2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections as regular season ends, first tickets punched

March Madness is in full swing now as the regular season comes to a close and the postseason hits full swing. The first teams are now locking themselves into the NCAA Tournament field as automatic qualifiers and the bracketology bubble continues to take shape with one week to Selection Sunday.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

As the top overall seeds continue to shift, the conference tournament slate could see further changes with each result. Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Mar. 8.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
Last four byes: Arkansas, Utah State, West Virginia, SDSU
Last four in: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Indiana, Xavier
First four out: North Carolina, Texas, Boise State, Colorado State

First Four (Dayton)

16 Quinnipiac (MAAC) vs. 16 SIUE (OVC)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 American (Patriot)
11 Oklahoma vs. 11 Ohio State
12 Indiana vs. 12 Xavier

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Southern/American
8 Marquette vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Seattle
5 Michigan vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Clemson vs. 13 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Milwaukee
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 Oklahoma/Ohio State
3 Iowa State vs. 14 South Alabama (SBC)
Cleveland
7 Kansas vs. 10 Utah State
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn did not have the regular season conclusion they would have imagined, dropping both of their games over the past week against Texas A&M and Alabama. However, as discussed at length over the past month, the head start they built up provides them plenty cushion to remain No. 1 overall in bracketology.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee bounced back from its loss earlier in the week, but did not do enough to leap up the conversation for the final 1-seed spot up for grabs. The good news for the Volunteers is that they are not out of resume-building opportunities which could lift them back up the board in the SEC Tournament.

West (San Francisco)

Raleigh
1 Florida vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 UConn vs. 9 Baylor
Denver
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 Purdue vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Wichita
6 Gonzaga vs. 11 Arkansas
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Milwaukee
7 BYU vs. 10 Vanderbilt
2 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15 Robert Morris (Horizon)

1-seed Florida

Florida remains on the 1-seed line, holding off Alabama in large part thanks to the head-to-head win they picked up earlier in the week. The Gators remain a strong candidate for the final spot on the top line, but cannot let off the gas in the SEC Tournament with multiple rivals knocking at the door.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State holds onto its spot on the 2-seed line yet again, with their regular season finale on Sunday providing a chance to get close to locking themselves into that range before the start of the Big Ten Tournament. However, their upward mobility also remains limited in the 1-seed conversation.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Quinnipiac/SIUE
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Creighton
Providence
5 Louisville vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Maryland vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Providence
6 Missouri vs. 11 VCU (A10)
3 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 14 Chattanooga (SoCon)
Cleveland
7 Illinois vs. 10 SDSU
2 Kentucky vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)

1-seed Duke

Duke again holds onto the No. 2 overall seed as the gap grows between them and the chasing pack of 1-seed contenders remains large enough that they can keep focus on the potential of making an argument to surpass Auburn. The Blue Devils go into the ACC Tournament a clear favorite to run the table.

2-seed Kentucky

Kentucky currently holds a razor-thin advantage over Texas Tech for the final spot on the 2-seed line in the latest bracketology projections. Despite a worse overall record, they hold a better Quad 1 record and no Quad 3 loss, which shows up in their WAB advantage.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 OMAHA (SUMMIT)
8 UCLA vs. 9 Georgia
Seattle
5 Arizona vs. 12 Indiana/Xavier
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Denver
6 Oregon vs. 11 UC San Diego (Big West)
3 Texas A&M vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Lexington
7 Memphis (AAC) vs. 10 West Virginia
2 Alabama vs. 15 Towson (CAA)

1-seed Houston

Houston holds steady on bracketology’s projected 1-seed line, finishing the Big 12 season far above the pack as they look to close things out in the conference tournament. Provided they make it into the weekend, there is now a strong case to hold their spot on the top line regardless of what happens in the SEC Tournament.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama made a strong case to jump back onto the 1-seed line in the latest bracketology, but falls just short of moving up the board due largely to their head-to-head result against Florida earlier in the week. The Crimson Tide will be given their opportunity to reach the top line by making a deeper run through the SEC Tournament than their rivals.