2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections reflect chaotic week

The college basketball rankings shift each week, with a long list of upsets reshaping the landscape of NCAA Tournament conversations. The bracketology projections change just as much.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

As the bubble continues to develop, upsets provide hope to a new group of teams looking to cement their resume in the eyes of the selection committee in March.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Jan. 18.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Alabama
Last four byes: North Carolina, Utah State, Cincinnati, Ohio State
Last four in: Texas, Creighton, Pittsburgh, SMU
First four out: Nebraska, SDSU, UCF, Indiana

First Four (Dayton)

16 Quinnipiac (MAAC) vs. 16 Long Island (NEC)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
11 Texas vs. 11 SMU
11 Creighton vs. 11 Pittsburgh

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Southern/Howard
8 Maryland vs. 9 Clemson
Seattle
5 Oregon vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Milwaukee
6 Baylor vs. 11 Texas/SMU
3 Illinois vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Cleveland
7 Louisville vs. 10 Cincinnati
2 Florida vs. 15 UNC Ashville (Big South)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn holds onto the top spot in this updated bracketology as they continue building on their resume which stacks up with any team in college basketball to this point. The Tigers have rolled through SEC play with a perfect record so far, even missing Johni Broome.

2-seed Florida

Florida jumps onto the 2-seed line this week, despite taking a loss against Missouri. The Gators benefit from the losses by those around them, as well as their own strength of wins over the past several weeks within the SEC.

West (San Francisco)

Lexington
1 Alabama vs. 16 Cleveland State (Horizon)
8 West Virginia vs. 9 St. Mary’s (WCC)
Denver
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 George Mason (A10)
4 Mississippi State vs. 13 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Wichita
6 Gonzaga vs. 11 UC Irvine (Big West)
3 Kansas vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Denver
7 Georgia vs. 10 Utah State
2 Houston (Big 12) vs. 15 Omaha (Summit)

1-seed Alabama

Alabama climbs onto the 1-seed line despite taking a loss against Ole Miss over the past week, relying on a combination of strong wins around that outlier and bad losses by the other teams in contention. As The Crimson Tide get healthy, they continue to move up.

2-seed Houston

Houston has nearly completed the rebound after a tough stretch in the non-conference portion of the schedule. Now flying through Big 12 play, the Cougars have rapidly improving computer metrics to go along side their solid record.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Quinnipiac/Long Island
8 UConn vs. 9 Oklahoma
Providence
5 Michigan vs. 12 Princeton (Ivy)
4 Ole Miss vs. 13 South Alabama (SBC)
Providence
6 Memphis vs. 11 New Mexico (MWC)
3 Marquette vs. 14 Colgate (Patriot)
Cleveland
7 St. John’s vs. 10 Ohio State
2 Kentucky vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)

1-seed Duke

Duke has firmly cemented its place on the 1-seed line now, and appears to be far above the class in the ACC this season. The misfortune of others across college basketball has only helped raise the stock of the Blue Devils.

2-seed Kentucky

Kentucky remains on the 2-seed line after starting SEC play looking like a real contender in the best conference in college basketball. What Mark Pope is doing might be unprecedented with a roster built from scratch, but it is very real.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 Iowa State vs. 16 William & Mary (CAA)
8 Vanderbilt vs. 9 UCLA
Seattle
5 Arizona vs. 12 Bradley (MVC)
4 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 13 New Mexico State (CUSA)
Milwaukee
6 Missouri vs. 11 Creighton/Pittsburgh
3 Purdue vs. 14 Miami (OH) (MAC)
Raleigh
7 Texas Tech vs. 10 North Carolina
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Morehead State (OVC)

1-seed Iowa State

Iowa State remains on the top line of this updated bracketology, despite taking an upset loss against West Virginia. The Cyclones lean on strong computer numbers, along with a big win within the Big 12 prior, knocking off Kansas.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee falls from the 1-seed line to the 2-seed line in the latest bracketology update, showing just how slim the margins are at that cusp. The Volunteers remain firmly in the mix for one of the top-four overall seeds as they compete with Alabama and others within the SEC.