2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections with movement through middle of field

As movement across college basketball continues, the importance of bracketology grows and the frequency of updates increases. From the top of the NCAA Tournament field to the bubble, things are volatile enough to warrant more attention.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

As the bubble takes shape, the teams near the line must take advantaged of every opportunity they have to build their computer numbers and paper resume while maintaining the eye test.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Feb. 5.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Tennessee, Alabama
Last four byes: Clemson, BYU, West Virginia, Vanderbilt
Last four in: Utah State, SMU, Nebraska, North Carolina
First four out: SDSU, Arkansas, Wake Forest, VCU

First Four (Dayton)

16 American (Patriot) vs. 16 Morehead State (OVC)
16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Omaha (Summit)
11 Utah State vs. 11 North Carolina
11 SMU vs. 11 Nebraska

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 American/Morehead State
8 Oregon vs. 9 New Mexico (MWC)
Providence
5 Maryland vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Ole Miss vs. 13 Arkansas State (SBC)
Seattle
6 St. Mary’s (WCC) vs. 11 SMU/Nebraska
3 Arizona vs. 14 FGCU (ASUN)
Cleveland
7 Louisville vs. 10 West Virginia
2 Florida vs. 15 CCSU (NEC)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn has clearly separated itself from the rest of college basketball in the hunt for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament this season. The Tigers remain undefeated in SEC play with no signs of slowing down.

2-seed Florida

Florida remains in the mix as a 2-seed in this updated version of bracketology, continuing to assert themselves in the elite second tier of SEC teams ready to host a regional when the NCAA Tournament begins.

West (San Francisco)

Lexington
1 Alabama vs. 16 Southern/Omaha
8 Gonzaga vs. 9 Ohio State
Seattle
5 Michigan State vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 Missouri vs. 13 Grand Canyon (WAC)
Denver
6 Illinois vs. 11 UC-Irvine (Big West)
3 Texas A&M vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Wichita
7 UCLA vs. 10 Georgia
2 Kansas vs. 15 UNC-Ashville (Big South)

1-seed Alabama

Alabama remains a strong contender for a 1-seed spot in March Madness, losing ground to Tennessee through no fault of their own as the strength of certain wins shift the computer numbers of both teams throughout SEC play.

2-seed Kansas

Kansas jumps back onto the 2-seed line in this updated bracketology, thanks to a win over struggling Iowa State which moved them up the hierarchy of the Big 12 standings. The Jayhawks have solid computer numbers but need to find consistency in results.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke vs. 16 Marist (MAAC)
8 Creighton vs. 9 Texas
Providence
5 Kentucky vs. 12 George Mason (A10)
4 Marquette vs. 13 Samford (SoCon)
Milwaukee
6 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 11 Vanderbilt
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Jacksonville State (CUSA)
Cleveland
7 Oklahoma vs. 10 BYU
2 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 15 Cleveland State (Horizon)

1-seed Duke

Duke has become the clear No. 2 overall seed leading up to this year’s NCAA Tournament, with perhaps the best chance to catch Auburn up top of any team in college basketball. The Blue Devils continue to dominate the ACC.

2-seed Purdue

Purdue has taken over at the top of the Big Ten standings, proving that this team has hit its stride at the right time of year. The Boilermakers continue to prove continuity is a formula that works for them with win after win.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Raleigh
1 Tennessee vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Baylor vs. 9 UConn
Milwaukee
5 Memphis vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 Wisconsin vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Denver
6 Michigan vs. 11 Utah State/North Carolina
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 Bryant (AEC)
Wichita
7 Mississippi State vs. 10 Clemson
2 Houston (Big 12) vs. 15 Towson (CAA)

1-seed Tennessee

Tennessee makes a climb from the last 1-seed to third in line, giving them a more favorable spot in the bracket in this updated bracketology. The Volunteers remain even with Alabama across multiple metrics as they jockey for position.

2-seed Houston

Houston remains among the top teams in college basketball, taking over atop the Big 12 by handling their matchups with top opponents in the conference. The Cougars now set their sights on rising to 1-seed status.