2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch sees stock up, stock down candidates change outlook

After the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee revealed the Top 16 overall seeds as things stand, the picks immediately set the tone for the rest of the field. From what the group values to what disqualifies a team, the hints dropped trickle all the way to the bubble.

Every team’s position has started to solidify, but some teams safely in the field remain just one bad week away from the bubble conversation. Likewise, plenty bubble teams can still feel good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture with a quality win.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2025 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

BYU (31)

BYU has hung onto the bubble picture through much of conference play to this point. Now, a three-game win streak against two other fringe NCAA Tournament contenders and a blowout against Kansas, have put them in a great spot.

The Cougars now look to end the season strong, setting them up for a less stressful Selection Sunday. The finish to Big 12 play will not be easy, but also provides further opportunities to rise.

New Mexico (37)

New Mexico has held the top spot in the Mountain West standings for much of the conference slate, first earning an automatic big projection into the NCAA Tournament, then building their at-large resume into a bracketology worthy case. Two wins over Utah State and an eight-game win streak have them well on the right side of things now.

With two more challenging matchups against bubble teams ahead, the Lobos can lock themselves into the field regardless of the championship status or find themselves in a fight to assert their resume against others in the conference and across the country.

UC San Diego (41)

UC San Diego has been the quiet darling of analytic models all season, putting them just off the bubble conversation for a long time before fall-off from others helped the case. After splitting the regular-season series with fellow Big West contender UC Irvine, they now serve as an artificial backstop for the chasing teams.

The Big West is not a traditional two-big league, meaning the Tritons cannot let their foot off the gas all the way through the conference tournament. However, their presence on the bubble at all speaks volumes to the work they have accomplished this season.

Stock Down

Oklahoma (53)

Oklahoma started the conference slate with a massive headstart on the field, but has lost all the ground it gained during a difficult conference run with multiple long losing streaks since January broken up with just three wins in 13 tries. The cushion is now gone as the Sooners struggle to survive on the bubble.

There is no give in the schedule to aid their attempt, with four ranked matchups leading into a rivalry game on the road against Texas. The Sooners must find a way to win at least a couple more games if they want to go dancing in March, with no easy path through the SEC Tournament either.

Georgia (39)

Georgia now sits at 4-9 in SEC play after losing just one non-conference game. The strength of the conference could be enough to hold them in the field, but they must get off a recent losing streak quickly and work to rebuild their computer metrics along the way.

Auburn and Florida come next on the schedule, not making anything easier. However, late games against Texas, South Carolina and Vanderbilt could serve as important chances to build momentum heading into the postseason fight to land in the field of 68.

USC (65)

USC built back from tough moments throughout the season to garner bubble talk, but let it slip away with recent losses against Northwestern and Minnesota haunting the resume. Head coach Eric Musselman even admitted after the latter that his team is not in the mix for an NCAA Tournament bid right now.

The Trojans are not out of resume-building opportunities yet, but could need a perfect — or very close to it — run through the end of the regular season and early stages of the Big Ten conference tournament to make any sort of case.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (25), Duke (2), Louisville (27)
On the bubble: North Carolina (50), Pittsburgh (51), SMU (40), Wake Forest (58)
More to do: N/A

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (9), Baylor (30), Houston (3), Iowa State (8), Kansas (21), Texas Tech (7)
On the bubble: BYU (31), West Virginia (44)
More to do: Cincinnati (45)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (20), Maryland (12), Michigan (17), Michigan State (19), Oregon (33), Purdue (13), UCLA (28), Wisconsin (10)
On the bubble: Nebraska (46), Ohio State (29)
More to do: Indiana (57)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (6), Auburn (1), Florida (4), Kentucky (14), Mississippi State (26), Missouri (15), Ole Miss (24), Tennessee (5), Texas (32), Texas A&M (16)
On the bubble: Arkansas (43), Georgia (39), Oklahoma (53), Vanderbilt (42)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Creighton (34), Marquette (23), St. John’s (22)
On the bubble: UConn (36)
More to do: Xavier (52)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (11), Memphis (49), St. Mary’s (18)
On the bubble: New Mexico (37), SDSU (48), UC San Diego (41), Utah State (38), VCU (35)
More to do: Boise State (47), Drake (59), San Francisco (60), UC Irvine (61)