2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections close out February, welcome March

The 1-seed line has continued to take shape over recent weeks, with teams shifting up and down as they pick up wins and losses in conference play. Alabama stuck as a top seed, but a loss against Missouri now brings Tennessee and Houston back into play for a jump.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

After the changes up top, there is also some shifting to account for through the middle of the field, which all trickles down to an updated look at the NCAA Tournament bubble entering the weekend.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Feb. 26.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Houston
Last four byes: Arkansas, Ohio State, Georgia, SDSU
Last four in: Oklahoma, West Virginia, North Carolina, Texas
First four out: SMU, Nebraska, Boise State, Indiana

First Four (Dayton)

16 Omaha (Summit) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
16 Marist (MAAC) vs. 16 American (Patriot)
11 Oklahoma vs. 11 Texas
11 West Virginia vs. 11 North Carolina

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Marist/American
8 BYU vs. 9 UConn
Seattle
5 Clemson vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 Jacksonville State (CUSA)
Milwaukee
6 Louisville vs. 11 Ohio State
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Towson (CAA)
Cleveland
7 Marquette vs. 10 Georgia
2 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15 Robert Morris (Horizon)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn stands firm at the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology for another week, with a sizeable gap protecting it and an even larger gap that has the Tigers nearly locked in as a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament already. Nothing changes here.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State gets another boost to help assert its place as a true contender for one of the top NCAA Tournament contenders as they keep moving up the bracketology board. The Spartans currently sit atop the conference standings in the Big Ten with a chance to add that title to the resume.

West (San Francisco)

Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 SEMO (OVC)
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Utah State
Denver
5 Purdue vs. 12 UC San Diego (Big West)
4 Iowa State vs. 13 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Wichita
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 West Virginia/North Carolina
3 Missouri vs. 14 Chattanooga (SoCon)
Milwaukee
7 Memphis (AAC) vs. 10 Arkansas
2 Wisconsin vs. 15 Montana (Big Sky)

1-seed Houston

Houston makes the leap to the 1-seed line after weeks of boasting a resume worthy of such a jump. The Cougars finally got the break needed above them in conjunction with one of their biggest Big 12 victories to date in the regular season.

2-seed Wisconsin

Wisconsin continues to sit right on the edge of contention for a 2-seed in the latest bracketology update. Upset losses around the Badgers have helped them build the case, which needs little help thanks to a resume that continues to improve over time.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Creighton vs. 9 Vanderbilt
Providence
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Michigan vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Providence
6 Kansas vs. 11 Oklahoma/Texas
3 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 14 James Madison (SBC)
Cleveland
7 Oregon vs. 10 New Mexico (MWC)
2 Florida vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains the clear No. 2 overall seed in bracketology, with a decent gap between where it stands and any potential fall to the 2-seed line. The Blue Devils have a few more resume-building opportunities on the schedule to catch Auburn but also few real chances to lose enough to hurt themselves on Selection Sunday.

2-seed Florida

Florida drops from the 1-seed line down into the mix of 2-seed contenders after taking a loss against Georgia on the road. Despite nearly coming back from a record deficit in the final minutes, the Gators likely would have lost the spot to Houston but could have remained above Tennessee.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Lexington
1 Alabama vs. 16 Omaha/Southern
8 UCLA vs. 9 Baylor
Seattle
5 Maryland vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Denver
6 Mississippi State vs. 11 SDSU
3 Arizona vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Raleigh
7 Illinois vs. 10 VCU (A10)
2 Tennessee vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)

1-seed Alabama

Alabama moves up the board in the latest bracketology projections after seeing Florida fall to the 2-seed line. The Crimson Tide now sit atop the group of four teams with every opportunity to clinch a 1-seed on Selection Sunday with razor-thin margins between them.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee sits in the top 2-seed slot, waiting once again for a team above to slip and open the door for a return to the top line. The Volunteers have plenty of opportunities remaining to build their resume, but with two realistic spots, there is fierce competition.