2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Projecting selection committee's Top-16 reveal

Just one month away from Selection Sunday, the NCAA selection committee is providing the first glimpse at how it views the best teams in college basketball this season. On Saturday, they will unveil the Top-16 overall seeds to this point in the season.

While it is a small section of the overall bracket, the glimpse provides an important baseline for how the rest of the bracket will be built.

This season, in addition to the selection committee’s NET rankings and Quadrant system focus, they have added the Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric to consideration, a slightly different algorithm to Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule.

As the first public release under the latest model drops, here is a predictive look at which 16 teams the NCAA Tournament selection committee could recognize.

1-seed

Auburn (1), Alabama (2), Duke (3), Florida (4)

The 1-seed conversation has remained relatively steady for most of the season so far, especially up top where Auburn separated itself as the No. 1 overall seed. The Tigers had enough cushion to withstand a loss, but now face Alabama with the top spot potentially on the line.

Alabama has made a surge during conference play, moving from the 2-seed line into position to challenge for No. 1 overall with a rivalry matchup this weekend. The Crimson Tide have seen their computer numbers steadily improve since returning close to full health.

Duke had cemented itself as the next-best team behind Auburn, but a loss dragged them into the mix with several SEC teams facing a tougher schedule with just as many eye test wins.

Florida made a last-second push to crack the 1-seed list, picking up the best win in college basketball against Auburn. Their computer numbers line up evenly with Tennessee, and despite less Quad 1 wins, they boast more wins in Quad 2, bringing the overall number of losses into play.

2-seed

Tennessee (5), Houston (6), Purdue (7), Iowa State (8)

The 2-seed line holds multiple teams with a strong case to move up, but remain in waiting until another top team slips up. Tennessee lines up evenly with Florida in the analytic models, and would likely move up further if their rival took one more loss than they do moving forward.

Houston is also in line to make their 1-seed case at any moment. The Cougars hold high marks in many metrics, but must close the gap to the SEC contenders in WAB by capitalizing on their chance to play marquee games the rest of the way.

Purdue ranks atop the Big Ten contenders in nearly all computer models, slowly moving up the board over the past couple months. The Boilermakers have little to worry about below them now, but are also further off from the 1-seed conversation.

Iowa State is on the cusp of the 2-seed conversation, but leaves the door open for several 3-seed contenders behind them to make a case. The Cyclones previously held a spot much further up the board, but several Big 12 losses hurt their WAB and other metrics.

3-seed

Texas A&M (9), Kentucky (10), Arizona (11), Kansas (12)

Texas A&M holds an interesting case to jump from the 3-seed to 2-seed conversation, with a high WAB metric compared to the teams directly above them. However, the Aggies lack the other computer numbers and must rely partially on the strength of the SEC to help them.

Kentucky sits in a similar position, with some of the biggest wins in college basketball under their belt. However, the Wildcats have also taken enough losses to drop them below the high-major teams at the top of multiple conferences with better computer numbers.

Arizona saw a meteoric rise at the start of conference play, capitalizing on Big 12 opportunities to raise its WAB drastically to more evenly match its NET rankings and other computer data. With this consistency, they are now firmly in the mix to land at least a 4-seed.

Kansas gets into the mix for a 3-seed primarily due to its NET ranking, which sits higher than some other metric place them at this time. The Jayhawks eye test and Quadrant matchups are a mixed bag at times, but with the chance injuries could be factored into certain losses, they cannot be ruled out.

4-seed

Texas Tech (13), Wisconsin (14), Michigan (15), Ole Miss (16)

Texas Tech has seen a similar rise to Arizona in the Big 12, as the two teams demonstrate the ability to bring WAB closer to NET. The result of the numbers evening out is a big move up the board toward a top seed.

Wisconsin also holds a solid overall resume which combines computer data with the eye test. The Badgers lack nothing on their resume to ensure a 4-seed at minimum when March Madness begins.

Michigan currently sits atop the Big Ten standings, with a WAB which helps overcome the NET ranking to put them firmly in the mix as a 4-seed. The Wolverines must now keep their resume clean to continue the upward move.

Ole Miss benefits from the strength of the SEC to land inside the 4-seed line at this time. Despite having a NET ranking lower than some others, the WAB sits inside the Top 10 and provides them plenty case when paired with the eye test.

Other contenders

Memphis, St. John’s, Missouri, Marquette

Memphis holds the most interesting case for a 4-seed of those below the cutline. The Tigers have low computer numbers due to the weakness of their conference, but continue to pick up wins and hold a strong Q1 standing after non-conference success.

St. John’s also sits on the edge of a 4-seed position. The Red Storm must work to get its NET ranking in line with the other computer metrics with the teens to cement itself with other possible teams.

Missouri holds the computer numbers across the board to contend, and benefits from the SEC strength. This helps make up for the lack of Q1 wins other teams in the running have so far.

Marquette previously held a solid spot within the first four lines, but dropped with several losses which now see them outside looking in. However, given the form they have shown, they remain worth mentioning.