2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch narrows down in final week of regular season

As the calendar flips to March, the NCAA Tournament field continues to take shape with only a couple games left for the bubble candidates to solidify their spot or fall out of the running. Each result takes on bigger meaning as every day passes.

The position of many teams continues to solidify, as the bubble conversation quickly narrows down to the realistic cases. At the same time, both bubble teams and those too far off now focus on a deep conference tournament run which could provide them a final hope to land on the right side of things.

For now, teams in the conversation for a 9-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 10-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the First Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2025 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

North Carolina (38)

After finding itself on the wrong side of the bubble for a long stretch during the conference schedule, North Carolina has now strung together enough wins to vault them back onto the right side of things while watching rivals continue to take losses. Wins against Miami and Virginia Tech do not impress, but also do not hurt.

The case for the Tar Heels rests largely on the new form they have found, as well as struggles from seemingly all the teams around them on the NCAA Tournament bubble entering conference tournaments.

Boise State (45)

Boise State has rested on the More To Do category for most of the conference schedule, but is quickly moving up the bubble watch category and even into the field based on the most recent bracketology update. Recent wins over New Mexico and Utah State have built the case.

The Broncos finish the regular season against Colorado State, another chance for a resume-building win before a good run through the Mountain West Conference tournament is needed to seal the deal.

Xavier (49)

Xavier has quietly continued to find its best form at the right time of year, stringing together a five-game win streak through the Big East schedule. A blowout win over Creighton further placed them in the category of teams with a strong case for an NCAA Tournament spot.

The Musketeers have Butler and Providence left on the regular season slate, before they attempt to make a deep Big East run which would certainly move them onto the right side of the bubble given the run of form.

Stock Down

Wake Forest (70)

Wake Forest continues to see its NCAA Tournament resume fall apart down the stretch, as the poor computer numbers now meet dropped games in the weak ACC schedule. A loss against Virginia on Wednesday, a close call against Notre Dame and a blowout against Duke leave few chances to build back toward the top.

The regular season finale against Georgia Tech is a must-win for the Demon Deacons as they hope to make a deep run in the conference tournament. With the opportunity for more wins than other bubble teams, hope is not fully gone.

Nebraska (57)

Nebraska had already suffered a fall from the projected NCAA Tournament field, and now struggles to hold onto its spot among bubble teams with a legitimate chance to move up. A home loss against Minnesota will hurt, and a loss against Ohio State only sends them further from the cut line.

The Cornhuskers have one more regular season matchup vs. Iowa on deck, but the true test will come in the Big Ten Tournament where more Quad 1 opportunities could help bring them back into the mix.

Villanova (53)

Villanova was far enough on the peripheral of the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation entering the final week of the regular season that they likely could not afford another loss until deep in the Big East tournament. Instead, they lost to Georgetown.

That loss dashes the hopes the Wildcats can salvage the season, leading them to another disappointing season without a trip to the big dance. Of course, barring a magical run in the conference tournament on the way to an automatic bid.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (22), Duke (1), Louisville (25)
On the bubble: North Carolina (38)
More to do: SMU (46), Wake Forest (70)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (10), BYU (24), Houston (3), Iowa State (9), Kansas (21), Texas Tech (7)
On the bubble: Baylor (31), Cincinnati (42), West Virginia (48)
More to do: N/A

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (17), Maryland (13), Michigan (27), Michigan State (11), Oregon (30), Purdue (16), UCLA (26), Wisconsin (14)
On the bubble: Indiana (55), Ohio State (36)
More to do: Nebraska (57)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (6), Auburn (2), Florida (4), Kentucky (12), Mississippi State (33), Missouri (15), Ole Miss (28), Tennessee (5), Texas A&M (20), Vanderbilt (43)
On the bubble: Arkansas (39), Georgia (32), Oklahoma (50), Texas (41)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Creighton (37), Marquette (23), St. John’s (19), UConn (34)
On the bubble: Xavier (49)
More to do: N/A

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (8), Memphis (47), New Mexico (44), St. Mary’s (18), Utah State (40)
On the bubble: Boise State (45), SDSU (52), UC San Diego (35), VCU (29)
More to do: Colorado State (56)