Is expanding the right move for AAC? ‘I don’t understand it’

With its expansion options dwindling, the AAC is exploring taking the “strength in numbers” path forward. 

In the wake of seeing stalwarts Cincinnati, Houston and UCF jump to the Big 12 and being spurned by Mountain West Conference schools, the AAC is examining the possibility of ballooning to 14 by adding six schools from Conference USA: North Texas, UTSA, FAU, UAB, Charlotte and Rice. The possibility of AAC expansion was first reported by Yahoo Sports’ Pete Thamel. 

This move would establish an AAC presence in most major markets in the football-crazed state of Texas, stretching from San Antonio to Houston to the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. It also basically would block the MWC from extending its footprint into Texas. And in this time of considerable conference upheaval, it would bring the AAC a measure of security as a Group of 5 league. 

Beyond that, it’s hard to pinpoint a significant upside for the league. In fact, one prominent TV source told On3 on Tuesday that he disagrees with the idea, adding that, “I don’t understand it. I am not sure how much strengthening is being done.”

Plucking two particular schools from Conference USA — UAB, a sound football program with potential, and UTSA, which just cracked the top 25 in football — makes sense. Choosing to add the other four more raises the question of whether they add tangible value, or whether this instead would be more a case of “subtraction by addition.”

The addition of three Texas schools is interesting, particularly North Texas. UTSA seemingly would be a preferred selection over North Texas not only because its program is on the upswing but also because its inclusion extends the AAC’s reach to San Antonio. The conference already has a team in the Dallas area in SMU, which has become formidable under coach Sonny Dykes.

As it stands now, the Mustangs are well-positioned to be the best non-Power 5 school in talent-rich Texas. But SMU could be looking around and seeing that its own league has added three more schools in its state — including one right up the road in Denton — all of whom will be trying to beat the Mustangs in recruiting and on the field. This expansion could marginalize SMU’s stature more than it elevates it. 

And while each of the six schools resides in relatively large markets, none is even the number two school in that market. In the Dallas Metroplex, Texas and Oklahoma are the biggest games in town. In Houston and San Antonio, it’s Texas and Texas A&M; interestingly, Rice is a long way behind crosstown foe Houston, and, in turn, Houston is a long way behind Texas and A&M. In Boca Raton, Fla., it’s Miami, Florida and Florida State. In Birmingham, it’s Alabama and Auburn. And in Charlotte, fans are focused on a smorgasbord of teams: North Carolina, Clemson, South Carolina and North Carolina State (not to mention Duke and Wake Forest in basketball).

Competitively on the basketball side, the conference almost surely would weaken. The tradition of Cincinnati and the national relevance of Houston under coach Kelvin Sampson are traded out for a fairly competitive UAB program and five teams that likely will diminish the perception of the league.

The departures of Cincinnati, Houston and UCF will leave the AAC with eight football-playing schools. The AAC initially set its sights on adding four MWC schools — Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State and San Diego State — but all declined before formal offers were made.

Navy is an AAC member for only football, while conference member Wichita State does not play football. Each AAC school receives some $7 million annually as part of the league’s media rights deal with ESPN. The 12-year, $1 billion deal started in the fall of 2020 and runs through the 2031-32 academic year. 

Losing three notable schools to the Big 12 is a sizable hit to the conference, one that is difficult to offset. It’s unclear how adding these six will translate into the whole being greater than the sum of its parts.

Quick hits . . .

+ Wednesday is a big day on the high school NIL front. The New York State Public High School Athletic Association is expected to act on a proposal that would permit athletes in the state to enter into endorsement deals as long as no school uniforms, mascots or logos are affiliated with the deal. This would be a major step, making New York and California the nation’s only states that allow NIL activity at the high school level to this extent. The NIL landscape at the high school level has been shrouded in confusion. Disparate state regulations — as well as many states not yet even addressing the issue at the high school level — have created an uneven playing field and a minefield for high school athletes concerned about protecting their eligibility. The hope is that the New York regulations can provide clarity and a potential NIL roadmap for high school athletes and coaches.

+ At Big East basketball media day Tuesday, Villanova coach Jay Wright addressed handling uneven NIL player success, telling Amanda Christovich of Front Office Sports that it’s important to teach “patience to a younger guy who is watching an older guy get it and (then) might think, ‘I’m entitled, I should get that.’ . . . This is the business world. . . . This is supply and demand. We talk about dealing with that . . . why certain guys got invited to something and other guys didn’t. But it’s going to be constant throughout the season.”