2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections feature new 1-seed candidate

As the NCAA Tournament selection committee prepares to release the first look at how it views the Top-16 overall seeds to this point in the season, it is time for a final look at the March Madness field before adjustments are made to more accurately mimic those in charge.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

After big results for the top teams in college basketball over the past week, the status of the 1-seed line appears in the most flux all season, providing one team the opportunity to jump in the mix.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Feb. 12.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Alabama, Duke, Florida
Last four byes: Nebraska, Utah State, Vanderbilt, West Virginia
Last four in: Oklahoma, SMU, BYU, SDSU
First four out: VCU, Arkansas, Wake Forest, North Carolina

First Four (Dayton)

16 SEMO (OVC) vs. 16 Omaha (Summit)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 American (Patriot)
11 Oklahoma vs. 11 SMU
11 BYU vs. 11 SDSU

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Southern/American
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Nebraska
Seattle
5 Memphis (AAC) vs. 12 George Mason (A10)
4 Ole Miss vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Wichita
6 Illinois vs. 11 BYU/SDSU
3 Texas A&M vs. 14 FGCU (ASUN)
Milwaukee
7 UCLA vs. 10 Vanderbilt
2 Iowa State vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn retained the No 1. overall seed despite a loss last weekend, and rebounded in the midweek with a win against Vanderbilt. Now that position could be on the line Saturday when the Tigers face in-state rival Alabama on the road.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State jumps back onto the 2-seed line in the latest bracketology update thanks to a rebound effort in Big 12 play which has set up the Cyclones to compete again at the top of the conference and fight for competitive seeding in March.

West (San Francisco)

Raleigh
1 Florida vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Baylor vs. 9 UConn
Seattle
5 Missouri vs. 12 UC Irvine (Big West)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Arkansas State (SBC)
Denver
6 Michigan State vs. 11 Oklahoma/SMU
3 Arizona vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Wichita
7 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 10 Utah State
2 Houston (Big 12) vs. 15 Cleveland State (Horizon)

1-seed Florida

Florida continues to build one of the strongest resumes in the country, and now capitalizes on a Tennessee slip-up to climb the bracketology board and receive true 1-seed consideration for the first time.

2-seed Houston

Houston remains among the top teams in college basketball, sitting atop the Big 12 with no signs of slowing down on the court or in the computer numbers. The Cougars remain a contender for a 1-seed if things fall right.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Lexington
1 Alabama vs. 16 SEMO/Omaha
8 Creighton vs. 9 Oregon
Providence
5 Marquette vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 Jacksonville State (CUSA)
Denver
6 Mississippi State vs. 11 Drake (MVC)
3 Kansas vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Cleveland
7 Clemson vs. 10 New Mexico (MWC)
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Towson (CAA)

1-seed Alabama

Alabama saw its stock rise over the past week as it continued to win big games while others dropped opportunities. Now the Crimson Tide has a shot at the No. 1 overall seed over the weekend against in-state rival Auburn.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee suffered a loss against Kentucky in the midweek slate, putting a slight but important knock on their resume for a 1-seed. The Volunteers remain very much in the mix, and are currently the top team in contention to move back up.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Merrimack (MAAC)
8 Ohio State vs. 9 Texas
Providence
5 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Milwaukee
6 Maryland vs. 11 West Virginia
3 Kentucky vs. 14 UNC Greensboro (SoCon)
Cleveland
7 Louisville vs. 10 Georgia
2 Purdue vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)

1-seed Duke

Even after a loss last weekend, Duke remained one of the strongest 1-seed locks in bracketology. After the Blue Devils picked up a convincing midweek win in ACC play, they further cemented that narrative moving forward.

2-seed Purdue

Even after suffering a loss in Big Ten play, Purdue holds onto its spot among the 2-seed candidates in the latest bracketology thanks to the strong computer numbers it has built over the past month.