2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections after Selection Committee sets tone

On Saturday morning, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee gave a sneak peek at how it currently views the Top 16 overall seeds, making up the regional host spots. The teams picked offer an important data point for reference when considering the resumes of teams across the board.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

With many of the top seeds set with the short turnaround from the reveal, the primary focus here is on the impact beyond those seeds. How the Selection committee treated those seeds will filter all the way to the bubble.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Feb. 15.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Florida, Alabama
Last four byes: Nebraska, BYU, UConn, Georgia
Last four in: SDSU, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, West Virginia
First four out: Arkansas, VCU, North Carolina, UC San Diego

First Four (Dayton)

16 SEMO (OVC) vs. 16 Omaha (Summit)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 American (Patriot)
11 SDSU vs. 11 West Virginia
11 Oklahoma vs. 11 Wake Forest

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Southern/American
8 Creighton vs. 9 Utah State
Seattle
5 Marquette vs. 12 UC Irvine (Big West)
4 Kansas vs. 13 UNC Greensboro (SoCon)
Providence
6 Michigan State vs. 11 SDSU/West Virginia
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Towson (CAA)
Wichita
7 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 10 Nebraska
2 Texas A&M vs. 15 Cleveland State (Horizon)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn re-establishes the gap atop bracketology with the No. 1 overall seed in hand. A road win against Alabama only further builds the resume into one which can withstand any comparative test and might have enough to add another loss without penalty again.

2-seed Texas A&M

Texas A&M got a huge nod of approval from the Selection Committee on Saturday, getting the No. 6 overall seed with a month left in the season. The Aggies did nothing to weaken their position with another SEC win over the weekend.

West (San Francisco)

Lexington
1 Alabama vs. 16 SEMO/Omaha
8 Oregon vs. 9 Gonzaga
Denver
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 George Mason (A10)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Denver
6 Illinois vs. 11 Oklahoma/Wake Forest
3 Arizona vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Wichita
7 UCLA vs. 10 Vanderbilt
2 Houston (Big 12) vs. 15 Montana (Big Sky)

1-seed Alabama

Alabama suffered a loss against Auburn at home, which will not hurt their resume much but could cost positioning on the 1-seed line with Duke and Florida both just behind them in the race for favorable region assignement.

2-seed Houston

Houston is firmly on the 2-seed line and got another level of cushion on Saturday when they added a big win in Big 12 play while watching Purdue drop a big-time matchup as well. The Cougars did land behind the 2-seed SEC teams, making their pursuit of a line jump a bit more complicated.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Raleigh
1 Florida vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 Baylor vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Seattle
5 Missouri vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 13 Jacksonville State (CUSA)
Cleveland
6 Memphis (AAC) vs. 11 Georgia
3 Purdue vs. 14 South Alabama (SBC)
Milwaukee
7 Louisville vs. 10 UConn
2 Iowa State vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)

1-seed Florida

As projected in the past bracketology update, the Selection Committee favored Florida as a 1-seed team, setting them up to jump Alabama in line after picking up a convincing SEC win over the weekend.

2-seed Iowa State

Even after landing as the top 3-seed as ranked by the Selection Committee on Saturday, bracketology projects a return to the 2-seed line quickly after Purdue fell for the second time in a week while the Cyclones picked up a win.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Texas vs. 9 Ohio State
Providence
5 Maryland vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Milwaukee
6 Mississippi State vs. 11 Drake (MVC)
3 Wisconsin vs. 14 North Alabama (ASUN)
Cleveland
7 Clemson vs. 10 BYU
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)

1-seed Duke

Duke looks to make a rise back to the No. 2 overall seed even after coming in at No. 3 in the eyes of the Selection Committee on Saturday morning. The Blue Devils have taken care of business on the court and saw Alabama drop their top-ranked showdown.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee sits in prime position to return to the 1-seed line with a slip from anyone above, as the Selection Committee confirmed on Saturday. For now, the Volunteers remain the top 2-seed contender in bracketology.