auburn vs. 2 Michigan State

Auburn and Michigan State would present the type of matchup which cannot fully be quantified on paper, where the Tigers likely find an advantage. However, with Bruce Pearl and Tom Izzo on the sideline, and both teams’ ability to deliver in big moments down the stretch of the season, it feels like a close one.

West (San Francisco)

1 Florida vs. 10 Arkansas

It would be hard to classify catching a red-hot team with wins over the 2-seed and 3-seed a break for Florida, but it is a conference matchup which would not have scared them a short time ago. For Arkansas, there should be no fear either, with a free shot and no data points from the regular season stopping their NCAA Tournament run so far.

East (Newark)

1 Duke vs. 2 Alabama

Duke has the best player in college basketball, giving them an inherent advantage entering nearly every matchup on the schedule, including one against Alabama. The Crimson Tide have had a mixed-bag of results in this type of blockbuster game, but in the best performances have shown they can beat anyone when they are clicking on all cylinders.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

1 Houston vs. 3 Kentucky

Houston has come close to making the Final Four run under Kelvin Sampson, with multiple past teams capable but blocked on their path. This seems so close that the have to close the deal, barring the setbacks which have plagued those previous attempts. For Kentucky, it is a rare free shot for a blue-blood, with some big-time veterans who will not shy away from the moment.