2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch sees team capitalize on big opportunities

The NCAA Tournament bubble makes another shift as teams across the country face off against each other in conference play. As Archie Miller was sure to point out in his press conference, even the SEC has a .500 record since it started.

Every team’s position at this point is extremely fluid, with some teams safely in the field just one bad week away from the wrong side of the bubble conversation. Likewise, plenty bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2025 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

Texas (32)

After starting the SEC conference schedule on a losing streak, Texas has rebounded with three-straight wins against competition which raises their stock on the bubble. By defeating rivals Oklahoma and Texas A&M, along with projected NCAA Tournament team Missouri, they have improved the computer numbers across the board.

The Longhorns now look to carry this momentum into the next month, where they continue to face Quad 1 and Quad 2 opportunities across the board.

UCLA (33)

After a handful of Mick Cronin rants put UCLA under pressure to perform, the Bruins have done just that. The team has rattled off four-straight wins against Big Ten opposition including multiple bubble matchups which help the resume.

Perhaps most importantly, Cronin has expressed more confidence in his group. That confidence can now carry into more big games to come.

Xavier (54)

With a big run of games against the top of the Big East, Xavier took away wins against Marquette and UConn, while taking St. John’s to overtime in a loss. The results saw them move up the board with computers, and pushed them onto the bubble.

After suffering a slide early in the month, the good run of results is just the start for the Musketeers. They must now string together consistent results against the rest of the conference to find the right side of the bubble.

Stock Down

North Carolina (42)

North Carolina has failed to impress in recent weeks, with losses against Stanford and Wake Forest setting them back before an unconvincing overtime win against Boston College. A loss against Pittsburgh only complicates the position they find themselves in now.

The Tar Heels must find consistency fast, with a weak ACC not providing the number of opportunities it might have in the past. A matchup against rival Duke is a big chance they need to capitalize on.

UConn (37)

UConn continues to struggle finding the form it had over the past two season – which made them the back-to-back national champions. Recent losses another Creighton and Xavier, and a close call against Butler, have hurt the computer numbers in a major way.

While injuries have impacted the Huskies, they must turn things around in the coming weeks against the top of the conference if they want a realistic chance at the three-peat.

Penn State (50)

After emerging as an NCAA Tournament bubble contender in the past month, Penn State has lost all ground with four losses in the past five games. They now sit outside the conversation with a long gap to close in the next month.

The Nittany Lions have enough opportunities to build their resume back into the mix, but it will require multiple results against the top of the Big Ten, along with consistency to build computer numbers.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (30), Duke (3), Louisville (25)
On the bubble: North Carolina (42), Pittsburgh (34), SMU (43)
More to do: Wake Forest (71)

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (13), Baylor (29), Houston (2), Iowa State (6), Kansas (8), Texas Tech (14)
On the bubble: Arizona State (58), BYU (36), Cincinnati (51), UCF (62), West Virginia (41)
More to do: N/A

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (10), Maryland (19), Michigan (20), Michigan State (17), Oregon (27), Purdue (9), Wisconsin (18)
On the bubble: Northwestern (48), Ohio State (28), UCLA (33)
More to do: Indiana (68), Iowa (65), Nebraska (64), Penn State (50)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (7), Auburn (1), Florida (5), Kentucky (12), Mississippi State (22), Missouri (26), Ole Miss (21), Tennessee (4), Texas (32), Texas A&M (16)
On the bubble: Arkansas (56), Georgia (35), Oklahoma (46), Vanderbilt (38)
More to do: LSU (67)

Big East
In the field: Marquette (15), St. John’s (23), UConn (37)
On the bubble: Creighton (39), Xavier (54)
More to do: Villanova (60)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (11), Memphis (40), St. Mary’s (24), Utah State (31)
On the bubble: New Mexico (55), North Texas (45), SDSU (44)
More to do: Bradley (63), Drake (66), UC Irvine (49), VCU (47), UC San Diego (53)