2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections show movement before Selection Sunday

As many conference tournaments around college basketball wrap up, there are only a few automatic bids left up for grabs in the field of 68. However, the NCAA Tournament is not set yet, and there are multiple teams still fighting for their season with hopes of playing on the biggest stage next week and beyond.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

After Colorado State jumps from potential bid stealer to dangerous tournament team and St. John’s reaches the 2-seed line, there is plenty to sort out on the bubble. Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

Bracket will be updated after each round of games.

All projections are based on data through 2:30 am ET on Mar. 16
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
Last four byes: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Utah State
Last four in: West Virginia, SDSU, North Carolina, Texas
First four out: Xavier, Indiana, Boise State, Ohio State

First Four (Dayton)

16 AMERICAN (Patriot) vs. 16 ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)
16 MOUNT ST. MARY’S (MAAC) vs. 16 ST. FRANCIS PA (NEC)
11 West Virginia vs. 11 SDSU
12 North Carolina vs. 12 Texas

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn vs. 16 AMERICAN/ALABAMA STATE
8 Memphis (AAC) vs. 9 COLORADO STATE (MWC)
Seattle
5 Michigan vs. 12 North Carolina/Texas
4 Iowa State vs. 13 HIGH POINT (Big South)
Denver
6 Missouri vs. 11 UC SAN DIEGO (Big West)
3 Arizona vs. 14 WOFFORD (SoCon)
Cleveland
7 Kansas vs. 10 Oklahoma
2 Michigan State vs. 15 MONTANA (Big Sky)

1-seed Auburn

Even after back-to-back losses to close the regular season, Auburn has wrapped thing up as the No. 1 overall seed with a win in the SEC Tournament. The gap between their resume and the field is so large that getting off the losing streak is all it took to ease the minds before looking to add a conference title.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State sits safely on the 2-seed line, likely to remain in their position regardless of the outcome of the remaining championship weekend results. The Spartans see a gap in both directions, a rarity this high up in the projected NCAA Tournament field.

West (San Francisco)

Raleigh
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
8 UConn vs. 9 Baylor
Providence
5 BYU vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)
4 Maryland vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Wichita
6 Louisville vs. 11 Vanderbilt
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 UNC WILMINGTON (CAA)
Providence
7 Illinois vs. 10 Arkansas
2 ST. JOHN’S vs. 15 BRYANT (AEC)

1-seed Florida

Florida holds the inside track for the final 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but cannot rest easy yet as the resume sits close enough to Alabama and Tennessee that the deepest run in the SEC Tournament could easily push that team above the others.

2-seed St. John’s

St. John’s completes the run through the Big East Tournament to improve their resume enough to surpass the likes of Kentucky and Texas Tech on the way to a potential 2-seed berth on Selection Sunday. The overall record and close analytic numbers build their case.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 DUKE (ACC) vs. 16 MOUNT ST. MARY’S/ST. FRANCIS PA
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 Creighton
Seattle
5 Clemson vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Purdue vs. 13 GRAND CANYON (WAC)
Milwaukee
6 Ole Miss vs. 11 VCU (A10)
3 Wisconsin vs. 14 WOFFORD (SoCon)
Cleveland
7 UCLA vs. 10 New Mexico
2 Tennessee vs. 15 ROBERT MORRIS (Horizon)

1-seed Duke

Duke will now have the opportunity to make its case as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament following the loss by Auburn. While it is unclear if another win would do enough, the conversation would grow louder. The Blue Devils are now playing without Cooper Flagg in the ACC Tournament, limiting any potential move down with a loss.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee has made its case as a viable candidate for the final 1-seed spot, but will still likely need a win in the SEC Tournament championship to secure the title with Alabama and Florida on the other side of the bracket ready to improve a rival resume later in the day.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 HOUSTON (Big 12) vs. 16 SIUE (OVC)
8 Marquette vs. 9 Georgia
Denver
5 Oregon vs. 12 DRAKE (MVC)
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 LIPSCOMB (ASUN)
Milwaukee
6 GONZAGA (WCC) vs. 11 West Virginia/SDSU
3 Kentucky vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
Lexington
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 Utah State
2 Alabama vs. 15 OMAHA (Summit)

1-seed Houston

Houston sits firmly on the 1-seed line entering championship weekend, with little to no threat of falling onto the 2-seed line given the need for teams below them to progress through the same bracket to improve their resumes.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama is firmly in the mix of SEC teams looking to take over the final 1-seed spot in the field, with a chance to prove themselves by making the deepest run of the trio through the SEC Tournament given how close the resumes sit.