2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections as SEC showdowns changes 1-seed list, bubble

As March Madness officially begins with the calendar flipping over and conference tournaments on the horizon, the weekend slate delivered the first taste of what is yet to come. Top among those results was a buzzer-beater win for Tennessee over Alabama to shift bracketology.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

As the top overall seeds shift again, the final week of regular season basketball could see further changes with each result.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Mar. 1.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Tennessee
Last four byes: SDSU, Georgia, Ohio State, North Carolina
Last four in: Arkansas, West Virginia, Boise State, Xavier
First four out: Oklahoma, Indiana, Texas, Cincinnati

First Four (Dayton)

16 Quinnipiac (MAAC) vs. 16 SEMO (OVC)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 American (Patriot)
11 Arkansas vs. 11 West Virginia
12 Boise State vs. 12 Xavier

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Southern/American
8 Illinois vs. 9 Baylor
Seattle
5 Maryland vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Denver
6 Marquette vs. 11 UC San Diego (Big West)
3 Missouri vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Cleveland
7 Memphis (AAC) vs. 10 Georgia
2 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn picks up another win to cement its spot at the top of bracketology, continuing to build more separation from the No. 1 overall seed and the rest of college basketball. There is close to nothing left which could keep them from controlling the South Region.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State holds onto its spot on the 2-seed line after seeing teams around them rise and fall, and will hold a big opportunity to move up on Sunday when they face fellow Wisconsin. The Spartans look to avoid a potential seed-line fall in bracketology with a win.

West (San Francisco)

Raleigh
1 Tennessee vs. 16 Quinnipiac/SEMO
8 BYU vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Seattle
5 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 Arizona vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Wichita
6 Louisville vs. 11 Arkansas/West Virginia
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Chattanooga (SoCon)
Milwaukee
7 Kansas vs. 10 Utah State
2 Wisconsin vs. 15 Robert Morris (Horizon)

1-seed Tennessee

Tennessee jumps back to the 1-seed line once again, capitalizing on a chance to go head-to-head with Alabama and secure a win. The task now will be holding off the pair of SEC contenders behind them over the final week and into the conference tournament.

2-seed Wisconsin

Wisconsin remains the final 2-seed in the updated bracketology field, with a marquee Big Ten matchup against Michigan State on deck to determine whether they move up the board or fall back into the mix for a 3-seed with hopes of returning.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Vanderbilt vs. 9 UConn
Providence
5 Clemson vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Michigan vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Providence
6 Mississippi State vs. 11 North Carolina
3 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 14 South Alabama (SBC)
Cleveland
7 Oregon vs. 10 VCU (A10)
2 Florida vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains the No. 2 overall seed as the gap grows between them and any potential jump to the top spot, while the race for the other two 1-seeds in bracketology remains far enough in the rearview mirror to feel comfortable at the top of the ACC standings.

2-seed Florida

Florida remains on the 2-seed line, just behind Alabama as they look to make a strong case to climb back onto the top line over the final week of the regular season. A head-to-head matchup with the Crimson Tide could determine how realistic of a pursuit they can make.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Raleigh
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Omaha (Summit)
8 UCLA vs. 9 Creighton
Denver
5 Purdue vs. 12 Boise State/Xavier
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Milwaukee
6 Ole Miss vs. 11 Ohio State
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Lexington
7 Gonzaga vs. 10 SDSU
2 Alabama vs. 15 Towson (CAA)

1-seed Houston

Houston climbs from the final spot on the 1-seed line to the No. 3 overall seed thanks to a loss by Alabama over the weekend. The Cougars continue to benefit from the SEC teams facing each other late while their Big 12 run continues.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama falls off the 1-seed line after a tight road loss against Tennessee, becoming the first team in line to jump back into the mix if any team above them falls. The Crimson Tide still hold many resume-building opportunities of their own over the final week.