2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch narrows in conference tournament week

The NCAA Tournament bubble continues to take shape, with as few teams in the running for a spot in the field as we have seen all season, given the number of opportunities left during conference tournament week. Each result takes on bigger meaning as every day passes.

The position of many teams continues to solidify, as the bubble conversation quickly narrows down to the realistic cases. At the same time, both bubble teams and those too far off now focus on a deep conference tournament run which could provide them a final hope to land on the right side of things.

For now, teams in the conversation for a 9-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 10-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the First Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2025 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down. Below is a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

Oklahoma (47)

Oklahoma did plenty to right the ship which saw them on the wrong side of the bubble in recent weeks, first picking up a big win against Missouri to help raise their Quad 1 resume. They then picked up another Q1 win, knocking off Texas in a matchup which had even more meaning as it booted the Longhorns to the other side of the bubble.

The Sooners are currently on the right side of things, without much margin for error. However, thanks to the strength of the SEC, they are also one tournament win against Georgia from likely locking in their spot in the field.

Indiana (52)

Indiana moved to the right side of the bubble, picking up a pivotal win against Ohio State over the weekend. The game had twice the impact, with the Buckeyes also firmly on the edge of making the NCAA Tournament with just a few opportunities left to build the resume.

The Hoosiers are not yet safe, with the potential for bid-stealers and more Q1 wins by bubble rivals on the table. They must match the success of those around them to feel safe, starting with a matchup against Oregon.

Colorado State (54)

Colorado State has slowly climbed into the fringe bubble mix, somewhere near the More To Do category as teams around them drop opportunities. Meanwhile, they ride a seven-game win streak which features multiple wins over other Mountain West bubble contenders.

The Rams are among the most interesting teams to watch on conference tournament week, with resume-building opportunities ahead. They also have enough momentum to leave bid-stealing potential on the table regardless of where they land in bracketology.

Stock Down

Texas (42)

Texas dropped a golden opportunity to asset itself as a likely NCAA Tournament team, losing the regular season finale to rival Oklahoma. The loss hurt even more when it moved the Sooners up into the projected field, providing another obstacle to overcome in conference tournament week.

The Longhorns likely need to win at least a couple game in the SEC Tournament to change the narrative on them, starting with a matchup against Vanderbilt. Between potential bid-stealers and other bubble teams with a chance to build their resume, it will not feel safe to the end.

Ohio State (37)

Ohio State had an opportunity to close the regular season with a win and assert themselves as a likely NCAA Tournament team, but dropped a game against Indiana. The loss not only dragged them further into the bubble conversation with little margin for error, but provided the Hoosiers with a chance to pass them.

The Buckeyes have work to do in the Big Ten Tournament, especially since they failed to secure a first-round bye. They face Iowa, needing to win at least that game to keep them on the right side of things.

SMU (50)

SMU was likely going to need help and a good ACC Tournament run to make the March Madness field given their lack of Q1 wins on the resume. The chances faded to near nothing with a loss against Florida State in the regular season finale, leaving a run to the conference title game the only likely path to rejoin the bubble mix.

The Mustangs journey to saving their season starts on Wednesday, when they face XXX before getting to potential resume-building games in future rounds. It remains to be seen if the conference even has enough opportunities to help them rise.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (22), Duke (1), Louisville (23)
On the bubble: North Carolina (40)
More to do: SMU (50), Wake Forest (68)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (10), BYU (26), Houston (3), Iowa State (9), Kansas (18), Texas Tech (7)
On the bubble: Baylor (33), West Virginia (46)
More to do: Cincinnati (48)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (15), Maryland (11), Michigan (28), Michigan State (10), Oregon (29), Purdue (14), UCLA (24), Wisconsin (19)
On the bubble: Indiana (52), Ohio State (37)
More to do: N/A

SEC
In the field: Alabama (6), Arkansas (38), Auburn (2), Florida (4), Georgia (31), Kentucky (12), Mississippi State (34), Missouri (20), Ole Miss (27), Tennessee (5), Texas A&M (17), Vanderbilt (43)
On the bubble: Oklahoma (47), Texas (42)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Creighton (38), Marquette (25), St. John’s (16), UConn (30)
On the bubble: Xavier (44)
More to do: Villanova (53)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (8), Memphis (49), New Mexico (41), St. Mary’s (21)
On the bubble: Boise State (45), SDSU (51), UC San Diego (35), Utah State (36), VCU (32)
More to do: Colorado State (54), Dayton (67), UC Irvine (62)