2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch features big movers on long streaks

The NCAA Tournament bubble has started to solidify in terms of the names mentioned, with a strong base of contenders for the final spots in the field of 68. However, the movement within that group is as volatile as ever, with each results changing the projection.

Every team’s position at this point is extremely fluid, with some teams safely in the field just one bad week away from the wrong side of the bubble conversation. Likewise, plenty bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2025 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

UCLA (26)

UCLA makes a rare second appearance in a row, seeing the Stock Up section again this week. The Bruins are now on a six game win streak after a mid-January skid, with the two most recent victories coming against ranked opponents in the Big Ten.

The Bruins have fully rebounded from their struggles early in conference play, justifying the rant of Mick Cronin and setting them up as a Big Ten contender. They now look to close strong and move out of bubble conversations for good.

Creighton (35)

Creighton has also slowly put together an impressive resume in the Big East, bouncing back from a cold spell by winning seven in a row and nine of the last 10. The only loss over that stretch came on the road against Marquette, meaning it had minimal negative impact as the rise continues.

The month of February provides many opportunities for the Bluejays to either rise above the NCAA Tournament bubble all together or fall back toward the cut line with big games throughout the coming weeks.

New Mexico (46)

New Mexico has built one of the best mid-major resumes in the country, and made a definitive statement over the weekend with a blowout win vs. Mountain West favorite Utah State. The Lobos assert themselves atop the conference standings and strengthen their at-large resume.

The coming month provides a rematch opportunity against Utah State, as well as games against the other NCAA Tournament hopefuls within the conference. Maintaining separation atop the standings and picking up head-to-head bubble victories will prove vital in March.

Stock Down

Georgia (32)

Georgia used the non-conference schedule to build a resume worthy of NCAA Tournament contention, knowing that SEC play would present challenges. However, with five losses in the past six – and the only win against South Carolina – the Bulldogs need to find footing.

They currently remain on the right side of the bubble with a chance to play at home against LSU next, but in a conference with no certain wins a quick turnaround and string of results is needed.

UCF (63)

After climbing onto the bubble thanks to the on-paper results more than the computer numbers, UCF has since gone cold. Four losses in the past five, with the only win coming against TCU have them searching for a turn of fate.

Upcoming matchups against fellow bubble teams in the Big 12 give UCF a quick chance to turn things around and improve the overall resume in the process.

North Texas (58)

North Texas never found the right side of the bubble, but had firmly entered the mix of mid-major teams with a resume too good to fully ignore. In fact, they came close to featuring in the Stock Up category one week ago.

Since then, consecutive losses in the weak AAC have knocked them out of the bubble conversation entirely, leaving the conference tournament as their only realistic path to the postseason.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (33), Duke (2), Louisville (29)
On the bubble: North Carolina (43), Pittsburgh (45), SMU (40), Wake Forest (68)
More to do: N/A

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (9), Baylor (28), Houston (3), Iowa State (11), Kansas (8), Texas Tech (7)
On the bubble: BYU (34), Cincinnati (53), UCF (63), West Virginia (39)
More to do: Arizona State (61)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (12), Maryland (15), Michigan (17), Michigan State (20), Purdue (10), UCLA (26), Wisconsin (16)
On the bubble: Nebraska (50), Ohio State (27), Oregon (36)
More to do: Indiana (64), Iowa (65), Northwestern (54), Penn State (62), USC (67)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (6), Auburn (1), Florida (5), Kentucky (24), Mississippi State (30), Missouri (19), Ole Miss (21), Tennessee (4), Texas (25), Texas A&M (14)
On the bubble: Arkansas (47), Georgia (32), Oklahoma (38), Vanderbilt (44)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Creighton (35), Marquette (18), St. John’s (23), UConn (31)
On the bubble: N/A
More to do: Xavier (51)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (13), Memphis (42), St. Mary’s (22)
On the bubble: New Mexico (46), SDSU (49), Utah State (41), VCU (37)
More to do: Boise State (48), Drake (56), UC Irvine (55), UC San Diego (52)