2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections after calendar flips

As the new year begins, college basketball continues. The latest bracketology projections feature all the non-conference data from across the country and the early returns as teams face off with conference rivals in an effort to maintain or improve their position.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

As the bubble continues to develop, so do conference storylines which — like in all NCAA sports — seem to favor the Power Four in any comparison of resumes thanks to analytic data and the eye test.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Jan. 4.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Tennessee, Duke, Iowa State
Last four byes: Ohio State, Cincinnati, St. John’s, Penn State
Last four in: North Carolina, Louisville, Texas, Arizona State
First four out: BYU, UCF, SMU, Northwestern

First Four (Dayton)

16 Marist (MAAC) vs. 16 Holy Cross (Patriot)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Little Rock (OVC)
11 North Carolina vs. 11 Arizona State
11 Louisville vs. 11 Texas

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Southern/Little Rock
8 Arizona vs. 9 Clemson
Seattle
5 Oregon vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Memphis (AAC) vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Denver
6 Oklahoma vs. 11 Penn State
3 Houston vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Cleveland
7 Wisconsin vs. 10 St. John’s
2 Kentucky vs. 15 Milwaukee (Horizon)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn holds onto the top spot in this updated bracketology as they continue building on their resume which stacks up with any team in college basketball to this point. The conference schedule now promises to provide many more big opportunities.

2-seed Kentucky

Kentucky remains on the 2-seed line after starting SEC play with a big win over Florida, who was also in the mix for one of the top spots. The promising result further builds belief Mark Pope can keep this team among the best in college basketball all season.

West (San Francisco)

Wichita
1 Iowa State (Big 12) vs. 16 Marist/Holy Cross
8 SDSU vs. 9 Georgia
Denver
5 UCLA vs. 12 UC-San Diego (Big West)
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 Grand Canyon (WAC)
Seattle
6 Baylor vs. 11 Louisville/Texas
3 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
Cleveland
7 Ole Miss vs. 10 Cincinnati
2 Marquette (Big East) vs. 15 Akron (MAC)

1-seed Iowa State

Iowa State remains the top team in the Big 12, and also one of the best in college basketball as conference play begins. The Cyclones have just won loss and took care of a ranked foe in convincing fashion over the weekend.

2-seed Marquette

Marquette continues to hold off UConn and others to remain the best team in the Big East as the calendar flips and a new bracketology releases. The Golden Eagles got off to a good start to the new year with a win which hurt Creighton’s chances.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Raleigh
1 Tennessee vs. 16 UMass Lowell (AEC)
8 Nebraska vs. 9 Texas Tech
Milwaukee
5 Michigan State vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 Kansas vs. 13 South Alabama (SBC)
Wichita
6 Purdue vs. 11 North Carolina/Arizona State
3 Mississippi State vs. 14 South Dakota State (Summit)
Lexington
7 Utah State (MWC) vs. 10 Ohio State
2 Alabama vs. 15 High Point (Big South)

1-seed Tennessee

Tennessee continues to build its resume closer to the top of college basketball as the SEC provides many big-time matchups. Oh, and they are now the last unbeaten team, a title which they will cling to as a major point on the resume.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama has suffered some early losses but has bounced back on the way to SEC play. The Crimson Tide now looks close to its potential which gives them plenty upward trajectory for the coming months of action.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Maryland vs. 9 Arkansas
Providence
5 Pittsburgh vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 UConn vs. 13 Columbia (Ivy)
Providence
6 Michigan vs. 11 St. Bonaventure (A10)
3 Florida vs. 14 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Milwaukee
7 West Virginia vs. 10 Vanderbilt
2 Illinois vs. 15 Central Connecticut State (NEC)

1-seed Duke

Duke has firmly cemented its place on the 1-seed line now, and appears to be far above the class in the ACC this season. Picking up results in a conference which has not proved itself yet will be big for maintaining seeding.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois continues to build its resume with each win against strong competition. The computer numbers are heavily in favor of the Fighting Illini as the top team in the Big Ten and a real contender.