2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections show movement before Selection Sunday

As many conference tournaments around college basketball wrap up, there are only a few automatic bids left up for grabs in the field of 68. However, the NCAA Tournament is not set yet, and there are multiple teams still fighting for their season with hopes of playing on the biggest stage next week and beyond.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

After a week of critical results which promise to shape the bubble picture through the final hours, there is plenty for the selection committee to take in. Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through 1:05 pm ET on Mar. 15
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
Last four byes: Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Utah State, West Virginia
Last four in: SDSU, Boise State, North Carolina, Texas
First four out: Colorado State, Xavier, Indiana, UC Irvine

First Four (Dayton)

16 AMERICAN (Patriot) vs. 16 Jackson State (SWAC)
16 ST. FRANCIS PA (NEC) vs. 16 Iona (MAAC)
11 SDSU vs. 11 North Carolina
12 Boise State vs. 12 Texas

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 AMERICAN/Jackson State
8 Memphis (AAC) vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Seattle
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Purdue vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Denver
6 Missouri vs. 11 UC San Diego (Big West)
3 Arizona vs. 14 Utah Valley (MAC)
Cleveland
7 UCLA vs. 10 Oklahoma
2 Tennessee vs. 15 BRYANT (AEC)

1-seed Auburn

Even after back-to-back losses to close the regular season, Auburn has wrapped thing up as the No. 1 overall seed with a win in the SEC Tournament. The gap between their resume and the field is so large that getting off the losing streak is all it took to ease the minds before looking to add a conference title.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee has plenty reason to show out in the SEC Tournament, with a potential return to the 1-seed line in play if they can make a deep run — particularly a deeper run than the other contenders in the conference.

West (San Francisco)

Raleigh
1 Florida vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 UConn vs. 9 Baylor
Denver
5 Oregon vs. 12 DRAKE (MVC)
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 LIPSCOMB (ASUN)
Milwaukee
6 GONZAGA (WCC) vs. 11 West Virginia
3 Kentucky vs. 14 WOFFORD (SoCon)
Wichita
7 Illinois vs. 10 Arkansas
2 Texas Tech vs. 15 MONTANA (Big Sky)

1-seed Florida

Florida holds the inside track for the final 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but cannot rest easy yet as the resume sits close enough to Alabama and Tennessee that the deepest run in the SEC Tournament could easily push that team above the others.

2-seed Texas Tech

Texas Tech jumps Kentucky in line for the final 2-seed spot and promises to stick there through Selection Sunday as both teams fall on the same night during conference tournaments. The only other team left with enough time to challenge is St. John’s in the Big East.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 ST. FRANCIS PA/Iona
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Creighton
Seattle
5 BYU vs. 12 Boise State/Texas
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 HIGH POINT (Big South)
Providence
6 Michigan vs. 11 SDSU/North Carolina
3 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 14 UNC WILMINGTON (CAA)
Cleveland
7 Kansas vs. 10 VCU
2 Michigan State vs. 15 ROBERT MORRIS (Horizon)

1-seed Duke

Duke remains the clear No. 2 overall seed in bracketology, with a decent gap between where it stands and any potential fall to the 2-seed line. The Blue Devils are now playing without Cooper Flagg in the ACC Tournament, further limiting any move down with a loss.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State sits safely on the 2-seed line, likely to remain in their position regardless of the outcome during this week’s Big Ten Tournament. The Spartans see a gap in both directions, a rarity this high up in the projected NCAA Tournament field.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 SIUE (OVC)
8 Marquette vs. 9 Georgia
Providence
5 Clemson vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)
4 Maryland vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Milwaukee
6 Louisville vs. 11 Vanderbilt
3 Iowa State vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
Lexington
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Utah State
2 Alabama vs. 15 OMAHA (Summit)

1-seed Houston

Houston sits firmly on the 1-seed line entering championship weekend, with little to no threat of falling onto the 2-seed line given the need for teams below them to progress through the same bracket to improve their resumes.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama is firmly in the mix of SEC teams looking to take over the final 1-seed spot in the field, with a chance to prove themselves by making the deepest run of the trio through the SEC Tournament given how close the resumes sit.