2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections after first NET rankings release

One month into the 2024-25 college basketball season begins, college basketball has enough data to start slotting teams into their position within the context of March Madness seeding. With this small pile of data, the analytics are ready to weigh in.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

While the first NET Rankings will not be released until later in the season, bracketology still aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

Early on-court results have brought plenty of storylines onto the table, especially after a chaotic Feast Week slate shook up the top teams in a major way. Multiple teams have shot up or down the board, changing the narrative from the preseason.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2024 NCAA Tournament, where the Big Ten is projected to make history:

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Dec. 1.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Kansas, Tennessee, Gonzaga
Last four byes: Maryland, Xavier, Ole Miss, UCLA
Last four in: Georgia, Michigan, Louisville, SDSU
First four out: Kansas State, Wake Forest, Indiana, Nevada

First Four (Dayton)

16 Mount St. Mary’s (MAAC) vs. 16 Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
16 Army (Patriot) vs. 16 Alabama A&M (SWAC)
11 Georgia vs. 11 Michigan
12 Louisville vs. 12 SDSU

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Alabama A&M/Army
8 Texas Tech vs. 9 St. Mary’s
Denver
5 Illinois vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Baylor vs. 13 Grand Canyon (WAC)
Providence
6 Memphis vs. 11 Georgia/Michigan
3 North Carolina vs. 14 Arkansas State (Sun Belt)
Lexington
7 Clemson vs. 10 Utah State
2 Alabama vs. 15 Longwood (Big South)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn currently holds the best resume in college basketball with plenty big wins over the top teams in the country. The Tigers have a combination of veteran players who have left no doubt they have a case for the No. 1 overall seed.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama has suffered some early losses while playing one of the toughest schedules in college basketball to this point, but the analytic models still favor them. The Crimson Tide still have plenty more opportunities and one of the deepest rosters in the sport.

West (San Francisco)

Seattle
1 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 16 Mount St. Mary’s/Northern Arizona
8 Texas A&M vs. 9 Nebraska
Seattle
5 Cincinnati vs. 12 UC-Irvine (Big West)
4 Oregon vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Denver
6 Arkansas vs. 11 UCLA
3 Houston vs. 14 Akron (MAC)
Cleveland
7 Texas vs. 10 Maryland
2 Marquette (Big East) vs. 15 Norfolk State (MEAC)

1-seed Gonzaga

Gonzaga slipped up in the Battle 4 Atlantis, but has also posted early results which show the Bulldogs can compete at the top of college basketball once again with a deep roster.

2-seed Marquette

Marquette moves up the board into the conversation for a top seed again this season after the team — which brought in zero transfer additions — has filled the holes left by talented players now in the NBA.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 Kansas (Big 12) vs. 16 Little Rock (OVC)
8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Ohio State
Milwaukee
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 Louisville/SDSU
4 Florida vs. 13 Columbia (Ivy)
Wichita
6 Michigan State vs. 11 Drake (MVC)
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Purdue Fort Wayne (Horizon)
Cleveland
7 BYU vs. 10 Xavier
2 Kentucky vs. 15 South Dakota State (Summit)

1-seed Kansas

Kansas remains one of the top teams in college basketball, living up to the preseason hype which showed them as the favorite to win it all. Still undefeated, Kansas only falls from the No. 1 overall seed due to Auburn’s already stacked resume.

2-seed Kentucky

Kentucky has proven early under Mark Pope that it will become an favorite in analytic models thanks to the fast-paced offensive system. The Wildcats have put together results to suggest they will be able to compete with the best all season long.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Tennessee vs. 16 Central Connecticut State (NEC)
8 Arizona vs. 9 Rutgers
Providence
5 Pittsburgh vs. 12 Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
4 UConn vs. 13 North Florida (ASUN)
Milwaukee
6 Mississippi State vs. 11 Dayton (A10)
3 Purdue vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
Raleigh
7 St. John’s vs. 10 Ole Miss
2 Duke vs. 15 Vermont (AEC)

1-seed Tennessee

Tennessee has slowly risen up the analytic models to start the season thanks to a solid offense which accompanies the typical Rick Barnes defensive scheme. The emergence of big-time transfers has allowed the Volunteers to pick up where they left off last season.

2-seed Duke

Duke has struggled in the clutch moments against college basketball’s best teams, but has the young players and supporting cast to compete with anyone. The computer numbers back up the Blue Devils despite those early struggles and make a flip easy to project.