The 7 biggest questions on Selection Sunday

Good morning, Selection Sunday. After a week-plus of late-game heroics, improbable upsets and incredible individual performances, we’re now just hours away from the NCAA tournament selection committee unveiling this season’s 68-team men’s bracket. 

Here are seven of the most important questions to keep in mind on Selection Sunday.

1. Which teams are getting the No. 1 seeds?

As for the No. 1 seeds, it’s a wrap heading into Selection Sunday. Gonzaga is expected to be the tournament’s top overall seed. The Zags will be followed by a familiar face, former longtime assistant Tommy Lloyd, who has done an outstanding job leading Arizona to the Pac-12 regular-season and tournament titles. Then come two teams from the nation’s strongest conference from top to bottom: Kansas and Baylor. 

2. Which teams — and fans — are most anxious today?

Start with those with a vested interest in Xavier, Rutgers and SMU making the field. Then there are those in College Station, Texas, but at least Texas A&M controls its own destiny in a sense. Beat Tennessee on Sunday to claim the league’s automatic berth and the Aggies are in. 

3. Could the No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament wind up in the First Four?

It would be quite an indictment of the seen-better-days ACC if the No. 2 seed in the league tournament wound up barely making the field and being relegated to the First Four in Dayton. It’s certainly conceivable for Notre Dame, which has amassed a profoundly bland tournament résumé. The Fighting Irish has just two Quad 1 victories and two Quad 2 victories, meaning 17 of its 21 wins are against Quad 3 and 4 opponents. That said, it beat Kentucky, which is cemented as a No. 2 seed and among the favorites to win the national title. Another impressive victory came against North Carolina, a win that looks better now that the Tar Heels have made a March push to improve their own credentials. Bottom line: Notre Dame is in the danger zone and could be destined for Dayton.

4. How many bids will the three best West Coast conferences get?

This has been a banner year for basketball in the West. The Pac-12 will receive three bids (Arizona, UCLA and USC). The West Coast Conference is the best it ever has been; it will receive three (Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and San Francisco). The Mountain West Conference — if you watched even a few moments of its tournament — is extremely competitive; it should receive four bids (Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State and Wyoming). The Cowboys are the only one in tenuous position because they failed to beat anyone of note outside the friendly confines (and altitude) of Laramie, Wyo. Gonzaga, UCLA and Arizona are national title contenders. As for everyone else, only Wyoming and San Francisco would qualify as notable surprises if they reached the Sweet 16.

5. How will the committee assess the résumés of Houston and Saint Mary’s?

Both are formidable, extremely well-coached teams. When the Saint Mary’s offense is humming, it’s a thing of beauty, as it was when the Gaels dominated Gonzaga at home. Houston plays a different style, winning games with miserly defense, rebounding and toughness. Both formulas work. Neither plays in a Power 5 conference, but both certainly pass the eye test. Dig into the data-driven team reports to see that Houston has a strong 12-4 record on the road or in neutral-site games. But it has beaten only one Quad 1 team, Oklahoma State. In the selection committee’s earlier top 16 unveiling, Houston did not make the cut, as the committee noted that its impressive NET ranking (now it’s No. 3) may not have been an accurate indicator of strength. As for Saint Mary’s, the Gaels have four Quad 1 wins, including over Gonzaga and twice over San Francisco. What’s more, Randy Bennett’s team’s strength of schedule ranks fifth nationally. Both should wind up on the No. 5 seed line, although the six line is also possible. 

6. Look at Rutgers’ résumé — look closely — and what do you see?

Rutgers’ tournament résumé is this year’s Rorschach test. Some selection committee members could look at it and admire six Quad 1 victories, over Iowa (which looks better and better), Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois and Purdue. Securing the No. 4 Big Ten tournament seed in the nation’s second-best conference also matters. On the other hand, Rutgers is 9-3 against Quad 1 and 2 teams, including losses to Lafayette (NET ranking 319) at home and UMass (177). Also alarming is a non-conference strength of schedule that ranks 327th nationally. One long-entrenched way to determine whether a team is NCAA tournament-caliber is their performance against top teams. Because of that, Rutgers should squeeze in. But if it is excluded, look no further than that late-November stretch against Lafayette and UMass.

7. Which game today will committee members watch most closely?

A tie between the SEC title game and the Atlantic 10 championship. If Texas A&M is able to continue its blistering hot play and knock off surging Tennessee, the Aggies would earn the automatic berth and crush the hopes of another bubble team. Committee members also will have a keen eye on the Atlantic 10 final between Richmond and Davidson. If Richmond were to beat Davidson, would Davidson earn an at-large bid, thus giving the A-10 two bids? Best assessment is that Davidson would have a slightly better than 50 percent chance. It has a 14-4 record in road and neutral-court games. It has six victories against Quad 1 or 2 competition, most notably beating Alabama and VCU. When it comes to the fringes of the at-large field, there remains high drama on this Selection Sunday afternoon, just hours before the NCAA bracket is unveiled.