2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections see movement on 1-seed line

The calendar flips to February, making every conference matchup that much more important with the NCAA Tournament on the horizon with just over a month left to solidify resumes. From the high-majors to mid-majors, every team is jockeying for position.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

As the bubble takes shape, the teams near the line must take advantaged of every opportunity they have to build their computer numbers and paper resume while maintaining the eye test.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Feb. 1.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Tennessee
Last four byes: Utah State, Georgia, Vanderbilt, BYU
Last four in: West Virginia, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, SMU
First four out: SDSU, Arkansas, Wake Forest, VCU

First Four (Dayton)

16 American (Patriot) vs. 16 Morehead State (OVC)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Omaha (Summit)
11 West Virginia vs. 11 North Carolina
11 Pittsburgh vs. 11 SMU

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 American/Morehead State
8 UCLA vs. 9 UConn
Seattle
5 Missouri vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Memphis (AAC) vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Denver
6 Oregon vs. 11 Drake (MVC)
3 Texas A&M vs. 14 Jacksonville State (CUSA)
Wichita
7 Louisville vs. 10 Georgia
2 Houston (Big 12) vs. 15 UNC Ashville (Big South)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn remains undefeated in SEC play, holding one of the nation’s longest win streaks as they push far ahead of the pack for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament this season. The Tigers now boast a cushion which could see them lose without falling.

2-seed Houston

Houston dropped a golden opportunity to climb from a 2-seed to the 1-seed line this week in bracketology, dropping a home game against Texas Tech over the weekend. The Cougars are still strongly in the mix to climb the board with big opportunities ahead.

West (San Francisco)

Raleigh
1 Tennessee vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Creighton vs. 9 Clemson
Seattle
5 Arizona vs. 12 UC-Irvine (Big West)
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 Grand Canyon (WAC)
Wichita
6 Mississippi State vs. 11 North Carolina/SMU
3 Kansas vs. 14 Bryant (AEC)
Cleveland
7 Texas vs. 10 BYU
2 Purdue vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)

1-seed Tennessee

Tennessee benefits from the chaotic nature of college basketball this season, as well as their bounce back effort against Florida to rise onto the 1-seed line once again. The Volunteers now look to hold off the pack behind them.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue quietly continues to build its resume and take advantage of others in the mix for top NCAA Tournament seeding with even more upsets around them this week. The Boilermakers just keep stacking wins and building the resume into a top contender.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Marist (MAAC)
8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Ohio State
Providence
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 George Mason (A10)
4 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Cleveland
6 Illinois vs. 11 West Virginia/Pittsburgh
3 Marquette vs. 14 FGCU (ASUN)
Milwaukee
7 Michigan vs. 10 West Virginia
2 Florida vs. 15 Towson (CAA)

1-seed Duke

Duke further solidified their spot as the second-best 1-seed candidate in college basketball, disposing of struggling rival North Carolina with ease to extend the win steak. The Blue Devils do not face many more challenges in the weakened ACC, giving them an inside track to hold strong.

2-seed Florida

Florida firmly plants itself on the 2-seed line once more in the latest bracketology projections, still in the mix in the SEC despite a blowout loss against Tennessee which fully flipped the script on the first meeting. The conference slate offers the Gators plenty more chances to get in the 1-seed mix.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Lexington
1 Alabama vs. 16 Omaha/Southern
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Baylor
Providence
5 Maryland vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Kentucky vs. 13 Arkansas State (SBC)
Denver
6 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 11 New Mexico (MWC)
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Milwaukee
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Vanderbilt
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Cleveland State (Horizon)

1-seed Alabama

Alabama strengthens its case to land a 1-seed in the latest bracketology update, continuing a strong run in SEC play which has boosted the number all around. The Crimson Tide continue to look the part of a top March Madness team since getting healthy.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State drops two games in one week, taking them out of consideration for a 1-seed spot for now as they regroup and look to repair the damage done to the resume before a 3-seed comes into play.