2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Bubble watch with stock up, stock down candidates

The race to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble continues to rage on, with some teams seeing their stock sky-rocket while others plummet out of the picture entirely. As the number of resume-building opportunities continues to shrink, each game becomes more important.

Every team’s position at this point is extremely fluid, with some teams safely in the field just one bad week away from the wrong side of the bubble conversation. Likewise, plenty bubble teams are one big week from feeling good about themselves in the NCAA Tournament picture, as they showed recently.

For now, teams in the conversation for an 8-seed or better are generally considered safe, while teams just below on the 9-line are likely safe but cannot breathe a sigh of relief just yet. Those below the Next Four Out category still have more to do.

Read the most recent version of On3’s 2025 Bracketology here.

Here are the teams who have seen their stock go up and down, as well as a conference-by-conference breakdown of the teams currently in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Stock Up

Clemson (XX)

Clemson has now won eight of the past nine games, with a 3OT loss the only thing standing between them and college basketball’s longest high-major win streak. Wins over Duke and North Carolina do as much for the resume to climb above the bubble as any single week this season.

The Tigers now face the challenge of dodging bullets through the final weeks of ACC play, although their overall record and positive wins on the resume provide them a nice cushion and plenty breathing room as a starting point.

Wake Forest (XX)

Wake Forest continues to overcome some lagging computer numbers by winning games. With a three-game win streak to start the month and no bad losses weighing the resume down, continued success promises to increase the chances they find the right side of the bubble.

The challenge ahead for the Demon Deacons is simple, keep winning. Regardless of the current resume and comparison with other bubble teams, those wins promise to lift the underlying numbers to a place which more closely match the record and resume.

Nebraska (XX)

Nebraska suffered a major skid in January, but has bounced back strong to start the new month. In an attempt to stop downward momentum and preserve their spot on the right side of the bubble, they have rattled off a four-game win streak with two ranked wins.

The Cornhuskers will face several more resume-building opportunities in the Big Ten before Selection Sunday, but the most important task will be winning against fellow bubble teams looking to create a head-to-head advantage.

Stock Down

Oregon (XX)

After soaring toward the top of college basketball in the non-conference schedule, Oregon has hit multiple speed bumps which have culminated in a five-game losing streak in the Big Ten. That has cost them all their bracketology good will, leaving the too close to the bubble.

The Ducks must find their footing quickly as the season threatens to slip away along with the NCAA Tournament seeding. Games against conference opponents on the bubble could prove pivotal on Selection Sunday.

Indiana (XX)

Arizona State has found itself in the bubble conversation for most of the season, with results important to the future not only this season but beyond. Three losses in a row have cost them, leaving little chance to emerge on the right side of things regardless of results the rest of the way.

The Sun Devils face a challenging path ahead with a record barely over .500 and multiple Top 10 matchups left to play in the already tough Big 12. The conference tournament could be the only hope left.

Pittsburgh (XX)

Pittsburgh continues to slide down the board in the ACC, which already has very few positive opportunities on the table as NCAA Tournament resumes go. A four-game losing streak now has them scrambling to stay relevant at all.

The Panthers path to the bubble has become increasingly narrow, but a run of ACC games against the bottom of the conference offers them one last chance to get hot and make a run toward postseason berth.

Conference breakdown

Note: All teams listed with current NET Ranking within ().

ACC
In the field: Clemson (27), Duke (2), Louisville (29)
On the bubble: North Carolina (50), Pittsburgh (51), SMU (36), Wake Forest (60)
More to do: N/A

Big 12
In the field: Arizona (10), Baylor (26), Houston (3), Iowa State (7), Kansas (11), Texas Tech (8)
On the bubble: BYU (40), West Virginia (43)
More to do: Cincinnati (48)

Big Ten
In the field: Illinois (13), Maryland (18), Michigan (17), Michigan State (23), Purdue (9), UCLA (25), Wisconsin (16)
On the bubble: Nebraska (47), Ohio State (28), Oregon (34)
More to do: Indiana (56), Iowa (67), USC (62)

SEC
In the field: Alabama (6), Auburn (1), Florida (4), Kentucky (15), Mississippi State (30), Missouri (22), Ole Miss (21), Tennessee (5), Texas A&M (12)
On the bubble: Arkansas (41), Georgia (35), Oklahoma (44), Texas (33), Vanderbilt (42)
More to do: N/A

Big East
In the field: Creighton (32), Marquette (24), St. John’s (20), UConn (31)
On the bubble: N/A
More to do: Xavier (55), Villanova (52)

Others
In the field: Gonzaga (14), Memphis (45), St. Mary’s (19)
On the bubble: Boise State (46), Drake (57), New Mexico (37), SDSU (53), Utah State (39), VCU (38)
More to do: San Francisco (61), UC Irvine (63), UC San Diego (49)