NCAA Tournament Projections: ESPN releases updated Bracketology with ACC, SEC-heavy bubble

After the first weekend of March, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi updated Bracketology with his latest projection for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

The conversation continues to be how the bubble will impact the SEC, the ACC, and, to an extent, the Big Ten coming into the final week of their regular seasons. Ten of the sixteen teams on the bubble are from those three respective conferences with five in and seven out for this bracket. That includes six among the eight in the Last Four In and First Four Out.

With that, the Southeastern Conference lost a berth but are still atop the total bids with 12 with it potentially still being a record-tying or setting number for the SEC and then the Big Ten with 11. The Big 12 is then third with eight, the Mountain West has joined the Big East with four apiece, and the ACC is down to a trio ahead of the pair out of the WCC.

Here’s how Lunardi’s updated field looked as of this morning at ESPN:

ESPN Bracketology: On the Bubble

Last Four Byes: Baylor, San Diego State, Georgia, Indiana
Last Four In: Ohio State, Arkansas, Nebraska, Boise State
First Four Out: Oklahoma, Xavier, North Carolina, Texas
Next Four Out: SMU, Cincinnati, Villanova, Wake Forest

Again, ESPN has ten teams on this bracket’s bubble from the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten. This is more about the SEC and ACC, though, with the three from the Big Ten in Indiana, Ohio State, Nebraska still on the edge but all inside the field.

The Southeastern Conference has had Georgia go from the Next Four Out to the Last Four Byes with two wins last week but one to two losses for Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas has them all almost or already out going into the final week of conference play, including a matchup between the Sooners and Longhorns, and ahead of their tournament next week in Nashville. The Atlantic Coast Conference then has their three on the outside looking in with North Carolina and SMU holding in the First Four Out and Next Four Out respectively while Wake Forest had slid all the way to the back of the Next Four Out.

South Region – Atlanta

Auburn is all but certain to be the No. 1 overall seed, if, at worst, no lower than No. 2, in the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday. That’s with the Tigers, with a 94-78 win at Kentucky this weekend, moving to 27-2 overall, with an unbelievable mark of 16-2 in Quad I games in the NET, and winning the regular-season title for themselves in the SEC at 15-1.

The Big Ten then saw almost all of the movement in the South Region. Illinois moved up to a No. 7 seed following a 20-point upset win at Michigan while Indiana is into the field as a No. 11 seed as winners of four of five, including two top-fifteen wins and one this weekend by sixteen at Washington. Nebraska, though, slid as the second-to-last team in the field having lost three straight.

1. Auburn vs. 16. Southern/Bucknell
8. Creighton vs. 9. Utah State
5. Clemson vs. 12. Nebraska/Boise State
4. Purdue vs. 13. High Point

6. Saint Mary’s vs. 11. Indiana
3. Kentucky vs. 14. Utah Valley
7. Illinois vs. 10. San Diego State
2. Iowa State vs. 15. Bryant

East Region – Newark

Duke remained the second of the No. 1 seeds in this update at ESPN following two more blowout wins at home the past three days to clinch at least a share of the regular-season title in the ACC. They won by 35 over Florida State and 33 over Wake Forest, having won 23 of 24 now by an average margin of 23.7 and each of their last seven by 31.9 points, to move to 27-3 overall heading into their season finale this weekend in Chapel Hill.

The Big East saw a pair of shifts in the East Region with St. John’s up to a No. 3 seed after winning the conference’s regular season title with a fifth-straight win and then UConn up to a No. 8 seed having won their two from last week. Kansas is then back down to a No. 7 seed having taken two top-ten losses in three days while VCU is also up to a No. 10 seed, having won eight straight, as the automatic qualifier still out of the A-10.

1. Duke vs. 16. Quinnipiac/Southeast Missouri State
8. Connecticut vs. 9. Vanderbilt
5. Maryland vs. 12. Drake
4. Arizona vs. 13. Akron

6. UCLA vs. 11. Georgia
3. St. John’s vs. 14. Towson
7. Kansas vs. 10. VCU
2. Florida vs. 15. Robert Morris

Midwest Region – Indianapolis

Houston moved up to the third of the No. 1 seeds for ESPN after a pair of home wins where they won the regular-season title in the Big 12 on Saturday before adding another quality win on Monday. A nine-point win over Cincinnati and a six-point win over Kansas moved the Cougars to 26-4 overall and 18-1 league play having won nine straight going into this weekend’s finale in Waco.

The Midwest Region then saw the most movement. Four of those were teams in the SEC sliding with Alabama down to a No. 2 after a buzzer-beating loss on Rocky Top, Texas A&M down to a No. 4 seed having lost four straight, Ole Miss down to a No. 8 after another lesser week from the Rebels, and then Arkansas back down to a No. 11 on the bubble after a bad loss at South Carolina. Louisville is then up to a No. 6 seed having won seven straight, and seventeen of eighteen, as they’re in a tie for second in the ACC.

1. Houston vs. 16. Omaha
8. Ole Miss vs. 9. Gonzaga
5. Oregon vs. 12. McNeese State
4. Texas A&M vs. 13. Lipscomb

6. Louisville vs. 11. Ohio State/Arkansas,
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Jacksonville State
7. Memphis vs. 10. Baylor
2. Alabama vs. 15. South Alabama

West Region – San Francisco

Jahmai Mashack moved Tennessee back onto the one-line as they’re the last of the No. 1 seeds at ESPN. That’s after his game-winning three from right near half-court to win a top-six matchup against the Crimson Tide to move the Volunteers to 24-5 overall and back within the double-byes in the SEC with two easier games before the conference tournament next week in Music City.

Mid-majors then had the movement in the West Region. Chattanooga, ironically just two hours southeast of Knoxville, is up to a No. 13 seed having won eleven straight to win a regular-season title as the automatic qualifier in the SoCon. New Mexico, the auto-bid from the Mountain West, is then down as a No. 9 with just a one-game lead in the league now while Norfolk State, the auto-berth from the MEAC, has lost two straight to put themselves in a tie with South Carolina State for the conference’s regular-season crown with one game to go.

1. Tennessee vs. 16. Norfolk State
8. BYU vs. 9. New Mexico
5. Missouri vs. 12. Yale
4. Michigan vs. 13. Chattanooga

6. Marquette vs. 11. UC San Diego
3. Texas Tech vs. 14. Northern Colorado
7. Mississippi State vs. 10. West Virginia
2. Michigan State vs. 15. Central Connecticut State