2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections turn focus to No. 1 overall seed

After saying that Auburn had enough cushion above the rest of college basketball to hold onto the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology with a loss, that theory was put to the test. Another upset loss by Duke further complicates the conversation atop the NCAA Tournament field.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

While the primary focus is on the top seeds, there is plenty important movement on the bubble, setting teams up for important runs over the next month of regular season games.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Feb. 8.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Tennessee, Alabama
Last four byes: Georgia, Utah State, West Virginia, Vanderbilt
Last four in: SMU, VCU, Wake Forest, Nebraska
First four out: North Carolina, Arkansas, BYU, SDSU

First Four (Dayton)

16 Little Rock (OVC) vs. 16 Omaha (Summit)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 American (Patriot)
11 SMU vs. 11 Nebraska
11 VCU vs. 11 Wake Forest

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Southern/American
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Seattle
5 Marquette vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Michigan State vs. 13 Arkansas State (SBC)
Denver
6 Missouri vs. 11 SMU/Nebraska
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Wichita
7 Clemson vs. 10 Utah State
2 Texas A&M vs. 15 Cleveland State (Horizon)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn hangs onto the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology despite a loss, as promised over the past several weeks. The theory was never fully tested as the only team within striking distance, Duke, also lost a game.

2-seed Texas A&M

Texas A&M makes the jump from the 3-seed line into the mix of 2-seed contenders after watching others continue to put dents in their resume. Meanwhile, the Aggies put another Quad 1 win on the board in a conference filled with opportunities to sure up the computer numbers.

West (San Francisco)

Raleigh
1 Tennessee vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Ohio State vs. 9 UConn
Seattle
5 Michigan vs. 12 UC-Irvine (Big West)
4 Ole Miss vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Denver
6 UCLA vs. 11 Drake (MVC)
3 Arizona vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Cleveland
7 Louisville vs. 10 Georgia
2 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 15 FGCU (ASUN)

1-seed Tennessee

Tennessee holds off other teams looking to make their case for a 1-seed spot in the latest bracketology update, boasting strong computer numbers and a large collection of Quad 1 wins to hold off teams with a better overall record.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue remains a steady presence on the 2-seed line in the projected NCAA Tournament field, mowing through two more Big Ten opponents as they fight for a regular season title. The Boilermakers’ continued success has them in the mix to keep moving up.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Lexington
1 Alabama vs. 16 Little Rock/Omaha
8 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 9 Oregon
Providence
5 Memphis (AAC) vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Milwaukee
6 Mississippi State vs. 11 VCU/Wake Forest
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Jacksonville State (CUSA)
Wichita
7 Creighton vs. 10 Oklahoma
2 Houston (Big 12) vs. 15 Towson (CAA)

1-seed Alabama

Alabama solidified itself on the 1-seed line again this week, winning a road game against Arkansas which sets them up to surpass Duke and get a shot at the No. 1 overall seed next week when they face in-state rival Auburn.

2-seed Houston

Houston remains firmly in the mix of top teams waiting for another 1-seed spot to open up, but lost ground this week through no fault of their own after Florida picked up the best win in the country. The Cougars boast plenty opportunities of their own in the Big 12.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Merrimack (MAAC)
8 Baylor vs. 9 Texas
Providence
5 Kentucky vs. 12 George Mason (A10)
4 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Milwaukee
6 Illinois vs. 11 Vanderbilt
3 Kansas vs. 14 Bryant (AEC)
Milwaukee
7 Maryland vs. 10 West Virginia
2 Florida vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)

1-seed Duke

After suffering an upset loss against Clemson on the road, Duke drops one spot on the 1-seed line, but more importantly falls within striking range of more high-level teams with greater resume-building opportunities in their conference.

2-seed Florida

Florida pulled off an upset win over Auburn on the road, solidifying them as the top 2-seed team in the projected NCAA Tournament field and the first in line to challenge for a 1-seed spot if another team above them suffers a slip-up and the Gators continue winning.