2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Final Bracketology projections on Selection Sunday

Selection Sunday has finally arrived, and the NCAA Tournament field will be announced in a number of hours, leaving a short time left until bracketology gives way to a bracket. With the majority of the 68 teams locked in with full resumes, here is a look at the final projections for who is in vs. out.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season, while accounting for other factors which impact the final bracket.

As the final automatic bids are locked in, the selection committee is breaking down the resumes of the bubble teams one last time. Check out the final bracketology projections for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketology

Bracket will be updated after each round of games.

All projections are based on data through Mar. 15.
Projected 1-line: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida
Last four byes: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Utah State, Vanderbilt
Last four in: West Virginia, SDSU, North Carolina, Texas
First four out: Xavier, Indiana, Boise State, Ohio State

First Four (Dayton)

16 AMERICAN (Patriot) vs. 16 MOUNT ST. MARY’S (MAAC)
16 ALABAMA STATE (SWAC) vs. 16 ST. FRANCIS PA (NEC)
11 West Virginia vs. 11 SDSU
12 North Carolina vs. 12 Texas

South (Atlanta)

Lexington
1 Auburn (SEC) vs. 16 ALABAMA STATE/ST. FRANCIS PA
8 Memphis (AAC) vs. 9 Baylor
Providence
5 BYU vs. 12 MCNEESE (Southland)
4 Maryland vs. 13 Yale (Ivy)
Denver
6 GONZAGA (WCC) vs. 11 Vanderbilt
3 Iowa State vs. 14 WOFFORD (SoCon)
Cleveland
7 Kansas vs. 10 Arkansas
2 Michigan State vs. 15 MONTANA (Big Sky)

1-seed Auburn

Auburn projects to hold onto the No. 1 overall seed despite falling in the SEC Tournament and dropping three of the final four games. The Tigers built up a massive gap between themselves and the field, and tested it to the end but held on.

2-seed Michigan State

Michigan State holds steady on the 2-line, where they will land on Selection Sunday. After building up their resume, the Spartans created separation from the group behind them even if they were unable to climb closer to the 1-seed discussion.

West (San Francisco)

Raleigh
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
8 Creighton vs. 9 COLORADO STATE (MWC)
Denver
5 Purdue vs. 12 North Carolina/Texas
4 Arizona vs. 13 HIGH POINT (Big South)
Wichita
6 Missouri vs. 11 UC SAN DIEGO (Big West)
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 TROY (SBC)
Providence
7 Illinois vs. 10 Oklahoma
2 ST. JOHN’S (Big East) vs. 15 BRYANT (AEC)

1-seed Florida

Florida looks likely to hold onto the final 1-seed position on Selection Sunday, regardless of the SEC Tournament championship result. The Gators cannot rely on that though, with the final data point sure to at least result in a selection committee conversation before the bracket is locked.

2-seed St. John’s

After missing out on the bubble last season, St. John’s left no doubt as Big East champions with the best case to claim the final 2-seed spot on Selection Sunday. The solid overall record has the Red Storm among the best in college basketball and the bracket should reflect that.

East (Newark)

Raleigh
1 DUKE (ACC) vs. 16 AMERICAN/MOUNT ST. MARY’S
8 Mississippi State vs. 9 UConn
Seattle
5 Clemson vs. 12 LIBERTY (CUSA)
4 Michigan (Big Ten) vs. 13 GRAND CANYON (WAC)
Milwaukee
6 Ole Miss vs. 11 West Virginia/SDSU
3 Wisconsin vs. 14 AKRON (MAC)
Cleveland
7 St. Mary’s vs. 10 New Mexico
2 Alabama vs. 15 OMAHA (Summit)

1-seed Duke

Duke is likely to get the No. 2 overall seed when the selection committee announces the NCAA Tournament field on Sunday. However, the primary focus now turns to the health of Cooper Flagg and how that could impact their March Madness run.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama holds steady on the 2-seed line heading into Selection Sunday, falling in the SEC Tournament to put them just behind Florida and Tennessee when discussing the final 1-seed spot. The Crimson Tide bring a strong resume, keeping them above the rest of the chasing pack.

Midwest (Indianapolis)

Wichita
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 SIUE (OVC)
8 Marquette vs. 9 Georgia
Seattle
5 Oregon vs. 12 DRAKE (MVC)
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 LIPSCOMB (ASUN)
Milwaukee
6 Louisville vs. 11 VCU (A10)
3 Kentucky vs. 14 UNC WILMINGTON (CAA)
Lexington
7 UCLA vs. 10 Utah State
2 Tennessee vs. 15 ROBERT MORRIS (Horizon)

1-seed Houston

Houston completes its dominant run through the Big 12 with a conference title, ensuring they will hear their name called as a 1-seed on Selection Sunday. The Cougars now enter the NCAA Tournament with one of the longest win streaks of the college basketball season.

2-seed Tennessee

Tennessee holds onto a slim chance to jump ahead of Florida for the final 1-seed if they can win the SEC Tournament championship and add a final head-to-head data point to the resume. However, the gap is enough that a last second chance is unlikely.