2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: ESPN's Bracketology updated after Wednesday games

Wednesday night saw one team in the top five and three in the Top 15 lose, while there were several other important results over the 31-game schedule with regular season and conference tournament games throughout. With that, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released an updated look at his seeding, at the top and bottom of the bracket, for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

The biggest shift was on the No. 1 line, with Florida taking Tennessee’s spot as the last of the No. 1 seeds. That’s after the Gators won 99-94 at Alabama in a top-ten matchup while Tennessee, who fell to the first of the No. 2 seeds, was upset at 78-76 at Ole Miss. Other notable results were a 71-65 win for Maryland at Michigan to move into being a top-four seed in the field while, on the bubble, Xavier won 91-78 at Butler to become the Last Team In and Oklahoma won 96-84 over Missouri to become the First Team Out.

The SEC remains the top conference in the tournament with a dozen berths currently but with two teams on the right and two on the wrong side of the bubble. The Big Ten is in a similar spot in second with 10 in, two out and one out on the bubble. Then, from there, the Big 12 has eight, the Big East has five now, the Mountain West has four, the ACC has just three with a trio just outside the field, and the WCC has a pair.

As we grow closer to the release of the bracket, the projections become more important. Here’s how Lunardi seeded the NCAA Tournament per his update on Twitter this morning:

South Region

No. 1 Auburn Tigers
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans
No. 3 St. John’s Red Storm
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats

Despite losing on Tuesday, Auburn remains the No. 1 overall seed in the bracket at 27-3 overall and 15-2 as the top team in the SEC. This region could also include four champions from their respective conference tournament with Auburn, Michigan State, who plays tonight at Iowa, and St. John’s all as No. 1 seeds in their leagues while Arizona is among the best in the Big 12.

East Region

No. 1 Duke Blue Devils
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins

Duke also remained as the second of the No. 1 seeds at 27-3 overall and a game away, this weekend on Tobacco Road, from clinching the ACC. Alabama losing their second straight and four of six, with a chance of that reaching three straight and five of seven this weekend, has them on the two-line while Iowa State is down here too as a three after losing three of four. The Terps then projected up after last night’s victory as winners of six of seven with the lone loss being by a half-court buzzer-beater from the Spartans.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Houston Cougars
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers
No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers

Houston, the top team in the Big 12, is the third of the No. 1 seeds after moving to 26-4 overall as the Cougars have won 22 of their last 23 with the lone loss coming by one in overtime. Tennessee, the first of the No. 2 seeds, then slipped here following last night’s loss in Oxford. From there, Texas A&M is the No. 3 after breaking a four-game losing streak by winning over Auburn while Purdue is the No. 4 after winning two straight to make up for four straight losses

West Region

No. 1 Florida Gators
No. 2 Texas Tech Red Raiders
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers
No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats

With another win to move to 26-4 overall and clinch second place in the SEC, Florida has moved back up to be the last of the No. 1 seeds in the bracket. The West Region would then include three other dangerous teams in their own rights with Texas Tech out of the Big 12, Wisconsin out of the Big Ten, and then Kentucky out of the SEC.

Bubble

Last Four Byes: Utah State, Georgia, Ohio State, Arkansas
Last Four In: San Diego State, Indiana, Boise State, Xavier
First Four Out: Oklahoma, North Carolina, Texas, Nebraska
Next Four Out: Colorado State, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, SMU
Next: Northwestern, Villanova, Santa Clara, San Francisco

Considering the amount of teams they have in the field, the bubble currently matters the most to the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC. The Southeastern Conference has Georgia and Arkansas up to the Last Four Byes but while Oklahoma and Texas are among the First Four Out – with this weekend’s game between the two in Austin likely being a play-in game for one or the other.

The Big Ten then has Ohio State, Indiana, and Nebraska trying to position themselves too. Finally, the ACC has a three just on the outside looking in with North Carolina as the Second Team Out and Wake Forest and SMU among the Next Four Out. The Mountain West is also noteworthy with Utah State, San Diego State, and Boise State all hanging on to at-large berths with Colorado State trying to play their way in from the Next Four Out.