SEC Championship point spread: Picking Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Nick Saban‘s teams are not usually underdogs. But heading into Saturday’s SEC Championship against Georgia, Alabama is a 5.5-point dog. It’s the first time since the 2021 SEC title game against UGA that the Crimson Tide are not favored to win.

Even so, sports betting expert Patrick Meagher cannot believe the line is only 5.5. He believes Georgia should be favored by a whole lot more, especially when comparing it to Friday’s Pac-12 Championship game between Oregon and Washington. Georgia has been a dominant team while there have been bumps along the way for Alabama.

How to watch Alabama vs. Georgia

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET (Saturday)
Channel: CBS, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium — Atlanta, GA

In his eyes, the oddsmakers are keeping the number lower because people love to bet on Saban. If Alabama was near +10, much like Washington is, the public would instantly jump on it and potentially cause a massive loss for the books.

“Let me ask you this,” Meagher said during Monday’s episode of Andy Staples On3. “Why is Georiga only laying 5.5 points yet Oregon is laying close to 10 against Washington — who hasn’t lost in 19 games. It’s perception. The public loves to bet Nick Saban. The public loves to bet teams they know and they care about. Georgia, obviously, is one of them but this is a perception game.

“This number is way too short. Georgia is absolutely going to beat up on Alabama.”

From a betting perspective to a football one — Staples shot down the notion of Georgia and Kirby Smart struggling against mobile quarterbacks and being able to extend plays. While Jalen Milroe has been good in those scenarios, the Georgia pass rush is going to be different.

“Everybody says ‘Kirby Smart doesn’t do well against running quarterbacks and Jalen Milroe can run around.’ Jalen Milroe is never going to have the amount of time that he had on the Grave Digger play that he had at the end of the Auburn game,” Staples said. “He will never have that long to throw.”

Staples also reflected on the 2021 SEC Championship where we were in a similar position. Georgia was expected to win the game handily but Alabama came out and surprised people by earning a convincing win of their own.

The difference? Georgia still had a path to the College Football Playoff in ’21 despite a loss in Atlanta. It’s an unlikely fallback Smart will have the go-round, needing to win to continue the quest for three consecutive national championships.

“It felt like Georgia sandbagged last week (vs. Georgia Tech),” Staples said. “I don’t feel like they will sandbag this week… Kirby is looking at this as a must-win. You have to win here.”

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Both Meagher and Staples are taking Georgia to win and cover the spread.