2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections show critical changes on 1-seed line

As focus has turned to the list of 1-seed candidates over recent weeks, the movement across the bubble took a slight back seat. However, with just one weekend left in the regular season and then the conference tournaments in the way of Selection Sunday, spots on both ends of the bracket are in the air.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket. After a midweek slate, which once again shifted the landscape of the top seeds and the bubble, there is plenty to unpack as the candidates run out of resume-building opportunities.

Where do things stand as of now? Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Mar. 5.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
Last four byes: Arkansas, Utah State, West Virginia, North Carolina
Last four in: Ohio State, SDSU, Texas, Xavier
First four out: Oklahoma, Indiana, Boise State, SMU

First Four (Dayton)

16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 American (Patriot)
11 Ohio State vs. 11 SDSU
11 Texas vs. 11 Xavier

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Southern/American
8 BYU vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Seattle
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Maryland vs. 13 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Denver
6 Oregon vs. 11 UC San Diego (Big West)
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Cleveland
7 Illinois vs. 10 Utah State
2 Tennessee vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)

1-seed Auburn

Despite taking a loss against Texas A&M in the midweek slate, Auburn remains the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology by a decent margin. The Tigers retain enough of a gap that they should hold the spot through another potential loss while entering Selection Sunday on a losing streak could put them in danger.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee returns to the 2-seed line after a brief jump back to the top line, losing a midweek game against Ole Miss which opened the window for their conference rivals to jump in line. The Volunteers remain in play for the final 1-seed spot with the final week before Selection Sunday ahead.

West (San Francisco)

Raleigh
1 Florida vs. 16 SEMO (OVC)
8 UConn vs. 9 Baylor
Seattle
5 Missouri vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Arizona vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Wichita
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 Ohio State/SDSU
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Chattanooga (SoCon)
Milwaukee
7 Kansas vs. 10 Georgia
2 Wisconsin vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)

1-seed Florida

Florida makes the jump back onto the 1-seed line in the latest bracketology update. The Gators now boast wins over Auburn, Alabama and Tennessee which help build the case to land above their rivals under the current landscape entering the final days before the NCAA Tournament is revealed.

2-seed Wisconsin

Wisconsin just squeaks into the 2-seed line with razor-thin margins between them and the chasing pack of teams currently on the 3-seed line ready to make a leap up the board at the first sign of a change in resume comparisons between them. The Badgers need to keep the pedal down to secure this spot.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Norfolk State/Quinnipiac
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Creighton
Providence
5 Clemson vs. 12 Texas/Xavier
4 Purdue vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Providence
6 Louisville vs. 11 West Virginia
3 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 14 South Alabama (SBC)
Lexington
7 Memphis (AAC) vs. 10 VCU (A10)
2 Alabama vs. 15 Towson (CAA)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains the clear No. 2 overall seed in bracketology, with a decent gap between where it stands and any potential fall to the 2-seed line. The Blue Devils make a small step forward in their pursuit of the top spot but will need more help from Auburn to get there.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama now sits in the top spot on the 2-seed line, losing a chance to establish itself on the 1-seed line with some distance after losing against Florida in the midweek slate. They now look to rebound with big opportunities still on deck and a chance to get back in the mix in future bracketology updates.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Omaha (Summit)
8 UCLA vs. 9 Vanderbilt
Denver
5 Michigan vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Milwaukee
6 Gonzaga vs. 11 North Carolina
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 Jacksonville State (CUSA)
Cleveland
7 Marquette vs. 10 Arkansas
2 Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. 15 Robert Morris (Horizon)

1-seed Houston

Houston continues to solidify its position on the 1-seed line as the SEC teams below them battle for the final spot below them. The Cougars are in solid position to retain their spot given the need for those around them to play each other the rest of the way.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State holds firm in the mix for a 2-seed, continuing to rest on the outside looking in at a potential jump into the mix for the final 1-seed spot on Selection Sunday. The only path for the Spartans to reach those heights appears to be a run through the Big Ten tournament with helpful results above them.