2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Way-too-early Bracketology projections for 68, 72, 76-team fields

After the final set of NBA Draft withdrawals became official, the picture of college basketball’s 2025-26 season became much more clear. With NIL drawing a large amount of talent back for an extra season, the top of this season’s bracketology contenders could be loaded.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-or-more-team bracket in March. In the absence of those numbers for next season, bracketology must rely on preseason projections of how each team will perform with their incoming transfers and recruits.

Another wrinkle in the offseason is the NCAA’s pursuit of tournament expansion, with 68, 72 and 76-team formats all on the table in 2026. Here is a way-too-early look at the 2026 NCAA Tournament field based on what we know.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Purdue, Houston, Duke, Florida
Last four byes: Iowa, Clemson, St. Mary’s, Oregon
In if Field of 68: Vanderbilt, Virginia, USC, Kansas State
In if Field of 72: LSU, Maryland, Cincinnati, Miami
In if Field of 76: Georgia, Butler, SMU, Ohio State

First Four (Dayton)

16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
16 CCSU (NEC) vs. 16 Merrimack (MAAC)
11 Vanderbilt vs. 11 USC
11 Virginia vs. 11 Kansas State

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 CCSU/Merrimack
8 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 9 Ole Miss
Portland
5 Arizona vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 UConn vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Philadelphia
6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Virginia/Kansas State
3 Tennessee vs. 14 McNeese (Southland)
Buffalo
7 Texas A&M vs. 10 Clemson
2 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 15 Vermont (AEC)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue again brings back a wealth of returning talent, including multiple All-Big Ten selections from the past season. Head coach Matt Painter complements what he had with a pair of big-time transfer portal players and an intriguing international prospect.

2-seed St. John’s

Under Rick Pitino, there is no question that St. John’s will continue to invest big in the roster, which got multiple top-end additions which promise to pay off big-time this year. How those players mesh with each other and the returning talent will set the tone.

West (San Jose)

Tampa
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 Colgate (Patriot)
8 Marquette vs. 9 Oklahoma
San Diego
5 Illinois vs. 12 UC Irvine (Big West)
4 Kansas vs. 13 Murray State (MVC)
Buffalo
6 Creighton vs. 11 Vanderbilt/USC
3 Iowa State vs. 14 James Madison (SBC)
Greenville
7 Indiana vs. 10 St. Mary’s
2 Auburn vs. 15 Oakland (Horizon)

1-seed Florida

Fresh off a national championship, Todd Golden promises to get a large portion of his frontcourt back this season. While they lose a lot at guard, they restocked in the transfer portal with multiple big splashes and got depth in a pair of Top 50 recruits on the way.

2-seed Auburn

Auburn had to overhaul its veteran roster which made a deep NCAA Tournament run last season, and did so through the transfer portal. Bruce Pearl complemented some high-profile moves with a combination of Junior College players and incoming freshmen.

East (Washington DC)

Oklahoma City
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 SEMO (OVC)
8 Missouri vs. 9 NC State
San Diego
5 Louisville vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Charleston (CAA)
Philadelphia
6 Texas vs. 11 St. Bonaventure (A10)
3 Michigan vs. 14 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Tampa
7 North Carolina vs. 10 Oregon
2 Alabama vs. 15 North Dakota State (Summit)

1-seed Houston

Houston brings a solid combination of retuning production and incoming talent which centers on the No. 1 recruiting class in the On3 Industry Rankings. With head coach Kelvin Sampson running the defense, the offensive upside of these players could make something special.

2-seed Alabama

Alabama overhauls the core of its team with multiple starts aging out of college basketball, but gets a big boost with the surprise decision of Labaron Philon to return for a sophomore campaign. Under Nate Oats, a new group of transfers and highly-ranked freshmen look ready to contend again.

South (Houston)

Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Norfolk State/Southern
8 SDSU (MWC) vs. 9 Mississippi State
Portland
5 BYU vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Michigan State vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Oklahoma City
6 Arizona vs. 11 Memphis (AAC)
3 Arkansas vs. 14 Furman (SoCon)
St. Louis
7 Baylor vs. 10 Iowa
2 Kentucky vs. 15 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)

1-seed Duke

Duke has a clear plan under head coach Jon Scheyer to surround talented freshmen with a specific mold of veterans from the transfer portal. That vision is clear again with top-ranked prospects helped by returning talent and role players who bring length and defensive intensity.

2-seed Kentucky

Kentucky enters Year Two under Mark Pope with high hopes that he can combine the culture of last season’s team with the influx of incoming talent. Multiple Top 50 freshmen round out a group of returning production and high-end transfer portal prospects.