2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections shift with conference standings

As the college basketball slate continues, the conference standings across the country shift into place with a fresh perspective on who can compete for a place in the NCAA Tournament.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

As the bubble shifts, the threat of bid-stealers loom. Teams across the country should feel far from safe counting themselves in March Madness with more than a month left to go.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Jan. 25.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Alabama
Last four byes: Texas, Creighton, Ohio State, Oklahoma
Last four in: North Carolina, Pittsburgh, BYU, SDSU
First four out: UCF, SMU, Cincinnati, Arkansas

First Four (Dayton)

16 American (Patriot) vs. 16 Long Island (NEC)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Morehead State (OVC)
11 North Carolina vs. 11 BYU
11 Pittsburgh vs. 11 SDSU

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Southern/Morehead State
8 Clemson vs. 9 West Virginia
Seattle
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 Bradley (MVC)
4 Mississippi State vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Providence
6 Memphis (AAC) vs. 11 North Carolina/BYU
3 Marquette vs. 14 Jacksonville (ASUN)
Cleveland
7 Maryland vs. 10 Creighton
2 Florida vs. 15 UNC Ashville (Big South)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn held onto a win against Tennessee, which also cemented their spot as the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology once again. The gap between the Tigers and chasing teams like Duke is not insurmountable, but will require a loss from the top team in college basketball.

2-seed Florida

Florida firmly plants itself on the 2-seed line once more in the latest bracketology projections, still in the mix in the SEC as the best of the best slug it out. The Gators will have plenty opportunities to climb into the mix for a 1-seed as the season unfolds.

West (San Francisco)

Lexington
1 Alabama vs. 16 Southern/Morehead State
8 Baylor vs. 9 UCLA
Seattle
5 Oregon vs. 12 UC Irvine (Big West)
4 Ole Miss vs. 13 MTSU (CUSA)
Milwaukee
6 Arizona vs. 11 Pittsburgh/SDSU
3 Michigan State vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Wichita
7 Missouri vs. 10 New Mexico (MWC)
2 Houston (Big 12) vs. 15 Cleveland State (Horizon)

1-seed Alabama

Alabama just holds onto a spot as a 1-seed in the latest bracketology update, holding off Tennessee which could have made the leap with a win against Auburn. The Crimson Tide continue to look the part of a top March Madness team since getting healthy.

2-seed Houston

Houston continues the upward momentum it has picked up, getting them back in the mix for a top seed in March Madness. The Cougars sit atop the Big 12 standings as they roll through tough games over the past month.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Marist (MAAC)
8 Georgia vs. 9 UConn
Providence
5 Louisville vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Illinois vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Milwaukee
6 Michigan vs. 11 VCU (A10)
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Bryant (AEC)
Cleveland
7 Utah State vs. 10 Texas
2 Purdue vs. 15 William & Mary (CAA)

1-seed Duke

Duke has firmly cemented its place on the 1-seed line and shows no sign of slowing down. The Blue Devils still have upward mobility as they cruise through the ACC schedule with a group of developing freshmen out front.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue quietly continues to build its resume and take advantage of others in the mix for top NCAA Tournament seeding suffering upsets over the past several weeks. Again, the Boilermakers are in the mix ahead of March Madness.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 Iowa State vs. 16 Omaha (Summit)
8 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 9 Vanderbilt
Denver
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 Arkansas State (SBC)
Denver
6 Gonzaga vs. 11 Oklahoma
3 Kansas vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Raleigh
7 St. John’s vs. 10 Ohio State
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Norfolk State (MEAC)

1-seed Iowa State

Iowa State keeps their place on the 1-seed line in the latest bracketology projections, remaining in the mix in the Big 12 and asserting themselves in big matchups throughout the first month of conference play.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee holds onto its spot on the 2-seed line despite a recent loss against Auburn, as the Volunteers remain on the edge of an upward line move thanks to their strong record and solid computer numbers.