Alabama is ripe to be got, but there's mounting pressure on Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss to deliver results

I’ve seen the tweets and the trendy upset pick. I’ve read the headlines. And frankly, I don’t disagree with the notion that “the time is now” for Lane Kiffin to take down the master and beat Nick Saban and Alabama. 

He’s got the better quarterback. 

The better running back. Better playmakers. 

If you believe Lane, Ole Miss has the better defensive coordinator, too. 

So why are the Rebels a touchdown underdog on Saturday?

Well, because as much as the tide has turned against Alabama in the last two weeks, Saban’s team isn’t as bad as public perception would have you believe. 

And that positions Lane Kiffin in a very tricky position this weekend: Alabama is ripe to be ‘got,’ but narratively, the pressure is starting to shift from the players and coaches in Tuscaloosa onto those in Oxford. 

If not now, when?

The Crimson Tide are definitely flawed. Saban’s bizarre QB carousel has sucked up most of the oxygen, but their offensive line has vastly underperformed (10 sacks allowed the last two weeks, worst-sack rate in the Power 5) — especially in the face of all the chest-puffing they did this offseason. 

They’re not a bully unit. They’ve been punk’d, including against the likes of a USF defense that couldn’t get a sack against a Western Kentucky offense that threw the ball 50 times. Oh, and Ole Miss has 10 sacks in three games. 

So another advantage for Kiffin and the Rebels?

Sure.

So to recap: Jaxson Dart is best quarterback in Saturday’s matchup. Heck, Nick Saban would sign up for Rebels backup Spencer Sanders right now.

Kiffin is certainly the best play-caller in the matchup. Ole Miss has more weapons. It might have the advantage in the trenches. It all sounds easy for the Rebels, right?

Cue the famed Lord of the Rings meme:

This is still Alabama. In Bryant-Denny Stadium. With Nick Saban as head coach. 

Ole Miss is not Texas. Not yet anyway. 

The Rebels have been solid this season. Adequate.

But for all of the nitpicking around Alabama’s warts, the Rebels needed a couple of late scores against a backup quarterback at Tulane to win that game going away. 

They allowed former Texas A&M transfer Haynes King to throw for 300 yards last weekend and needed a fourth-quarter barrage to turn a one-score game into a laugher. Unlike Alabama, the Rebels’ special teams are anything but. 

There’s also history to consider. 

Alabama has lost just two home games since 2016. Furthermore, the Tide haven’t dropped consecutive home games under Nick Saban since 2007 — the noted Louisiana-Monroe upset. 

That doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen again Saturday afternoon. Only Kiffin would have to buck even more history — his own. 

In his 12-year college head coaching career, the only time Lane Kiffin has beaten a Power 5 team that went on to win at least nine games was way back in 2011 against Oregon. I don’t know if Alabama will win nine games in 2023, but I wouldn’t bet on an 8-4 year, either. 

USC’s victory 12 years ago also happens to be the last time a Kiffin-coached team won on the road versus a Top 25 conference opponent too. Again, 12 years ago. 

Kiffin has excelled at racking up Ws against non-conference patsies and games he’s supposed to win, but when the pressure has been amplified, his teams have wilted. 

Can the Rebels rise to the occasion on Saturday? 

If not now, when?

Many are ready to bury the Tide. To declare (again) that the dynasty is dead. To carve the tombstone. From trolling his former boss about allegedly demoting his new DC to mimicking Saban’s mannerisms at the podium, Kiffin is wearing the cape of the executioner.

There’s a lot of pressure in that, no matter who is the actual “underdog.”

The last time Kiffin was this far out on front street facing Saban and the Tide he told America, “To get your popcorn ready” and found himself down 28-0 in a flash. 

So good luck. 

If not now, when?