2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bracketology projections with SEC on historic pace

Now multiple weeks into December, teams across college basketball can be more accurately judged based on their non-conference resume. The drastic shifts in analytic data over the past couple weeks leaves a need to update the 2025 bracketology projections.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March.

While the first NET Rankings will not be released until later in the season, bracketology still aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

With conference expansion, the Big East’s record of 11 bids has been in jeopardy to fall quickly, whether the Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC gets there first remains the question. To this point, the SEC has build up a good margin based on non-conference results which will serve well on Selection Sunday.

Check out the latest bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament, where the SEC has started to separate itself from the rest of college basketball.

Bracketology

All projections are based on data through Dec. 17.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Tennessee, Duke, Iowa State
Last four byes: St. Mary’s, BYU, Georgia, Missouri
Last four in: SDSU, Ohio State, Penn State, Arizona State
First four out: Nebraska, SMU, Indiana, San Francisco

First Four (Dayton)

16 Quinnipiac (MAAC) vs. 16 Loyola (MD) (Patriot)
16 Longwood (Big South) vs. 16 Alabama A&M (OVC)
11 Georgia vs. 11 Michigan
11 Louisville vs. 11 SDSU

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
8 Texas Tech vs. 9 Creighton
Denver
5 Texas A&M vs. 12 McNeese (Southland)
4 UCLA vs. 13 Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
Denver
6 Mississippi State vs. 11 SDSU/Ohio State
3 Houston vs. 14 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
Cleveland
7 Pittsburgh vs. 10 BYU
2 Kentucky vs. 15 North Florida (ASUN)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn remains the top overall seed in this updated bracketology, thanks to strong analytic numbers backed up by on-court performances against the best teams in college basketball so far. The Tigers have everything needed to compete deep into the postseason.

2-seed Kentucky

Kentucky holds steady on the 2-seed line thanks to their sustained success in the non-conference portion of the schedule. Year One under Mark Pope has turned into a great college basketball story already as the analytic models fall in love with the Wildcats.

West (San Francisco)

Wichita
1 Iowa State (Big 12) vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
8 Wisconsin vs. 9 Texas
Seattle
5 Michigan State vs. 12 UC-Irvine (Big West)
4 Oregon vs. 13 Grand Canyon (WAC)
Providence
6 Ole Miss vs. 11 Penn State/Arizona State
3 Marquette (Big East) vs. 14 Akron (MAC)
Seattle
7 Oklahoma vs. 10 Utah State
2 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 15 Milwaukee (Horizon)

1-seed Iowa State

Iowa State continues in its role as the quiet but dominant force in college basketball. The Cyclones move onto the 1-seed line in this updated bracketology as they sit atop of Big 12 through the non-conference slate.

2-seed Gonzaga

Looking dominant at times while struggling in others, Gonzaga has not found the perfect start but offered themselves plenty cushion by taking on a challenging non-conference schedule which has paid off in multiple ways already.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Raleigh
1 Tennessee vs. 16 Longwood/Little Rock
8 North Carolina vs. 9 Arizona
Milwaukee
5 Purdue vs. 12 Drake (MVC)
4 Baylor vs. 13 Arkansas State (SBC)
Wichita
6 Clemson vs. 11 Georgia
3 Kansas vs. 14 South Dakota State (Summit)
Cleveland
7 Michigan vs. 10 St. Mary’s
2 Alabama vs. 15 UMass Lowell (AEC)

1-seed Tennessee

While they remain on the 1-seed line, Tennessee is the teams with the best case to eventually unseat Auburn thanks to dominant wins all the way through the non-conference schedule. The strength of their opponents still leaves room for growth in the SEC slate.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama has suffered some early losses while playing one of the toughest schedules in college basketball to this point, but the analytic models still favor them. The Crimson Tide now get reinforcements from within with hopes of hitting their stride on the way into SEC play.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Quinnipiac/Loyola (MD)
8 Arkansas vs. 9 St. John’s
Milwaukee
5 Memphis vs. 12 Samford (SoCon)
4 Illinois vs. 13 Columbia (Ivy)
Providence
6 Maryland vs. 11 Missouri
3 UConn vs. 14 Charleston (CAA)
Lexington
7 Cincinnati vs. 10 Dayton (A10)
2 Florida vs. 15 Central Connecticut State (NEC)

1-seed Duke

Duke picked up the signature win everyone was looking for against Auburn, shooting them up the board in many analytics while providing them the clear best win in college basketball to this point. The promise of further improvement by the freshman class provides a high ceiling.

2-seed Florida

Florida moves onto the 2-seed line in this updated bracketology as the trajectory for this season continues to point up. The Gators have dominated opponents throughout the non-conference schedule and now looking to carry that momentum toward SEC play.