5 teams with a real shot at winning the 2025 NCAA Tournament

Selection Sunday is here, and the full field of 68 is set. One consensus that stands out is the overwhelming sense of parity throughout the field. Do not be surprised to see several lower-seeded teams upset the higher ones, shaking up the usual, chalky, bracket expectations. However, despite this uncertainty, a clear top tier of teams has emerged as we head into the start of the NCAA Tournament.

Teams like Tennessee and Texas Tech have the talent and upside to make runs to the Final Four. However, all three have shown inconsistencies in the 2025 calendar year. At their peak, they are capable of competing with anyone, but the big question is, can they sustain that level of play?

Let’s dive into five teams that, in my opinion, have what it takes to possibly make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament and cut down the nets in San Antonio.

Auburn (28-5)

Bart Torvik: No. 3
KenPom: No. 4
NET: No. 2

Auburn has been the best team in the country for much of the season, and that still holds true, despite a late-season stumble in which they dropped three of their final four games heading into the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers are averaging 83.8 points per game, ranking 10th in D-I, while holding opponents to just 29.2 percent from beyond the arc (7th in D-I).

One area for concern for Auburn is their offensive play at the point of attack, but they boast a roster filled with versatile, two-way players. Their eight-man rotation, with each member playing 10 or more minutes per game, provides depth and balance.

While all eyes will be on senior post Johni Broome, the 2024-25 SEC Player of the Year, Bruce Pearl’s group has also shown impressive shooting in conference play. They shot 37.3 percent from three-point range (23.7 attempts) in SEC play and averaged 22.4 free-throw attempts per game, highlighting their offensive efficiency.

Auburn is 16-5 this season in Quad 1 games with no losses coming outside of Q1.

Duke (31-3)

Bart Torvik: No. 2
KenPom: No. 1
NET: No. 1

Duke has lost one game (2/8 at Clemson) since a neutral site November 26 game against Kansas. The ACC regular season and tournament champions are riding an 8-game win streak into the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils have had a top-10 defense throughout most of the year. They are giving up 61.9 points per game and are fourth in D-I by both KenPom and Bart Torvik in defensive rating.

Duke is led in each major statistical category by freshman Cooper Flagg, the ACC Player of the Year. The 6-foot-9 Flagg is averaging 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. Jon Scheyer’s group has a rotation of ten players – when fully healthy – who are playing 10 or more minutes and they are shooting 48.8 percent from the field as a team.

A major question with the Blue Devils will be the health of Flagg (ankle) and the availability of Maliq Brown (shoulder). Duke averaged 84.4 points per game and shot 50.5 percent from the field, 39.6 percent from three, during ACC play. They also only played seven Quad 1 games (6-1) in the ACC where they finished 19-1. Duke is 9-3 overall this season in Q1 games.

Florida (30-4)

Bart Torvik: No. 4
KenPom: No. 2
NET: No. 4

Florida’s offense has been humming along this season. The Gators are averaging 85.4 points per game (3rd in D-I) while making 30.4 field goals (6th in D-I). According to KenPom, they have the No. 1 offensive rating in the country. Heading into the NCAA Tournament, they have won 11 of their past 12 games, including the SEC Championship.

Defensively, the Gators have held up pretty well finishing 13th in defensive efficiency with Bart Torvik, and 10th with KenPom. Where they have shined has been on the boards. Their 36.7 rebounds per game in SEC play finished second in the league. Their 28.3 defensive rebounds per game is eighth in D-I and their 13.8 offensive rebounds finished No. 12.

Florida has 10 players averaging double-figure minutes per contest this season. Todd Golden has a well-constructed and versatile roster that prides itself on physicality and being two-way threats. The three-guard, Walter Clayton (17.4), Alijah Martin (14.6), and Will Richard (13.5) are leading the way in scoring as all three are shooting better than 35 percent from three for the season.

Florida is 10-4 in Quad 1 games and they have not had a loss outside of Q1 this season.

Houston (30-4)

Bart Torvik: No. 1
KenPom: No. 3
NET: No. 3

The physicality that Houston plays with is hard to ignore. All nine players in their rotation defend and they crash the boards. That is the central identity of this Houston team. They are holding opponents to 58.5 points this season, second in D-I. This has long been the identity of Kelvin Sampson teams, but this year’s Cougar team is intriguing because of their offensive output.

Houston is shooting 39.8 percent from three on 20.3 attempts per game. But their ability to go 19-1 in the Big 12 this season, is based primarily on the defensive end of the floor. The Cougars are holding their opponents to 51.3 field goal attempts per game and opponents are shooting 38.3 percent from the field. While there are still some concerns about whether Houston can create enough offense, they have four players averaging between 10.8 and 15.2 points while all three backcourt starters, LJ Cryer (42.2%), Emanuel Sharp (42.8%), and Milos Uzan (42.6%) are all over 40 percent from three on the season.

Houston has lost one game since November 30 (Texas Tech on 2/1). They are 14-3 in Quad 1 games this season. That November 30 game ended up as a Quad 2 loss to San Diego State.

Michigan State (27-6)

Bart Torvik: No,. 13
KenPom: No. 8
NET: No. 11

Michigan State found its rhythm in Big Ten play, going 17-3 overall in the conference ringing off separate seven and eight-game win streaks. Since moving into the starting lineup, Jase Richardson has really given this Spartan team a new look. The 6-foot-2 guard is averaging 17.3 points on 42.3 percent shooting from three in his 11 starts.

Michigan State has hung its hat on the defensive end of the floor this season. They held Big Ten opponents to 66.5 points per game, leading the league, and their 27.7 rebounds per contest was second in Big Ten play. Teams this season shot 40.3 percent from the field. Offensively, the Spartans got to the line 22.4 times per game and they attempted 39.9 two-point shots and only 19.4 threes.

Bart Torvik and KenPom both had Tom Izzo’s team in the top five of defensive rating. If they are able to establish the physicality of the game, and Richardson gets help on the offensive end, this Michigan State team has proven to be dangerous. They have won eight of their last nine games heading into the NCAA Tournament.

The Spartans are 13-5 this season in Quad 1 games while finishing 18-6 in Quads 1 and 2, dropping a Q2 game to Indiana.