5 states with surprisingly low Drafted Talent Ratios

Diving deep into On3’s Draft by Stars data, you can find some clear-cut trends. For example, you can see that being ranked as a five-star recruit gives you a 63% chance of getting drafted. Other trends also can be spotted, such as how the Southern states dominate in producing the most NFL draft picks per capita. What can also be seen is that some states — despite large population bases or rich high school football histories — have a surprisingly low Drafted Talent Ratio over the past five years.

On3’s Drafted Talent Ratio is the ratio of drafted blue-chip players compared to the population share. It’s one of the new metrics now on display on On3’s Draft by Stars page.

Here are five states that might surprise college football fans with their low Drafted Talent Ratio over the past five years:

California

Drafted Talent Ratio: 76%
Population: 12%
5-stars: 14
4-stars: 39
3-stars: 48
The Skinny: For years, recruiting fans have heard about the Big Three of Texas, Florida and California when it comes to sending high school players on to the next level. There was a period when the gap between Florida, Texas and California was really narrow for sending blue-chip players to the NFL draft. But data over the past five years indicate the Golden State has slipped some, especially when you see the state has 12% of the nation’s population.

Yes, California will always be home to top high school football and NFL draft talent. But other states like Georgia, Alabama and North Carolina are closing the gap with smaller population bases. And that can be clearly seen with California’s dismal 76% Drafted Talent Ratio and lower than expected 9.1% Drafted Blue Chip Share.

To put it in better perspective, Kansas and Iowa have higher Drafted Talent Ratios than California.

New York

Drafted Talent Ratio: 14%
Population: 6%
5-stars: 3
4-stars: 2
3-stars: 4
The Skinny: Let’s make it clear right out of the gate, New York has never been a state that’s produced a ton of college football prospects. Yet, you would think that with a population of 19.45 million people, there would have to be more players drafted from the state. But that’s just not the case and it’s on display with New York’s 14% Drafted Talent Ratio. For example, the 2021 NFL draft featured only two players from New York.

Illinois

Drafted Talent Ratio: 49%
Population: 4%
5-stars: 2
4-stars: 9
3-stars: 17
The Skinny: Illinois has always ebbed and flowed between being a basketball and football state. But over the past five years, it’s pretty clear the quality and quantity of blue-chip players moving on to the NFL draft are simply not there.

That has to be disappointing for a proud Illinois high school football community, especially when you have a population base of 12.67 million people, and Chicagoland has around 9.7 million alone.

There is good high school football being played in Illinois, but the numbers show that isn’t translating into blue-chip draft picks. That’s seen with the 49% Drafted Talent Ratio. Furthermore, Illinois only had three players picked in the 2021 NFL draft.

Arizona

Drafted Talent Ratio: 39%
Population: 2%
5-stars: 1
4-stars: 4
3-stars: 7
The Skinny: Much has been written about how Arizona is among the fastest-growing states, according to new U.S. Census Bureau data. Arizona ranked third for top states in numeric growth from July 2020 to July 2021, following Texas and Florida. Arizona’s population increase comes on the heels of the 2020 census showing strong growth in Phoenix over the past decade.

However, that growth from a population standpoint has not quite translated on to the football field — yet.

Over the past five years, Arizona has had only a 39% Drafted Talent Ratio along with a 0.9% Drafted Blue Chip Share.

It will be interesting to follow Arizona in the coming years, especially with the growth of population and the fact that more and more high-ranked recruits, like four-star TE Duce Robinson, are coming from the state. For example, the 2023 On3 Consensus ranking for Arizona features seven four-star recruits.

Missouri

Drafted Talent Ratio: 46%
Population: 2%
5-stars: 0
4-stars: 5
3-stars: 8
The Skinny: The well was pretty dry in the Show-Me State over the past five years. Since the 2017 NFL draft, Missouri’s Drafted Talent Ratio is only 46% and the Drafted Blue Chip Share is only 0.9%. Those numbers are quite depressing for a coaching community in Kansas City and St. Louis that prides itself on being able to compete with anybody in the country.

But like Arizona, there is hope for the future in Missouri.

The 2023 and 2024 recruiting classes in Missouri are shaping up to be the best back-to-back classes in more than two decades. The 2023 class already features No. 35 overall Chandavian Bradley and seven players ranked in the top 300 of the On3 Consensus. The 2024 class might be even better with Ryan Wingo ranked as the No. 1 receiver in the country.