2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch sees pivotal shifts

With March right around the corner, the emphasis placed on the NCAA Tournament bubble picture continues to increase. The number of teams has started to dwindle, but the competition for the final spots is as fierce as ever.

Every team’s position has started to solidify, but some teams safely in the field remain just one bad week away from the bubble conversation. Likewise, some bubble teams can still feel good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture with a quality win.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2025 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

North Carolina (44)

After dropping all the way to the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, North Carolina has found a new run of form. The team has new life and a four-game win streak to back it up, even if three land in Quad 3 for now.

On a relatively weak bubble, that is enough to swing things back in favor of the Tar Heels as they return to the right side of things. The ACC Tournament will be a place where many teams are looking to sneak into the field, making it more important than ever to make a deep run.

Oregon (32)

Oregon has slowly drifted toward the bubble throughout Big Ten play, given them a slimmer path toward the NCAA Tournament with each loss. However, a big road win over Wisconsin in OT followed up three other conference wins to move things back in the right direction.

The Ducks now have more than enough gap between them and the bubble to make the field, still holding opportunities to strengthen their position at the end of the regular season and into the conference tournament.

VCU (29)

VCU had slowly made its way onto the bubble as a mid-major contender even while second in the A-10 standings for much of the season. That all changed when they picked up a win over George Mason to move into a projected automatic bid, plus gave them a solid win for the resume which could help the at-large resume too.

The seven-game win streak has the Rams on the rise across computer numbers as well, even without resume-building opportunities left in the regular season. The conference tournament will certainly prove pivotal as they look to solidify the case.

Stock Down

Wake Forest (64)

Wake Forest spent most of the ACC schedule attempting to overcome low computer numbers which held down their NCAA Tournament resume despite a strong enough resume to land on the bubble. After reaching the right side, they took a big loss against NC State.

The damage done to the resume this late in the season could prove difficult to overcome in the weakened conference, but opportunities will certainly arise between the end of the regular season and the ACC tournament.

Ohio State (35)

Ohio State held solid computer numbers which suggest them as a relative lock for the NCAA Tournament, however the overall record has not matched up. A loss against Northwestern severely damaged the case and a follow-up loss to UCLA further pointed out the issue as they creep toward .500 overall.

The Buckeyes simply cannot afford to take many more losses this season, and they face two more Big Ten bubble contenders to close the regular season. From there, even if one loss is all that is possible in the conference tournament, getting enough wins to creep away from .500 is key.

Nebraska (53)

Nebraska had a good case to land on the right side of the bubble through most of February, but struggles in the Big Ten schedule have left them clinging to a spot in the NCAA Tournament picture over the final weeks of the season.

The Cornhuskers look to bounce back from losses to Penn State and Michigan, facing three more games to close the regular season before a chance to build the resume over the final days before Selection Sunday.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (23), Duke (1), Louisville (27)
On the bubble: North Carolina (44), SMU (41), Wake Forest (64)
More to do: Pittsburgh (58)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (9), BYU (28), Houston (3), Iowa State (10), Kansas (20), Texas Tech (7)
On the bubble: Baylor (31), West Virginia (45)
More to do: Cincinnati (46)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (22), Maryland (13), Michigan (21), Michigan State (15), Oregon (32), Purdue (19), UCLA (26), Wisconsin (11)
On the bubble: Indiana (56), Nebraska (53), Ohio State (35)
More to do: N/A

SEC
In the field: Alabama (6), Auburn (2), Florida (4), Kentucky (14), Mississippi State (30), Missouri (12), Ole Miss (25), Tennessee (5), Texas A&M (17)
On the bubble: Arkansas (40), Georgia (36), Oklahoma (51), Texas (39), Vanderbilt (43)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Creighton (34), Marquette (24), St. John’s (18)
On the bubble: UConn (38)
More to do: Xavier (52)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (8), Memphis (48), St. Mary’s (16)
On the bubble: New Mexico (42), SDSU (49), UC San Diego (37), Utah State (33), VCU (29)
More to do: Boise State (47), George Mason (65), San Francisco (62)