2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections with 1-seed changes

The 1-seed line has continued to take shape over recent weeks, with teams shifting up and down as they pick up wins and losses in conference play. Alabama stuck as a top seed, but a loss against Missouri now brings Tennessee and Houston back into play for a jump.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

After the changes up top, there is also some shifting to account for through the middle of the field, which all trickles down to an updated look at the NCAA Tournament bubble entering the weekend.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Feb. 19.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Florida, Tennessee
Last four byes: Ohio State, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Georgia
Last four in: SDSU, Wake Forest, Nebraska, Oklahoma
First four out: VCU, SMU, Arkansas, North Carolina

First Four (Dayton)

16 SEMO (OVC) vs. 16 Omaha (Summit)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 American (Patriot)
11 SDSU vs. 11 Oklahoma
11 Wake Forest vs. 11 Nebraska

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Southern/American
8 Oregon vs. 9 UConn
Seattle
5 Michigan State vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Denver
6 Louisville vs. 11 Drake (MVC)
3 Missouri vs. 14 South Alabama (SBC)
Wichita
7 Gonzaga vs. 10 Ohio State
2 Houston (Big 12) vs. 15 Cleveland State (Horizon)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn stands firm at the No. 1 overall seed in bracketology for another week, with a sizeable gap protecting them and an even larger gap which has them nearly locked in as a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament already.

2-seed Houston

Houston remains a strong contender to make the jump from a 2-seed to a 1-seed, as the Cougars buy time and continue picking up results while awaiting the fall of any team above them which would certainly open the door now.

West (San Francisco)

Lexington
1 Tennessee vs. 16 SEMO/Omaha
8 UCLA vs. 9 BYU
Providence
5 Ole Miss vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 13 Chattanooga (SoCon)
Denver
6 Illinois vs. 11 SDSU/Oklahoma
3 Arizona vs. 14 Utah Valley (WAC)
Cleveland
7 Memphis (AAC) vs. 10 West Virginia
2 Alabama vs. 15 Bryant (AEC)

1-seed Tennessee

Tennessee makes a jump back into the final 1-seed spot after an ugly Alabama loss to Missouri. The Volunteers now enter a big-time weekend matchup which will either solidify their spot or drop them back into the mix as a 2-seed.

2-seed Alabama

After Alabama’s loss against Missouri, the computer numbers still make a convincing case to hold onto the last 1-seed spot. However, the eye test was just too bad to give them the nod in a close race until they can bounce back and retake the position.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Quinnipiac (MAAC)
8 Baylor vs. 9 Texas
Providence
5 Maryland vs. 12 George Mason (A10)
4 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 13 Jacksonville State (CUSA)
Milwaukee
6 Marquette vs. 11 Wake Forest/Nebraska
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Towson (CAA)
Cleveland
7 Kansas vs. 10 Vanderbilt
2 Wisconsin vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)

1-seed Duke

Duke continues to pop up as an obvious 1-seed candidate in bracketology, holding a decent gap between where they are now and the 2-seed line beyond Alabama and Houston as they continue to rack up results in conference play and build their computer numbers.

2-seed Wisconsin

Wisconsin is surging fast toward the top of college basketball with great computer numbers, a building resume and an eye test worthy of a big leap. The Badgers have emerged playing some of the best basketball lately and get a 2-seed nod in bracketology in response.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Raleigh
1 Florida vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Creighton vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Seattle
5 Mississippi State vs. 12 UC Irvine (Big West)
4 Purdue vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Milwaukee
6 Clemson vs. 11 Georgia
3 Iowa State vs. 14 North Alabama (ASUN)
Wichita
7 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 10 Utah State
2 Texas A&M vs. 15 Montana (Big Sky)

1-seed Florida

Florida remains firmly on the 1-seed line in this updated bracketology, holding firm behind Auburn and Duke right in the mix with Tennessee, Alabama and Houston. The Gators have now joined the group with some cushion between them and the rest of the 2-seed line.

2-seed Texas A&M

Texas A&M suffered a loss just after getting the nod from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as a top 2-seed candidate to this point, but has a quick opportunity to jump right back up with a win over the weekend.