2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections entering conference championship weekend

The final round of conference tournament action have arrived, with nothing but top showdowns left on the schedule. As teams continue to lock themselves into the NCAA Tournament, bracketology must project how the final spots will be distributed across the bubble.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

The bubble shuffles with North Carolina and Texas both dropping games, but there is still plenty to unpack. Check out the final bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

Bracket will be updated after each round of games.

All projections are based on data through 2:30 am ET on Mar. 15
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
Last four byes: Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Utah State, West Virginia
Last four in: SDSU, Boise State, Texas, North Carolina
First four out: Colorado State, Xavier, Indiana, Ohio State

First Four (Dayton)

16 AMERICAN (Patriot) vs. 16 Jackson State (SWAC)
16 ST. FRANCIS PA (NEC) vs. 16 Iona (MAAC)
11 SDSU vs. 11 Texas
12 Boise State vs. 12 North Carolina

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 AMERICAN/Jackson State
8 Memphis (AAC) vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Seattle
5 BYU vs. 12 Boise State/North Carolina
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 HIGH POINT (Big South)
Denver
6 GONZAGA (WCC) vs. 11 UC San Diego (Big West)
3 Arizona vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Cleveland
7 Kansas vs. 10 Oklahoma
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)

1-seed Auburn

Even after back-to-back losses to close the regular season, Auburn can wrap thing up as the No. 1 overall seed with a win in the SEC Tournament. The gap between their resume and the field is so large that getting off the losing streak is all it should take to ease the minds of the selection committee.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee has plenty reason to show out in the SEC Tournament, with a potential return to the 1-seed line in play if they can make a deep run — particularly a deeper run than the other contenders in the conference.

West (San Francisco)

Raleigh
1 Florida vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 UConn vs. 9 Baylor
Denver
5 Oregon vs. 12 DRAKE (MVC)
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 LIPSCOMB (ASUN)
Milwaukee
6 UCLA vs. 11 West Virginia
3 Kentucky vs. 14 WOFFORD (SoCon)
Wichita
7 Illinois vs. 10 Arkansas
2 Texas Tech vs. 15 MONTANA (Big Sky)

1-seed Florida

Florida holds the inside track for the final 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but cannot rest easy yet as the resume sits close enough to Alabama and Tennessee that the deepest run in the SEC Tournament could easily push that team above the others.

2-seed Texas Tech

Texas Tech jumps Kentucky in line for the final 2-seed spot before the start of each team’s conference tournament run. While the Wildcats still have a chance here, the Red Raiders take over the advantage based on the notes taken from a selection committee teleconference on Wednesday morning. Whichever of the two makes a deeper run in their conference tournament likely gets the spot.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 ST. FRANCIS PA/Iona
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Creighton
Seattle
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Purdue vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Providence
6 Michigan vs. 11 SDSU/Texas
3 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 14 UNC WILMINGTON (CAA)
Lexington
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Utah State
2 Alabama vs. 15 OMAHA (Summit)

1-seed Duke

Duke has a slim chance to take over the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament this season, but likely enters as the second team in the bracket behind Auburn. Regardless of what happens from this point forward, getting Cooper Flagg healthy is the key to their success.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama is firmly in the mix of SEC teams looking to take over the final 1-seed spot in the field, with a chance to prove themselves by making the deepest run of the trio through the SEC Tournament given how close the resumes sit.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 SIUE (OVC)
8 Marquette vs. 9 Georgia
Providence
5 Clemson vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)
4 Maryland vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Milwaukee
6 Louisville vs. 11 Vanderbilt
3 Iowa State vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
Cleveland
7 Missouri vs. 10 VCU (A10)
2 Michigan State vs. 15 ROBERT MORRIS (Horizon)

1-seed Houston

Houston sits firmly on the 1-seed line entering conference tournament week, with little to no threat of falling onto the 2-seed line given the need for teams below them to progress through the same bracket to improve their resumes.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State sits safely on the 2-seed line, likely to remain in their position regardless of the outcome during this week’s Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans see a gap in both directions, a rarity this high up in the projected NCAA Tournament field.