Evaluating how many NCAA Tournament bids ACC can secure in down season

The ACC has long been considered one of the best conferences in college basketball, bringing blue blood programs like Duke and North Carolina up against other historic powerhouses like Louisville and Syracuse in recent years.

However, 2023-24 has undoubtedly been a down year for the conference.

Following a recent losing streak by Clemson – who previously created an impressive non-conference resume – some have speculated the ACC could end up with just two bids into the NCAA Tournament.

With so many questions about which ACC teams can build an NCAA Tournament resume, it is time to take a look at what it will take to get the job done.

Tournament locks

Teams: North Carolina, Duke

North Carolina and Duke have always been among the top ACC teams in the standings, and this season is no different as they both sit inside the Top 10 of the AP Poll ahead of their first matchup this weekend.

Both appear to be NCAA Tournament locks at this point, now battling for seeding and a chance to host a regional close to home for the fans.

NET Rankings:

9 – North Carolina
18 – Duke

North Carolina started 9-0 in conference play before a loss on Tuesday. However, the Tar Heels remain in good shape with 10 games left in the regular season, likely needing at best a 5-5 stretch to get an at-large bid, although they will want to do much better.

Duke is just below North Carolina in all the computer metrics but has two head-to-head chances left to swing those numbers. 11 ACC matchups remain overall, including four against the teams in the bottom section of this story, making their chances better than good of getting a bid.

In the field

Teams: Clemson

Clemson was close to joining the blue bloods as an NCAA Tournament lock at the turn of the calendar, but a 4-5 start to conference play has damaged the resume. The former Top 25 team is now looking to avoid a spot on the bubble.

NET Rankings:

34 – Clemson

Most recently an 8-seed in On3’s Bracketology update from Jan. 26, the Tigers still have a bit of space but have eaten up about as much as they can comfortably lose within a month.

With 10 games left in the regular season, Clemson will need to finish closer to 8-2 than 6-4 to avoid sweating out the bubble and risking a reality where the ACC only receives two NCAA Tournament bids.

Bubble teams

Teams: Wake Forest, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Wake Forest, Virginia and Virginia Tech make up perhaps the most important group in the discussion about the ACC’s NCAA Tournament outlook as they all sit on the bubble.

Good finishes through February and March would end the conversation about bids and even flip the conference into a story of success if they all join the party.

NET Rankings:

44 – Wake Forest
47 – Virginia
50 – Virginia Tech

Wake Forest currently holds the best case for an NCAA Tournament bid in this group with a 7-4 record in the first two quadrants despite no Q1 wins, complemented by an 8-0 record in Q3 and Q4. Picking up a Q1 win is the biggest need for the Demon Deacons, who could then withstand a few more bumps in Q2.

Virginia has a Q1 win, but also brings a Q3 loss to the table, complicating their resume. In addition to consistent results, the Cavaliers need to improve their standing in the computer numbers against the bottom teams in the ACC to move up the board.

Virginia Tech has two Q1 wins and no losses in Q3 or Q4, putting them in good company. The problem for the Hokies is the eight overall losses. Being able to stay in the win column sounds oversimplified but will make or break the season.

Work to do

Teams: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, NC State

These teams have been placed in the fourth of five tiers in the ACC because they still have life at this point of the season when it comes to NCAA Tournament discussions. Perhaps they are not currently in the field, or even in the traditional ‘First Four Out’ category at the moment but have enough rope left to put together a debatable resume.

NET Rankings:

65 – Pittsburgh
67 – Miami
77 – Syracuse
80 – NC State

All of these teams will have chances to pick up wins over good teams the rest of the way in the ACC. However, the issue they will all face is a complicated maze of results amongst each other. Reaching the bubble will require a nearly perfect run by one of these teams in February, but that likely means eliminating others here and hurting the case of teams above.

Out of the picture

Teams: Florida State, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Louisville

Looking at this group might be strange for someone who has missed the past couple seasons of college basketball, but this is the bottom of the ACC. These teams can only play spoiler at this point – like Georgia Tech did on Tuesday – but for the sake of the conference getting more bids, they would be more helpful filling out the loss column.

NET Rankings:

87 – Florida State
89 – Boston College
128 – Georgia Tech
171 – Notre Dame
224 – Louisville

For the bottom half of the ACC, the path to the NCAA Tournament is simple. However unlikely, it has been done before. Get your team in order and win the ACC Tournament.

After all, there is an automatic bid in play midway through March, and no computer numbers or overall record can stop you from earning it. Perhaps a team playing spoiler – like Georgia Tech has against the top three teams in the ACC – can do it all in the course of one week.

Future ACC teams

Teams: SMU, Stanford, California

These teams do not count toward the total for ACC fans this season, but it is always nice to see the future of the league enter on a high note. Just like FAU made waves with a deep NCAA Tournament run, perhaps the ACC can point to a future opponent as a key piece of the league next year.

NET Rankings:

38 – SMU
109 – Stanford
134 – California

Perhaps Stanford and California are closer to the fifth category than the fourth this season, but SMU has the computer numbers to support a spot on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

To participate in March Madness, the Mustangs will need to strengthen the resume with a Q1 win to offset the Q3 loss and must prove themselves through the eye test when they have an opportunity in February and March.