2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections as conference tournaments change outlook

As many conference tournaments around college basketball begin, a number of automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament are secured with more to come. As those teams finalize the position of the bubble, it provides a clear picture of what those biting their nails must accomplish to land on the right side.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

As each conference tournament game changes the outlook for teams across the country, there is plenty to look for in the projected field. Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

Bracket will be updated after each round of games.

All projections are based on data through Mar. 12.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
Last four byes: SDSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma
Last four in: West Virginia, Indiana, Xavier, North Carolina
First four out: Texas, Ohio State, Boise State, Colorado State

First Four (Dayton)

16 SIUE (OVC) vs. 16 ST. FRANCIS PA (NEC)
16 AMERICAN (Patriot) vs. 16 Jackson State (SWAC)
11 Ohio State vs. 11 SDSU
11 Texas vs. 11 Xavier

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 AMERICAN/Jackson State
8 Memphis (AAC) vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Seattle
5 Illinois vs. 12 DRAKE (MVC)
4 Clemson vs. 13 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Denver
6 Oregon vs. 11 UC San Diego (Big West)
3 Texas A&M vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Cleveland
7 BYU vs. 10 VCU (A10)
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)

1-seed Auburn

Even after back-to-back losses to close the regular season, Auburn can wrap thing up as the No. 1 overall seed with a win in the SEC Tournament. The gap between their resume and the field is so large that getting off the losing streak is all it should take to ease the minds of the selection committee.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee has plenty reason to show out in the SEC Tournament, with a potential return to the 1-seed line in play if they can make a deep run — particularly a deeper run than the other contenders in the conference.

West (San Francisco)

Raleigh
1 Florida vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 UConn vs. 9 Baylor
Denver
5 Arizona vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 HIGH POINT (Big South)
Milwaukee
6 GONZAGA (WCC) vs. 11 West Virginia/Indiana
3 Kentucky vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
Wichita
7 Missouri vs. 10 Utah State
2 Texas Tech vs. 15 MONTANA (Big Sky)

1-seed Florida

Florida holds the inside track for the final 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but cannot rest easy yet as the resume sits close enough to Alabama and Tennessee that the deepest run in the SEC Tournament could easily push that team above the others.

2-seed Texas Tech

Texas Tech jumps Kentucky in line for the final 2-seed spot before the start of each team’s conference tournament run. While the Wildcats still have a chance here, the Red Raiders take over the advantage based on the notes taken from a selection committee teleconference on Wednesday morning. Whichever of the two makes a deeper run in their conference tournament likely gets the spot.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Quinnipiac
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Creighton
Providence
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 Xavier/North Carolina
4 Maryland vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Providence
6 Michigan vs. 11 Oklahoma
3 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 14 UNC WILMINGTON (CAA)
Lexington
7 Kansas vs. 10 SDSU
2 Alabama vs. 15 OMAHA (Summit)

1-seed Duke

Duke has a slim chance to take over the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament this season, but likely enters as the second team in the bracket behind Auburn. Regardless, a run to the ACC championship would give the selection committee plenty to think about.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama is firmly in the mix of SEC teams looking to take over the final 1-seed spot in the field, with a chance to prove themselves by making the deepest run of the trio through the SEC Tournament given how close the resumes sit.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 SIUE/ST. FRANCIS PA
8 Marquette vs. 9 Arkansas
Seattle
5 Louisville vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Purdue vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Milwaukee
6 UCLA vs. 11 Vanderbilt
3 Iowa State vs. 14 WOFFORD (SoCon)
Cleveland
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Georgia
2 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15 ROBERT MORRIS (Horizon)

1-seed Houston

Houston sits firmly on the 1-seed line entering conference tournament week, with little to no threat of falling onto the 2-seed line given the need for teams below them to progress through the same bracket to improve their resumes.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State sits safely on the 2-seed line, likely to remain in their position regardless of the outcome during this week’s Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans see a gap in both directions, a rarity this high up in the projected NCAA Tournament field.